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161. Towards a Euro(pean) Monetary Fund

Author:
Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The case of Greece has ushered in the second phase of the financial crisis, namely that of sovereign default. Members of the euro area were supposed to be shielded from a financial market meltdown. But, after excess spending during the period of easy credit, several euro area members are now grappling with the implosion of credit-financed construction and consumption booms. Greece is the weakest of the weak links, given its high public debt (around 120% of GDP), compounded by a government budget deficit of almost 13% of GDP, a huge external deficit of 11% of GDP and the loss of credibility from its repeated cheating on budget reports.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

162. The Foreign Policy of the EU in the Palestinian Territory

Author:
Rouba Al-Fattal
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Fifteen years after its launch, the impact of the Barcelona Process on the Palestinian Territories is in need of a reassessment. Despite some initial improvements in the political and economic structures, the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership alone has failed to anchor a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians. In response, the European Neighbourhood Policy was launched to bring out a number of new foreign policy instruments, which induced substantial reforms. Yet the win by Hamas in the 2006 elections brought a halt to the EU's aid and diplomacy. This boycott proved detrimental, as it widened the rift between the main parties to the point of no reconciliation. Whether the Union for the Mediterranean proves any better than its predecessor policies in the region remains to be seen. This publication aims at providing a broad picture of the EU's policies towards the Palestinian Territories, in order to draw lessons from them and offer proposals for the way ahead.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

163. The MiFID Metamorphosis

Author:
Karel Lannoo and Diego Valiante
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), adopted by the EU in April 2004 and implemented at Member State level by the end of 2007, has begun to achieve real success in transforming the EU's securities markets landscape. Judging from market data and sector publications, the Directive contributed to a revolution in trading methods and huge investments in technology, which have brought the EU and US markets closer together. Technology-driven systems, such as algorithmic trading and smart-order routing, have become the mainstream in trading process, with speed of trading and reduction of 'latency' being the key objectives. Large investments in market infrastructures are trying to strike the right balance between high capacity and speed, and low operational and technological risks that represent a future threat for these platforms, even in the post-trading space.
Political Geography:
Europe

164. Regulatory Challenges for the EU Asset Management Industry

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The European asset management industry is feeling squeezed from all sides, as a result of growing prudential, product and conduct regulation. A new Directive, UCITS IV, has only just been enacted, and already new challenges are emerging in the regulation of hedge and venture capital funds, the review of the regulatory regime for depositaries (or financial custodians) and amendments to the MiFID Directive.2 In addition, a new European supervisory framework is in the making, which implies much stricter controls on enforcement. These changes are taking place in the context of one of the largest declines suffered by the industry in the last two decades, from which many fund managers have not yet recovered. The era of light regulation is thus definitely over.
Topic:
Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

165. On High Stakes, Stakeholders and Bulgaria's EU Membership

Author:
Antoinette Primatarova
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues against the view that Bulgaria's EU accession was premature and that the mechanism for cooperation and the verification of progress (CVM) is not delivering. The EU's continued leverage and the efficacy of the CVM are explained in a framework that goes beyond the dual-conditionality paradigm of incentives and sanctions, and beyond the unitary players model of EU–Bulgarian relations. In this framework, the CVM is viewed as an instrument for supportive reinforcement rather than for the imposition of sanctions. Furthermore, it is seen as targeting not just the government, but all Bulgarian stakeholders. The CVM is regarded as very effective at the level of public opinion and civil society, and as a mechanism that contributes to 'sandwiching' reform-reluctant Bulgarian governments between pressure from Brussels and domestic pressure for reforms. The CVM is also deemed useful for Bulgaria's further Europeanisation beyond the narrower pre-accession phase of 'EU-isation'. The paper suggests that eventual post-accession benchmarks might be appropriate in the process of further EU enlargement if properly understood as instruments for granting support and if discussed broadly with stakeholders beyond the executive. Concerning the efficiency/legitimacy dilemma, it is asserted that the CVM is an opportunity for increasing the EU's legitimacy.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Bulgaria

166. The Transformational Impact of EMU and the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Francesco Paolo Mongelli
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The headwinds facing the euro area are many and substantial: there is no pretence of denial. While most attention is correctly devoted to the size of rescue packages for some countries and the terms of crisis management and resolution mechanisms, we argue that these challenges must also be met from within the euro area. We are aided by a simple framework illustrating how the benefits the euro can generate depend on the degree of openness, flexibility and income correlation among euro area countries. Sharing the euro has steadily transformed euro area economies that are now deeply interconnected. This is generating largely benign effects that represent the intrinsic value of the euro area: it is a shared asset. Yet, such integration has provided the ground for the transmission of the sovereign crisis: through financial exposure, trade linkages and cross-country asset ownership.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

167. A Renewed Political Deal for Sustainable Growth within the Eurozone and the EU: An Open Letter to the President of the European Council

Author:
Daniel Gros, Stefano Micossi, Richard Baldwin, Giuliano Amato, and Pier Carlo Padoan
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Under current policies, the European Union will only be able to pull itself out of low growth and high unemployment very slowly – too slowly to exclude dangerous economic and political assaults on the Union's continuing cohesion and viability. What is needed is a substantial increase in the EU output growth rate, which has been persistently low for too long a time. With low growth, sovereign debt sustainability in a number of member states will remain uncertain, possibly leading to renewed strains in financial markets and rising spreads that will aggravate the costs of budgetary consolidation. The divergences in productivity and competitiveness and the current external imbalances they engendered can be unwound at an acceptable cost only if growth accelerates in the core and the periphery. On present trends, the adjustment burden might be unbearable for peripheral countries and generate strains that may eventually undermine the euro.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

168. Consumer Valuation of Energy Supply Security: An Analysis of Survey Results in Three EU Countries

Author:
Wan-Jung Chou, Alistair Hunt, Anil Markandya, Andrea Bigano, Roberta Pierfederici, and Stephane La Branche
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
There is a decided movement in EU energy markets towards a deregulated framework. This framework, however, might lack the necessary incentive structure for generators to maintain high service reliability, thus increasing the risk of generation and transmission outages. Faced with such a challenge, it is crucial for policy-makers to envisage consumer valuation of service reliability in the future so that an acceptable combination of regulatory and economic tools can be applied to maintain adequate security of energy supply that is socially optimal and economically efficient.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

169. Europe's Electricity Supply Security: Strengthening the Chain

Author:
Michele Benini
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Efficient development of electricity transmission infrastructure is crucial to achieving EU targets for a secure, competitive and sustainable electricity supply. However, many uncertainties, such as future load demand, generation supply, electricity prices and increasing time requirements for the realisation of transmission infrastructures in member states, increase the risk that these targets will not be reached. Given the forecasted increase of distributed generation and the introduction of demand response techniques to control load, new decentralised network architectures must be defined to guarantee the system's efficient use and stability. Each link in the chain of electricity security of supply is crucial, from generation to transmission to distribution to demand.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

170. Europe's Coal Supply Security: Obstacles to Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage

Author:
Christian von Hirschhausen, Clemens Haftendorn, Johannes Herold, Franziska Holz, Anne Neumann, and Sophia Rüster
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Europe faces a paradox with respect to coal supply security. On the one hand, coal is a reliable fossil fuel, with ample reserves available from a large number of producers. Globally, coal use has risen at a rate of 4.9% annually in recent years (WCI, 2010). Yet on the other hand, Europe's climate policy objectives will not allow continued use unless this 'dirtiest' of all fossil fuels can be transformed into a 'clean' one, e.g. via new carbon capture, transport and storage (CCTS) technology. CCTS, however, this requires substantial technological advances for application in the medium and long term (MIT, 2007). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2005) concludes that CCTS can contribute 15-55% of the cumulative emissions reduction effort through 2100, and assumes a major role in a portfolio of the low carbon technologies needed to mitigate climate change. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2008), CCTS is "the most important single new technology for CO2 savings" in both power generation and industry. However, the IEA's 2009 'Blue Map' scenario also states that 100 carbon capture plants, a minimum of 10,000 km of pipelines and storage of 1.2 GtCO2 are required for CCTS to become a serious abatement technology by 2020. We are nowhere close to these and might never get there.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe