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31. Reform in Syria: Steering between the Chinese Model and Regime Change

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The issue of political reform in Syria straddles the line between reform of political institutions and removal from power of a particular regime and entails both domestic and external actors. The regime of Bashar al-Asad is under pressure from Syrian citizens who want a different political system and different leadership. He is also under pressure from the United States, which wants Syria to change its regional policy: stop intruding in Lebanese affairs, reduce support of Palestinian groups, and make a bigger effort to prevent infiltration of radical Islamists into Iraq. As a result, it is impossible to separate completely a domestic process of political reform from the external pressures. The two are entangled to a much greater extent than in any other country in the region except Iraq, and the analysis that follows reflects this entanglement.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

32. The Saudi Labyrinth: Evaluating the Current Political Opening

Author:
Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Recent years have witnessed unprecedented political dynamism in Saudi Arabia. Since 2002, the government has pursued various reform policies. Its most relevant measures have included reforming the Shura Council, holding municipal elections, legalizing civil society actors, implementing educational reform plans, and institutionalizing national dialogue conferences. Although these measures appear less significant when compared with political developments in other Arab countries, such as Lebanon and Egypt, they constitute elements of a meaningful opening in Saudi authoritarian politics.</p
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Egypt

33. Evaluating Egyptian Reform

Author:
Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The political opening that began in late 2004 in Egypt has been unlike any seen in the country in at least twenty years, perhaps in a half century. It has resulted so far in Egypt holding its first-ever presidential election as well as parliamentary elections that were significantly fairer and more transparent than in the past, although marred by violence. Political dissidents are making bolder demands, most of the taboos on criticizing the regime have been swept away, and there is now more opposition representation in Parliament than at any time since the 1952 Free Officers' coup. The Muslim Brotherhood, an illegal organization but also the only effective opposition party, made dramatic gains in the fall 2005 elections. Yet many observers inside and outside Egypt view the political reform steps made in 2004 and 2005 as no more than cosmetic measures taken to preserve rather than change an essentially authoritarian order. Has Egypt entered an era of irreversible momentum toward democratization, or is it merely undergoing a brief liberal episode that will not fundamentally change the way political power is exercised?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

34. The Key to Arab Reform: Moderate Islamists

Author:
Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Before any significant political reform can take place in the Arab world, the United States and Europe need to begin engaging moderate Islamists, an action less thorny than it might seem because Islamists have embraced democratic procedures and have shown a strong commitment to the rule of law. For a long time Arab regimes have frightened the United States and Europe into supporting regimes' repressive measures toward Islamist movements by invoking the nightmare of anti-Western fanatics taking power through the ballot box. However, today's moderate Islamists—while illiberal in many important respects—no longer match the nightmare. Excluding them from the political sphere weakens the chances of democratic reform and increases the likelihood that eventually they will resort to violence.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Arabia

35. Judicial Reform in China: Lessons from Shanghai

Author:
Veron Mei-Ying Hung
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The George W. Bush administration in September 2002 laid out in the “National Security Strategy of the United States” its strategy toward China: “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” During a trip to Asia in March 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice adopted a similar phrase to welcome “the rise of a confident, peaceful, and prosperous China.”
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Shanghai, and Asia

36. Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?

Author:
Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East. One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still offers a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic. The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how significant is it?
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

37. How Russia is Not Ukraine: The Closing of Russian Civil Society

Author:
Maria Lipman
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The revolutionary events in Ukraine in November–December 2004 highlighted the absence of checks and balances in the Russian political system. What happened in Ukraine is inconceivable in today's Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Asia

38. A Better Way to Support Middle East Reform

Author:
Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), an important component of the Bush administration's policy of promoting Middle East reform, is falling short. MEPI should be relaunched as a private foundation funded by the government, akin to the Asia Foundation or the Eurasia Foundation. Such a relaunch would permit MEPI to develop greater expertise in the region, use more flexible, effective aid methods, and gain some independence from other U.S. programs and policies that serve conflicting ends. The restructuring of MEPI should be part of a broader set of measures to establish a more visible, coherent institutional policy structure to pursue the critical goal of fundamental political and economic change in the Middle East.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Middle East, and Asia

39. The Dangers of Political Exclusion: Egypt's Islamist Problem

Author:
Bassma Kodmani
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
MUCH HAS BEEN WRITTEN in recent years about Islam and politics, Islam and democracy, and Islam's compatibility with the requirements of modernity. These debates cannot be settled conclusively by referring to the holy texts, because such texts lend themselves to conflicting interpretations. This paper, therefore, takes a different approach. Using Egypt as a case study, it focuses not on the relationship between Islam and politics in the abstract, but on the relationship between religious authority and political authority as it unfolds in practice. It outlines the motivations, interests, strategies, and agendas of the institutions that represent and speak for Islam and those that represent the state and act in its name. The interaction between them is a mix of complicity and rivalry that has profound effects on Egyptian society, the Egyptian state, and its relationship with the outside world.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

40. Evaluating Palestinian Reform

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
IN PALESTINE, CITIZENS HAVE RIGHTS OF FREE SPEECH and free assembly. The most independent judiciary in the Arab world adjudicates their disputes. Palestinians select their leaders freely in competitive elections overseen by an independent electoral commission. A representative assembly monitors the executive, granting and withholding confidence from ministers and reviewing the state budget in detailed public discussions. Elected councils manage local governments that are fiscally autonomous of the center.
Topic:
Development, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia