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61. Energizing Rio+20: How the United States Can Promote Sustainable Energy for All at the 2012 Earth Summit

Author:
Nigel Purvis and Abigail Jones
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Worldwide, about 1.3 billion people lack access to electricity (one in five people), while unreliable electricity networks serve another 1 billion people. Roughly 2.7 billion—about 40 percent of the global population—lack access to clean cooking fuels. Instead, dirty, sometimes scarce and expensive fuels such as kerosene, candles, wood, animal waste, and crop residues power the lives of the energy poor, who pay disproportionately high costs and receive very poor quality in return. More than 95 percent of the energy poor are either in sub-Saharan Africa or developing Asia, while 84 percent are in rural areas—the same regions that are the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Asia

62. The Quality of Official Development Assistance Assessment 2009: Is Aid Quality Improving?

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Homi Kharas, and Rita Perakis
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This report presents the results of the second edition of the Quality of Official Development Assistance (QuODA) assessment, with a focus on the changes that have occurred in donor performance since the first edition. These results were released in summary form in November, 2011, just before the Fourth High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan, South Korea.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
South Korea

63. Capital Requirements under Basel III in Latin America: The Cases of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez, Arturo J. Galindo, and Marielle del Valle
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
A number of banks in developed countries argue that the new capital requirements under Basel III are too stringent and that implementing the proposed regulation would require raising large amounts of capital, with adverse consequences on credit and the cost of finance. In contrast, many emerging market economies claim that their systems are adequately capitalized and that they have no problems with implementing the new capital requirements. This paper conducts a detailed calculation of capital held by the banks in four Latin American countries—known as the Andean countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru—and assesses the potential effects of full compliance with the capital requirements under Basel III. The conclusions are positive and show that while capital would decline somewhat in these countries after they make adjustments to comply with the new definition of capital under Basel III, they would still meet the Basel III recommendations on capital requirements. More importantly, these countries would hold Tier capital to risk-weighted-asset ratios significantly above the 8.5 percent requirement under Basel III. That is, not only the quantity, but also the quality of capital is adequate in the countries under study. While encouraging, these results should not be taken as a panacea since the new regulations are only effective if coupled with appropriate risk management and supervision mechanisms to control the build-up of excessive risk-taking by banks. Further research into these areas is needed for a complete assessment of the strength of banks in the Andean countries.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Colombia, Latin America, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia

64. Adolescent Fertility in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Effects and Solutions

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Kate McQueston, and Rachel Silverman
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Adolescent fertility in low- and middle-income countries presents a severe impediment to development and can lead to school dropout, lost productivity, and the intergenerational transmission of poverty. However, there is debate about whether adolescent pregnancy is a problem in and of itself or merely symptomatic of deeper, ingrained disadvantage. To inform policy choices and create a revised research agenda for population and development, this paper aggregates recent quantitative evidence on the socioeconomic consequences of and methods to reduce of teenage pregnancy in the developing world. The review finds variable results for all indicator types with the partial exception of knowledge-based indicators, which increased in response to almost all evaluating interventions, though it is not clear that such interventions necessarily lead to short- or long term-behavior change. The evidence base supporting the effectiveness of conditional cash transfers was relatively strong in comparison to other interventions. Similarly, programs that lowered barriers to attending school or increased the opportunity cost of school absence are also supported by the literature. On the basis of these findings, the authors argue that donors should adopt a rights-based approach to adolescent fertility and shift their focus from the proximate to distal causes of pregnancy, including human rights abuses, gender inequality, child marriage, and socioeconomic marginalization. Further research should be conducted to strengthen the evidence base by 1) establishing causality, 2) understanding the differential impacts of adolescent fertility in different contexts, and 3) investigating other the impact of adolescent fertility on other socioeconomic outcomes, such as labor participation, productivity, and the intergenerational transmission of poverty.
Topic:
Democratization, Demographics, Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Youth Culture

65. MDGs 2.0: What Goals, Targets, and Timeframe?

Author:
Charles Kenny, Andy Sumner, and Jonathan Karver
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are widely cited as the primary yardstick against which advances in international development efforts are to be judged. At the same time, the Goals will be met or missed by 2015. It is not too early to start asking 'what next?' This paper builds on a discussion that has already begun to address potential approaches, goals and target indicators to help inform the process of developing a second generation of MDGs or 'MDGs 2.0.' The paper outlines potential goal areas based on the original Millennium Declaration, the timeframe for any MDGs 2.0 and attempts to calculate some reasonable targets associated with those goal areas.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Post Colonialism, and Political Theory

66. Competitiveness in Central America: The Road to Sustained Growth and Poverty Reduction

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez, José Luis Guasch, and Veronica Gonzales
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Over the last decade, Central American countries—Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua—have made significant progress in social and economic areas. In particular, they have stabilized their economies after decades of civil war and the economic volatility that plagued the region through the 1990s. Most countries in Central America have taken important steps to improve their business climates, particularly by enhancing macroeconomic stability, improving the soundness of their financial systems, making improvements in infrastructure services and trade facilitation, reducing red tape, and simplifying their regulatory and tax frameworks. As a result, before the 2008 financial crisis, GDP per capita in Central America grew at an average rate of 3 percent per year from 2003 to 2008, which, albeit modest, was the most robust and stable period of growth the region had witnessed since the early 1990s. However, despite this achievement, Central American economies are still lagging behind the rest of Latin America and other middle-income countries by per-capita growth rates of 0.5 to 2 percentage points. Even more worrying are the levels of poverty and inequality, which show the lack of inclusiveness in their growth models. Moreover, recent developments in the region show a number of red flags that are weakening macroeconomic and democratic stability. Significant structural changes are urgently needed to secure sustained and inclusive growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Central America

67. No Longer Poor: Ghana's New Income Status and Implications of Graduation from IDA

Author:
Todd Moss and Stephanie Majerowicz
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Ghana's largest and most important creditor for the past three decades has been the International Development Association (IDA), the soft loan window of the World Bank. That will soon come to an end. The combination of Ghana's rapid economic growth and the recent GDP rebasing exercise means that Ghana suddenly finds itself above the income limit for IDA eligibility. Formal graduation is imminent and comes with significant implications for access to concessional finance, debt, and relations with other creditors. This paper considers the specific questions related to Ghana's relationship with the World Bank, as well as the broader questions about the country's new middle-income status.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Poverty, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

68. Escaping Capability Traps through Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA)

Author:
Lant Pritchett, Michael Woolcock, and Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Many reform initiatives in developing countries fail to achieve sustained improvements in performance because they are merely isomorphic mimicry—that is, governments and organizations pretend to reform by changing what policies or organizations look like rather than what they actually do. In addition, the flow of development resources and legitimacy without demonstrated improvements in performance undermines the impetus for effective action to build state capability or improve performance. This dynamic facilitates “capability traps” in which state capability stagnates, or even deteriorates, over long periods of time even though governments remain engaged in developmental rhetoric and continue to receive development resources. How can countries escape capability traps? We propose an approach, Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA), based on four core principles, each of which stands in sharp contrast with the standard approaches. First, PDIA focuses on solving locally nominated and defined problems in performance (as opposed to transplanting preconceived and packaged “best practice” solutions). Second, it seeks to create an authorizing environment for decision-making that encourages positive deviance and experimentation (as opposed to designing projects and programs and then requiring agents to implement them exactly as designed). Third, it embeds this experimentation in tight feedback loops that facilitate rapid experiential learning (as opposed to enduring long lag times in learning from ex post “evaluation”). Fourth, it actively engages broad sets of agents to ensure that reforms are viable, legitimate, relevant, and supportable (as opposed to a narrow set of external experts promoting the top-down diffusion of innovation).
Topic:
Development, Economics, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance

69. Renewable Resource Shocks and Conflict in India's Maoist Belt

Author:
Devesh Kapur, Kishore Gawande, and Shanker Satyanath
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Is there a causal relationship between shocks to renewable natural resources, such as agricultural and forest lands, and the intensity of conflict? In this paper, we conduct a rigorous econometric analysis of a civil conflict that the Indian Prime Minister has called the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by his country, the so-called Maoist conflict. We focus on over-time within-district variation in the intensity of conflict in the states where this conflict is primarily located. Using a novel data set of killings, we find that adverse renewable resource shocks have a robust, significant association with the intensity of conflict. A one standard deviation decrease in our measure of renewable resources increases killings by 12.5 percent contemporaneously, 9.7 percent after a year, and 42.2 percent after two years. Our instrumental variables strategy allows us to interpret these findings in a causal manner.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Economics, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

70. GAVI's Future: Steps to Build Strategic Leadership, Financial Sustainability, and Better Partnerships

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Lisa Carty, J. Stephen Morrison, and Margaret Reeves
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
On June 13, the GAVI Alliance convenes its first pledging conference in London with the aim of securing $3.7 billion to immunize an additional 250 million children by 2015. Founded in 2000, GAVI is an innovative partnership that combines donors, partner governments, UNICEF, WHO, civil society, and the private sector. It is designed to accelerate the financing and delivery of selected vaccines and related health services to the world's most disadvantaged populations. As GAVI enters its second decade of operations, it has established itself as a quiet success. And as it strives to sustain and expand its model of operations, it simultaneously strives to make itself better known and understood; better led, managed, and resourced; better assured of essential high-level political and financial support; and better served by well-functioning relations with its many essential partners.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Health, and Foreign Aid