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71. A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War

Author:
Ali Fisunoğlu
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The spread of intrastate war has gained increasing prominence, especially in the recent past. This paper studies the spread of intrastate war as a result of another intrastate war in a neighboring country using a system dynamics modeling approach. The model employed is a modification of the SIR, a spread of disease model taken from epidemiology. Revising the SIR model with relevant political and economic variables, the model seeks to explain the mechanism through which an intrastate conflict is spread from an "infected" country to a "susceptible" country. Although diffusion and contagion of civil wars have been widely examined in the past, a dynamic modeling approach has not been adequately used in this area. Consistent with the existing literature, the results of the model suggest that refugees are a means to carry the conflict disease from the initial country by disturbing economic and social dynamics of the host whereas political capacity acts as the immune system, reducing the likelihood of conflict contagion. The results of the simulations, obtained using theoretical parameters, are mainly consistent with the expectations.
Topic:
War, Refugees, Conflict, and State
Political Geography:
Global Focus

72. State Human Rights Performance and Recommendations under the Universal Periodic Review

Author:
Eric Cox
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This paper analyzes recommendations made to states under the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) Universal Periodic Review (UPR) in order to determine whether or not the UPR is making meaningful recommendations to states under review. The UPR reviews the human rights of all UN Member States every four years. During the review, each state receives a number of recommendations from other UN member states. This paper uses data from UPR Info to determine if states with better human rights performance as measured by the CIRI human rights data project receive fewer recommendations than states with worse performance. It finds that, even when controlling for other factors, states with worse records on civil and political rights generally receive more recommendations than states with better records. States with lower scores from CIRI on women's economic and political rights receive more recommendations regarding women's issues than states with higher scores. These findings hold regardless of region, suggesting that, at a minimum, the UPR process is identifying violators of human rights.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, and Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

73. Broadening the Horizons of the “International” by Historicizing it: Comparative Historical Analysis

Author:
Mustafa Serdar Palabıyık
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article intends to analyze the use of comparative historical analysis (CHA) in the discipline of International Relations (IR). After describing the historical evolution and fundamental premises of CHA, the article continues with the classification of CHA. Then the strengths and weaknesses of the method as well as its utilization by various theories of IR are discussed. The second part of the article deals with the employment of CHA by the author of this article in his own research design, in order to give an idea that how CHA might contribute to a better understanding of the “international”. In doing that, the advantages and disadvantages of the method are revisited in a way to show the contributions provided as well as the difficulties encountered in practice. The article concludes that CHA might contribute to the study of IR by enhancing interdisciplinary approaches and by adding a socio-historical depth to the ‘international’, which helps to overcome historicism and presentism at the same time.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Academia, and Political Analysis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

74. Discourse Analysis: Strengths and Shortcomings

Author:
Senem Aydın-Düzgit
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Discourse analysis is a much-favoured textual analysis method among constructivist and critically minded International Relations scholars interested in the impact of identity, meaning, and discourse on world politics. The aim of this article is to guide students of Turkish IR in their choice and use of this method. Written by two Turkish IR scholars who have employed discourse analysis in their past and present research, this article also includes a personal reflection on its strengths and shortcomings. The first section of the article presents an overview of the conceptual and epistemological underpinnings of discourse analysis, while charting the evolution of discourse analysis in IR since the late 1980s in three phases. The second section offers insight into the personal history of the researchers in employing discourse analysis in their previous and ongoing research, while the third section provides a how-to manual by performing discourse analysis of an actual text. The concluding section focuses on the challenges faced in the conduct of discourse analysis and the potential ways to overcome them, also drawing from the researchers’ own experiences in the field.
Topic:
International Relations, Inequality, Constructivism, Methods, Discourse, and Political Analysis
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

75. An Eclectic Methodological Approach in Analyzing Foreign Policy: Turkey’s Foreign Policy Roles and Events Dataset (TFPRED)

Author:
Ismail Erkam Sula
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article describes the steps in developing an eclectic coding scheme that utilizes the Role theory framework. Role theory proposes that foreign policy is conducted with an attempt to fulfill the role conceptions that decision-makers formulate. Studies utilizing this framework usually identify national role conceptions (NRCs) in the foreign policy speeches of decision-makers with various research techniques. Following the literature, this article first explains how to use content analysis in identifying the most frequently referred NRCs in Turkish Foreign Policy (TFP). Then, unlike the literature, it takes a step further and offers event data analysis to look at the performance of these NRCs as well. With such an approach, it develops the Turkish Foreign Policy Roles and Events Dataset (TFPRED). The TFPRED is a dataset that is the product of a combination of ‘hand-coded content analysis’ with ‘computer-assisted event data analysis’. The article presents a detailed explanation of the steps in using content analysis and event data analysis to build the TFPRED. It also explains the development of the eclectic methodological approach and gives an assessment of the author’s experiences in combining the two methods.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Research, Data, Content Analysis, and Social Science
Political Geography:
Global Focus

76. System Dynamics Modeling in International Relations

Author:
Ali Fisunoğlu
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article provides an introduction to system dynamics modeling with a particular focus on the use of system dynamics models in political science and international relations. A system dynamics approach offers an alternative to traditional qualitative and quantitative methods by providing a dynamic and endogenous point of view, which allows for understanding the dynamic interactions between variables and making short- and long-term projections for alternative policy choices. This approach is particularly useful to tackle the complex problems of contemporary politics, in which the solutions require combining the insights from different disciplines. Applications of a system dynamics approach in the social sciences cover a broad spectrum, from war initiation and termination to social inequality, from demographics to human development and democratization. This article starts by presenting the brief history of system dynamics models and their use in social sciences, and comparing a system dynamics approach to traditional qualitative and quantitative research methods by discussing the advantages and disadvantages of each one. This discussion is followed by the explanation of the essential components of system dynamics models. Finally, the article provides several applications from international relations via developing models of arms races and spread of intrastate conflicts.
Topic:
Politics, Conflict, Quantitative, Methods, and Arms Race
Political Geography:
Global Focus

77. An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Author:
Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article provides an introduction to the theoretical underpinnings of expected utility and game theory approaches in IR studies. It goes on to explore their application to a specific research subject, international bargaining on Iran’s nuclear program. In this application, the article presents forecasts about Iran’s nuclear program using a game theoretic, bounded rationality model called the expected utility model (Bueno de Mesquita 2002). Three analyses were made in December 2005, September 2006 and March 2007. All three forecasts appear to be in line with real-life developments regarding the issue. The results show that Iran has been losing international support since the analyses started, and the last forecast suggests a pro-US position supported by all major international actors. Also, all three analyses suggest that Russian and Chinese support is vital to curb the Iranian nuclear program.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Power, and Game Theory
Political Geography:
Iran and Global Focus

78. Automated Text Analysis and International Relations: The Introduction and Application of a Novel Technique for Twitter

Author:
Emre Hatipoğlu, İnanç Arin, Yücel Saygin, and Onur Gökçe
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Social media platforms, thanks to their inherent nature of quick and far-reaching dissemination of information, have gradually supplanted the conventional media and become the new loci of political communication. These platforms not only ease and expedite communication among crowds, but also provide researchers huge and easily accessible information. This huge information pool, if it is processed with a systematic analysis, can be a fruitful data source for researchers. Systematic analysis of data from social media, however, poses various challenges for political analysis. Significant advances in automated textual analysis have tried to address such challenges of social media data. This paper introduces one such novel technique to assist researchers doing textual analysis on Twitter. More specifically, we develop a clustering methodology based on Longest Common Subsequence Similarity Metric, which automatically groups tweets with similar content. To illustrate the usefulness of this technique, we present some of our findings from a project we conducted on Turkish sentiments on Twitter towards Syrian refugees.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Refugees, and Social Media
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Global Focus

79. Computational International Relations What Can Programming, Coding and Internet Research Do for the Discipline?

Author:
H. Akin Unver
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Computational Social Science emerged as a highly technical and popular discipline in the last few years, owing to the substantial advances in communication technology and daily production of vast quantities of personal data. As per capita data production significantly increased in the last decade, both in terms of its size (bytes) as well as its detail (heartrate monitors, internet-connected appliances, smartphones), social scientists’ ability to extract meaningful social, political and demographic information from digital data also increased. A vast methodological gap exists in ‘computational international relations’, which refers to the use of one or a combination of tools such as data mining, natural language processing, automated text analysis, web scraping, geospatial analysis and machine learning to provide larger and better organized data to test more advanced theories of IR. After providing an overview of the potentials of computational IR and how an IR scholar can establish technical proficiency in computer science (such as starting with Python, R, QGis, ArcGis or Github), this paper will focus on some of the author’s works in providing an idea for IR students on how to think about computational IR. The paper argues that computational methods transcend the methodological schism between qualitative and quantitative approaches and form a solid foundation in building truly multi-method research design.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Internet, Research, Digital Culture, Methods, and Computer Science
Political Geography:
Global Focus

80. Large-N Analysis in the Study of Conflict

Author:
Belgin San-Akca
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
In this paper, I examine the generation and use of large-N datasets and issues related to operationalization and measurement in the quantitative study of inter-state and intra-state conflict. Specifically, I critically evaluate the work on transnational dimensions of internal conflict and talk about my own journey related to my research on interactions between states and nonstate armed groups. I address the gaps in existing research, the use of proxy measures in large-N data analysis, and talk in detail about observational data collection and coding. I argue that future research should bridge the gap between studies of conflict across the fields of Comparative Politics and International Relations. I make suggestions laying the standards of academic scholarship in collecting data and increasing transparency in research.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil War, War, Research, Conflict, and Data
Political Geography:
Global Focus