Search

Begin New Search Political Geography Venezuela Publishing Institution Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

1. Venezuela's 2024 Elections: Understanding Participation under Unfree and Unfair Conditions

Author:
Ryan C. Berg and Henry Ziemer
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
For many observers, the upcoming presidential elections in Venezuela serve as a focal point on which to pin hopes for a democratic transition. However, the challenges faced by the opposition—from internal divisions to an ongoing humanitarian crisis, captured electoral institutions, and persistent human rights abuses—cannot be understated. While there is potential for elections in 2024 to generate momentum and re-galvanize resistance to the Maduro regime, the balance sheet of risks and rewards remains indecisive. This report breaks down the positive and negative aspects of elections in Venezuela and outlines three likely scenarios for policymakers to consider as Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election approaches.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

2. Venezuela’s Presidential Crisis and the Transition to Democracy

Author:
Jose Ignacio Hernandez G.
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Venezuela’s presidential crisis is caused by the absence of an elected president that can assume the presidency since January 10, 2019, the day that, according to the Venezuelan Constitution, a new presidential term began. Articles 230 and 231 of Venezuela’s constitution establish that the presidential term begins on January 10 of each term (the inauguration day). That day, according to the constitution, the elected president must assume the presidency through an oath presented at the National Assembly (the Venezuelan Congress. Nicolás Maduro is claiming that he is the elected president because the Venezuelan electoral authority (the National Electoral Council) proclaimed him as Venezuela’s president after the May 20 election. However, that election was convened by the illegitimate national constituent assembly that does not have the authority to organize elections according to the constitution. In addition, that process was organized in violation of several political rights, basically, due to the unconstitutional ban declared on the main political parties and leaders. Also, the May 20 election violated the principle of transparency during all the electoral cycle. Finally, Maduro´s regime used the complex humanitarian emergency as a political tool to exercise coercion over the voters. This is why the National Assembly declared such elections as non-existent. Also, more than 50 countries decided not to recognize that election. As a result, Nicolás Maduro cannot be recognized as the legitimately elected president in Venezuela, as was declared by the Lima Group in a statement dated January 4, 2019. Because of this, he is usurping the presidency of Venezuela, as a non-elected president in charge of the office.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Constitution, and Transition
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

3. Identifying and Responding to Criminal Threats from Venezuela

Author:
Moises Rendon and Arianna Kohan
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Nicolás Maduro, following former president Hugo Chavez’s legacy, fostered the creation of a criminalized state in Venezuela that uses transnational organized crime as an instrument of state power.1 According to a research report published after five years of fieldwork, the Venezuelan state is part of a consortium of criminalized actors working in concert with other states and nonstate actors with shared objectives. This brief is meant to describe the ongoing criminal activities in Venezuela, including global money laundering, corruption, narcotrafficking, illegal mining, and the role of foreign nations and non-state actors in Venezuela. The breadth of these criminal activities helps demonstrate why the Maduro regime remains in power despite stiff international and domestic pressure. This brief provides specific policy recommendations for Venezuela’s interim government led by Juan Guaidó, as well as for the United States and other like-minded countries. These policy recommendations include prosecutions, sanctions, and the use of other tools that can help increase pressure on the Maduro regime more efficiently.
Topic:
Law, Illegal Trade, and Criminology
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

4. Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?

Author:
Moises Rendon and Max Price
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
As the United States, the Lima Group, the European Union, and other like-minded nations continue to increase pressure on the regime of Nicolás Maduro with diplomatic measures such as challenging his government’s legitimacy, the question remains as to whether sanctions are an effective measure for changing the behavior of the Venezuelan regime and pushing Maduro to step down. Despite external support by Russia, Cuba, China, and a few others, Maduro is more alienated on the world stage than ever before. That said, stiff sanctions and diplomatic isolation have not yet convinced Maduro to negotiate his exit while his regime has proven to be resilient and adaptable . As the humanitarian crisis deteriorates further, a debate has raged on among policymakers who worry that sanctions may be worsening conditions for Venezuelan citizens. This brief provides clarity on this complex issue. This report will assess the efficacy of past sanctions, as well as their impact on standards of living in Venezuela, and provide recommendations for improving policy in this area.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

5. How the Blockchain Can Help Venezuela’s Future Recovery Promoting Sound Policy Foundations for Venezuela’s Postcrisis Recovery and Reform

Author:
Moises Rendon
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Nicolas Maduro’s misguided attempt to create a government-controlled and natural resource-backed cryptocurrency (“Petro”) is nothing more than a desperate effort to try to facilitate international finance while avoiding U.S. sanctions on new debt issuance. However, there remains the potential for blockchain platforms to empower Venezuelans through legitimate means during the country’s future recovery. These benefits can extend to future government institutions, the private sector, and nonprofit organizations. Blockchain technology can radically shape the rebuilding of Venezuela during a “Day After” scenario for the better.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Sanctions, Cryptocurrencies, and Recovery
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Venezuela, and North America

6. Venezuela’s Crisis Is Now a Regional Humanitarian Disaster

Author:
Moises Rendon and Mark L Schneider
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The Issue Venezuela has been subjected to an unprecedented man-made humanitarian crisis, including extreme food and medicine shortages, thousands of children dying of malnutrition, and malnourished people contracting formerly eradicated diseases. While Venezuela’s dictatorial regime has repeatedly rejected humanitarian aid from the outside, the country’s humanitarian, economic, social, and institutional collapse, along with fierce political repression, have caused 1.2 million Venezuelans to flee the country over the past two years, with hundreds of thousands more and possibly millions expected to flee in the future. Our Recommendations Encourage the United States and other like-minded countries to provide leadership on the diplomatic and assistance fronts to help respond to this crisis. Work to build consensus within the international community on the urgency of the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis and to agree on steps to address the crisis, including convening a high-level task force. Develop a comprehensive policy response that includes immediate relief efforts on Venezuela’s border with Colombia and within Venezuela using innovative mechanisms due to the current limited humanitarian access. Provide immediate technical assistance to help estimate the level of need and identify available resources. Support and engage civil society and local actors, including nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the private sector, and entrepreneurs, as well as the Venezuelan diaspora community, to help limit the suffering of the Venezuelan people. Encourage host countries to grant temporary protected status to Venezuelans and create a broader burden-sharing arrangement in the region for processing those seeking refuge, following the recent guidelines by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Support the use of innovative technology tools, such as blockchain and digital currencies, to facilitate distribution of aid within and beyond Venezuela.
Topic:
Health, Poverty, United Nations, Food, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, South America, and Venezuela

7. Building Networks of Diplomatic Cooperation

Author:
Daniel F. Runde and Amasia Zargarian
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The United States currently maintains formal diplomatic relations with all but five United Nations member-states. In addition to these five countries, there are states—including Venezuela—with which U.S. relations continue to be strained. In most such relationships, cooperation across societies is challenging, hampered by seemingly insurmountable political differences between governments. When official cooperation at the higher levels of government proves infeasible, it is often in the interest of both countries to pursue alternative, more informal approaches, sometimes referred to as "Track II diplomacy." Such forms of diplomacy allow for exchanges of people and ideas to build confidence between the two sides. Ideally, the modest gains in trust from Track II diplomacy will translate into a broader opening for political rapprochement.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Venezuela

8. Building Networks of Diplomatic Cooperation: Opportunities for U.S.-Venezuela Science Cooperation

Author:
Daniel F. Runde and Amasia Zargarian
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The United States currently maintains formal diplomatic relations with all but five United Nations member-states. In addition to these five countries, there are states—including Venezuela—with which U.S. relations continue to be strained. In most such relationships, cooperation across societies is challenging, hampered by seemingly insurmountable political differences between governments. When official cooperation at the higher levels of government proves infeasible, it is often in the interest of both countries to pursue alternative, more informal approaches, sometimes referred to as "Track II diplomacy" Such forms of diplomacy allow for exchanges of people and ideas to build confidence between the two sides. Ideally, the modest gains in trust from Track II diplomacy will translate into a broader opening for political rapprochement.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, South America, and Venezuela

9. Is It Interests or Values?

Author:
Joseph Ferguson
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
At the conclusion of the final summit meeting between Presidents George Bush and Vladimir Putin at the Russian resort of Sochi in early April, relations between Moscow and Washington appeared to have righted themselves. The cordial meeting between the outgoing presidents left a sense of optimism in both Moscow and in the West that U.S.-Russia relations would improve until at least the fall presidential elections in the United States. Things have quieted down between the two nations over the last quarter, as the leadership of both countries has gone about business at home and has lessened (though not ceased) the often-negative rhetoric. But when the summer concludes, Russia will again loom large in U.S. political debates, and the big questions of U.S. foreign policy – whether they revolve around Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Northeast Asia, or even Venezuela – will necessarily include Russia policy. And as President Dmitry Medvedev unveils his own version of “sovereign democracy,” U.S. foreign policymakers will be forced to address the fundamental question of whether U.S. policy toward Moscow is centered on its strategic interests, or on democratic values.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Iraq, Washington, Moscow, Venezuela, and Northeast Asia