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181. Long-Term Energy Security Risks for Europe: A Sector-Specific Approach

Author:
Christian Egenhofer, Arno Behrens, and Arianna Checchi
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The aim of the paper is to identify and evaluate existing and potential EU energy supply risks on the basis of a sector-specific approach. Moving away from common generalisations on security of energy supply as well as from those studies that focus only on one sector, it brings together all types of fuel and analyses the risks related to each of them. The result is a comprehensive picture of the energy security challenges faced by the EU in the long-term. The paper can be seen as a tool to avoid overlapping, incoherence and contradictions in the process of assessing security of supply and aims to formulate a consistent and more unified European energy policy.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

182. Bilateral Disputes between EU Member States and Russia

Author:
Mathias Roth
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Over the past years, a series of bilateral disputes between EU member states and Moscow have significantly affected EU–Russian relations and exposed sharp internal divisions over the EU's approach towards Russia. Despite their potential for having a highly disruptive impact on EU foreign policy, the EU still lacks a consensus on how to handle bilateral disputes. This paper employs a case-study approach to provide an in-depth analysis of selected disputes and reviews several questions of importance for the coherence of EU policy towards Russia: What kinds of issues are at the centre of bilateral disputes? What strategies do member states adopt to resolve them? Under what circumstances are disputes raised to the EU level? The paper concludes that the scope of 'EU solidarity' in bilateral disputes remains deeply contested and draws on insights from the case studies to propose a set of guidelines for the EU's approach to bilateral disputes.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moscow

183. What lessons from the 1930s?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores three areas in which the experience of the Great Depression might be relevant today: monetary policy, fiscal policy and the systemic stability of the banking system. We confirm the consensus on monetary policy: deflation must be avoided. With regard to fiscal policy, the picture is less clear. We cannot confirm a widespread opinion according to which fiscal policy did not work because it was not tried. We find that fiscal policy went to the limit of what was possible within the confines of sustainability, as they existed then. Our investigation of the US banking system shows a surprising resilience of the sector: commercial banking operations (deposit-taking and lending) remained profitable even during the worst years. This suggests one policy conclusion: At present the authorities in both the US and Europe have little choice but to make up for the losses on 'legacy' assets and wait for banks to earn back their capital. But to prevent future crises of this type, one should make sure that losses from the investment banking arms cannot impair commercial banking operations. At least a partial separation of commercial and investment banking thus seems justified by the greater stability of commercial banking operations.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

184. The European Parliament – more powerful, less legitimate? An outlook for the 7th legislature

Author:
Julia De Clerck-Sachsse and Piotr Maciej Kaczyński
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
At the end of the 6th legislature, fears that enlargement would hamper the workings of the European Parliament have largely proved unfounded. Despite the influx of a large number of new members to Parliament, parties have remained cohesive, and legislative output has remained steady. Moreover, after an initial phase of adaptation, MEPs from new member states have been increasingly socialised into the EP structure. Challenges have arisen in a rather different field, however. In order to remain efficient in the face of increasing complexity, the EP has had to streamline its working procedures, moving more decisions to parliamentary committees and cutting down time for debate. This paper argues that measures to increase the efficiency of the EP, most notably the trend towards speeding up agreements with the Council (1st reading agreements) run the risk of undermining the EP's role as a forum of debate. Should bureaucratisation increasingly trump politicisation, the legitimacy of the EP will be undermined, and voters will become ever more alienated from its work. For the 7th legislature of the European Parliament therefore, it is crucial to balance efficiency of output with a more politicised policy style that is able to capture public interest.
Topic:
Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

185. The Effect of the Financial Crisis on Systemic Trust

Author:
Felix Roth
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The financial crisis had a significant impact on the levels of trust that citizens place in the system and its institutions. Recent data from Eurobarometer show a significant fall in confidence on the part of European citizens in the EU's institutions. For the first time since its creation, a majority of European citizens no longer trust the European Central Bank. However, confidence levels in national governments have actually risen, supporting a contrasting trend between confidence levels in European and national institutions. This decrease in confidence towards the ECB is flanked in the case of Germany by strong anti-capitalist sentiments and a sharp decline in support for the social market economy.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

186. Lost Voters: Participation in EU elections and the case for compulsory voting

Author:
Anthoula Malkopoulou
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The malaise among Europe's voting citizens with regard to the European Parliament elections casts a shadow over the EU's commitment to political participation and democratic values. Not only do EU elections hold little political relevance next to national electoral cycles, but voters are also lost in the EU's labyrinth of accountability. Yet, what appears as an insurmountable obstacle to the legitimacy of Europe's decision-making mechanisms can be translated into an opportunity for voting system reforms. One way to address the problem of widespread abstention might be to legislate on the obligation to vote. This paper explores compulsory voting systems in a number of developed democracies worldwide and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of introducing such a measure in the EU.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Education
Political Geography:
Europe

187. Consumer Bankruptcy Regimes and Credit Default in the US and Europe

Author:
Maria Gerhardt
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This CEPS Working Document explains the consumer bankruptcy procedures in the US and the five largest European countries: the UK, Germany, France and Spain, plus Italy (which has no special legal provisions for consumer insolvency). All these countries have quite different approaches; the paper therefore presents a short overview of the insolvency procedures and trends in bankruptcy numbers for each country.
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

188. The Case for a Gas Transit Consortium in Ukraine: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

Author:
Michael Emerson and Elena Gnedina
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The 2009 gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia has led to a severe drop in Russian gas supplies to some EU member states. The dispute has once again shown that the status quo is defective and unsustainable as a policy. This Policy Brief argues that – beyond ad hoc temporary measures, such as the monitoring by EU experts agreed on January 12th and the 2009-10 price agreement apparently reached on January 18th – the problem needs a comprehensive and robust solution. This would be a gas transit consortium, bringing all major stakeholders – Gazprom, Naftohaz, one or a few European energy companies, and the international financial institutions – to jointly manage the trans-Ukrainian trunk pipeline. The consortium agreement would be underwritten politic ally and legally by a tripartite treaty to be ratified by the EU, Russia and Ukraine. The consortium should be bound by European standards of transparency, corporate governance and accounting in order to tackle the major problem – the lack of trust – in the EU- Ukraine-Russia energy triangle.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

189. Somalia and the Pirates

Author:
Rob de Wijk and David M Anderson
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Even though kidnappings, killings, attacks on UN and NGO compounds, suicide bombings, and the assassinations of local judges and other public figures, and the many other features of lawlessness in the Horn of Africa have become so commonplace that they are rarely now reported by European news media, from September 2008 Somalia once again dominated the news agenda. In that month pirates operating from small ports and harbours along Somalia's eastern coast mounted a series of successful attacks against international shipping, first capturing a Ukrainian vessel with its cargo of heavy armaments bound for southern Sudan (via the Kenyan port of Mombasa), and then intercepting a number of container ships before mounting an attack on a passenger vessel that was repelled by the crew. Finally, in November, the pirates landed the prize of a fully-laden Saudi-owned oil tanker. By the end of the year the pirate gangs operating out of Eyl, Haradheere and other harbours along the desolate eastern coast of Puntland, were reckoned to be holding no fewer than 40 vessels for ransom, with more than 200 crew members in captivity.
Topic:
Crime, International Law, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Somalia

190. Optimisation of Central Asian and Eurasian Trans-Continental Land Transport Corridors

Author:
Michael Emerson and Evgeny Vinokurov
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
There is at present an overlapping but inadequately coordinated combination of strategic trans-continental transport corridors or axes stretching across the Eurasian landmass, centred on or around Central Asia. There are three such initiatives - from the EU, China and the Asian Development Bank, and the Eurasian Economic Community. This paper reviews these several strategic transport maps, and makes proposals for their coordination and rationalisation. So far the EU Central Asia strategy has not paid much attention to these questions. However the EU's own initiatives (the Pan-European Axes and the TRACECA programme) are in need of updating and revision to take into account major investments being made by other parties. In particular the case is made for a 'Central Eurasian Corridor' for rail and road that would reach from Central Europe across Ukraine and Southern Russia into West Kazakhstan, and thence to the East Kazakh border with China, thus joining up with and completing the West China-West Europe corridor promoted by the Asian Development Bank. There should also be a North-South corridor that would cross over this Central Eurasian Corridor in West Kazakhstan and lead south to the Middle East and South Asia. These adaptations of existing plans could become an exemplary case of cooperation between Central Asia and all the major economic powers of the Eurasian landmass.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan