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1. Amendments in the 2022 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Impacts and Perspectives

Author:
Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
After the global pandemic, rising global demand, as well as the impact of geopolitical and military tensions, have led to a significant rise in the prices of major energy carriers in recent years. In the context of this pandemic, the recession in the country's economy in 2020 was replaced by the process of rapid economic recovery in 2021. The significant increase in oil prices in Azerbaijan had a positive effect on the nominal amount of GDP, although the increase in nominal GDP was mainly due to the oil sector, the real growth was possible almost due to non-oil sectors. The economic situation for the past period of the current year, the medium-term socio-economic forecast indicators, and the performance of budget revenues more than expected made it necessary to revise the state budget for 2022.
Topic:
Oil, Budget, GDP, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

2. Assessment of Azerbaijani 2022 State Budget in Context of COVID-19

Author:
Narmina Gasimova
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The budget plan for 2022 envisages the primary goals for insurance of the economic growth in the upcoming year, emphasizing economic diversification as one of the key targets. Followed by the restoration of the liberated territories and recovery after the negative impact of the pandemic, the plan outlines a detailed analysis of fiscal policy forecasted for the year. An overview of the planned budget envisages the reliance of the economy on oil reserves and transfers obtained throughout it. To that end, approaches for further policies cover the creation of a favorable environment for the gradual replacement of oil revenues with non-oil revenues.
Topic:
Oil, Budget, Economic Growth, Diversification, COVID-19, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

3. Independent Assessment of the Implementation of the 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
This independent evaluation aims to investigate the implementation of the 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan. The pandemic, which has lasted since 2020, has brought significant changes in the world. The changes in terms of both quality and quantity were reflected in the economic environment and individual's livelihood. Because of the requirement for long-term quarantine conditions to battle the pandemic, both developed and developing countries have experienced economic downturns. The research comprises forecast indicators defined by the appropriate executive authority during the year, as well as the draft legislation on 2020 state budget implementation, in addition to the forecast indicators represented in the material provided with the original and updated draft state budget for 2020. The basic order is as follows; introduction, revenues, expenditures, fiscal sustainability, sequestration of costs, cost reduction, receipt of subsidies from the budget, optimization of receivables, distribution of expenditures, and debts. The results included graphical and tabular descriptions.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Budget, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

4. Amendments to state budget of Azerbaijan for 2020: Reasons and Expectations

Author:
Narmina Gasimova and Nigar İslamlı
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Nowadays, global economic growth has been severely affected beyond anything passed in nearly a century. The outbreak of the coronavirus disease has brought its negative impact and destructive outcome on the economies alongside with the sharp fluctuations in global energy and stock markets. There might be observed a subsequent sharp decline in the number of transactions and practical shutdown of many markets due to the large-scale quarantine and self-isolation measures. Taking into consideration the abovementioned factors, it becomes clear that there emerged a need to revise all economic forecasts for 2020-2021. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a decline of the global economic growth rate in April (-3%), but in accordance with the current circumstances, the figures were revised in June, representing a 4.9% decrease. In spite of a fact that Azerbaijan became one of the first countries among the post-soviet countries, that allocated the largest share of GDP, in order to eliminate the economic problems caused due to the pandemic, the impact of the emerged difficulties made a necessity to revise the budget.
Topic:
Budget, GDP, Economy, Coronavirus, IMF, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

5. 2021 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Independent View

Author:
Narmina Gasimova
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Restoring its territorial integrity, the Republic of Azerbaijan has entered a new era. The state authorities have to carry out restructure and infrastructure building tasks in the liberated territories to provide energy, utilities, transport infrastructure, and create conditions for life and business of citizens returning to their native lands. Therefore, one of the main features of the state budget for 2021 is the creation of financial security to implement the aforementioned honorable and responsible tasks. Along with their implementation, the budget for 2021 envisages the creation of financial guarantees for further improvement of the people's welfare, sustainable economic development, and implementation of state programs.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Budget, Economy, Transportation, and Utilities
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

6. The Azerbaijani economy in the first nine months of 2019: Brief Overview

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
CESD – the Center for Economic and Social Development – concluded its macro-economic survey results for the first nine months of 2019. According to the State Statistic Committee of Azerbaijan, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 2.5 % in January-September 2019 compared with the same period of previous year: The CESD’s figure for the same period was 2.0 %.
Topic:
Development, Budget, Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

7. 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Brief Independent Review

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
he Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Azerbaijan presented the draft of the 2020 State Budget. According to the document, the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Azerbaijan is expected to decline by 2020. The draft State Budget takes the expected cost per barrel in 2020 as US $55. Despite the fact that it is US $5 less than the previous year’s price, it doesn’t fully ensure related risks. Thus, CESD suggests to take US $50 per barrel for the state budget next year.
Topic:
Oil, Budget, GDP, and Finance
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

8. The CESD Assessment on the 2017 State Budget Project

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
According to the legislation on the Budget system, the legislative project on the state budget of the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2017 and the state and consolidated budget projects of 2017 were publicized on 29th of September, 2016. It has been three years that the legislative projects on the consolidated and state budgets of the Republic of Azerbaijan are being prepared amidst the absence of positive economic trends for the country. Specifically, during the preparation of 2017 state budget, external and internal economic impacts were considered at greater extent. As in previous years, the Center for Economic and Social Development has prepared a comparative analysis of the budget project publicized by the government. It is to be mentioned that, during the preparation of the analysis, the conversion of indicators into the foreign (US dollars) currency is carried out according to annual average currency indicators published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan, whereas the conversion of 2016 indicators into US dollars is conducted in accordance with the average exchange rate of first 8 months (1 US Dollars = 1, 56 manat) and 2017 indicators in accordance with the official exchange rate dated 29th September 2016 (1 US dollars = 1.6252 manat). The comparison of the budget project with previous years plays a prominent role in the forecasting of socio-economic trends for next year and the determination of state fiscal policy and the short-term and strategic position of the government in separate directions.
Topic:
Budget and Finance
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

9. Managing Resource Revenues in Oil-Rich CAREC Countries: The Case of Azerbaijan

Author:
Vugar Bayramov, Tim McNaught, and Elchin Rashidov
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The high inflow of oil revenues to Azerbaijan in recent years has led to large and unsustainable increases in government expenditures in the state budget and State Oil Fund of the Azerbaijan Republic. Given that oil revenues are exhaustible, volatile, and unpredictable, a sustainable fiscal policy must be enabled that allows for intergenerational equity, diversification in the economy, and predictable annual revenues that reduce pressures of appreciation. This paper aims to describe the recent and current management of oil revenues in Azerbaijan, provide a summary of international practices of natural resource management, and to make policy recommendations for future management of oil revenues. Recommendations include isolating oil money from the Azerbaijan economy, collecting it in the State Oil Fund, using permanent income hypothesis to employ a smooth distrubution function, and other investment considerations.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Budget, Investment, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus