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81. The New Middle East

Author:
Marina Ottaway, Paul Salem, Amr Hamzawy, Nathan J. Brown, and Karim Sadjadpour
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After September 11, 2001, the Bush administration launched an ambitious policy to forge a new Middle East, with intervention in Iraq as the driver of the transformation. "The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution," declared President Bush on November 7, 2003. In speech after speech, Bush administration officials made it abundantly clear that they would not pursue a policy directed at managing and containing existing crises, intending instead to leapfrog over them by creating a new region of democracy and peace in which old disputes would become irrelevant. The idea was summarized in a statement by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during the war between Lebanon and Israel in the summer of 2006. Pushing Israel to accept a cease- fire, she argued, would not help, because it would simply re-establish the status quo ante, not help create a new Middle East. The new Middle East was to be a region of mostly democratic countries allied with the United States. Regimes that did not cooperate would be subjected to a combination of sanctions and support for democratic movements, such as the so-called Cedar Revolution of 2005 in that forced Syrian troops out of the country. In extreme cases, they might be forced from power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon

82. Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable?

Author:
Deepti Choubey
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Policy makers have returned to the debate over whether and how total nuclear disarmament should take place. The notion that preventing the spread of nuclear weapons is much harder without also reducing their number seems to be motivating much of this interest. Consequently, officials in both the United States and other nuclear-weapon states hope that in direct exchange for renewed action on disarmament, non–nuclear-weapon states will support nonproliferation efforts.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States

83. Pakistan—Conflicted Ally in the War on Terror

Author:
Ashley Tellis
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Many Americans have blamed the resurgence of al-Qaeda and the Taliban on Pakistan's lackluster performance in the war on terror. Islamabad has indeed been ambivalent, but the convulsive political deterioration in the North West Frontier Province in Pakistan, Islamabad's military ineptitude in counterterrorism operations, and the political failures of the Karzai government in Afghanistan have all exacerbated the problem. Making U.S. aid conditional on Pakistan's performance in the war or undertaking unilateral strikes against terrorist targets in Pakistan would inflate suspicion of Washington's motives, and risk casting Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state, as an American adversary. U.S. policy must instead convince Pakistani elites that defeating terrorist groups serves their own interest, while emphasizing that a terrorist attack emanating from Pakistan would push Washington to adopt more painful tactics.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, America, Washington, Asia, and Taliban

84. Corruption Threatens China's Future

Author:
Minxin Pei
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Corruption poses one of the most lethal threats to China's future economic development and political stability. Illicit activities such as bribery, kickbacks, theft, and misspending of public funds cost at least 3 percent of GDP. Corruption also undermines the legitimacy of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, fuels social unrest, contributes directly to the rise in socioeconomic inequality, and undermines China's environmental security. The prevalence of corruption in China is rooted in the country's partially reformed economy and absence of genuine political reform. Corruption in China has spillover effects beyond its borders. To protect its own interests and encourage China in its transition toward a more market-based economy and open society, the United States should rely on mutual legal cooperation to assist China in its struggle against corruption.
Topic:
Corruption and Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

85. China's Looming Crisis—Inflation Returns

Author:
Albert Keidel
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Surging food prices in China indicate a serious risk of inflationary overheating. Past steps to control inflation caused social protest and deadly unrest. China faces the same risk now. China could avoid severe inflation by learning from its past failures and quickly raising interest rates—but politics make this unlikely. “Cooling off” policies in the future will thus be harsher than necessary. Beyond short-term fixes, China should increase imports of fine grains, with long-term U.S. supply assurances, both to stabilize prices and to promote lucrative farm diversification. U.S. intelligence analysis of this overheating risk should refute the conventional wisdom that China's growth is export-led—it is clearly domestically driven. Policy makers need to realize that China's rapid economic rise is homegrown and sustainable. The United States should quietly remind China that harsh handling of inflation-related unrest could seriously damage U.S.-China relations—especially in a U.S. election year.
Topic:
Economics and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

86. U.S. Living Standards in an Era of Globalization

Author:
Sandra Polaski
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
U.S. wages have stagnated for the past three decades, while the workforce has also faced an erosion of job security, health care, and pension plans. This increasing economic insecurity has coincided with rapid globalization. Is there a causal relationship between the two?
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States

87. Don't Give Up on Democracy Promotion

Author:
Nathan J. Brown, Amr Hamzawy, and Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Even as the United States is preoccupied with how to stabilize and withdraw from Iraq, it risks missing another important opportunity to promote democracy in the Middle East. Among Arab countries Egypt is uniquely positioned to make a transition from authoritarian rule to a more liberal system and eventually to democracy. A looming presidential succession in Egypt makes such changes more feasible. But after several years of modest reforms, the Egyptian government is now backtracking and enshrining illiberal measures in its revised constitution. The United States faces a critical decision about whether to pursue reform seriously with Egypt or to abandon the project of promoting Arab democracy, at least for now.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

88. Punching the U.S. Military's “Soft Ribs”: China's Antisatellite Weapon Test in Strategic Perspective

Author:
Ashley Tellis
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Although it is often argued that China's recent antisatellite weapon test was a protest against U.S. space policies, Beijing's counterspace programs are actually part of a considered strategy designed to counter the overall military capability of the United States. In preparing to cope with America's overwhelming conventional might, China has taken aim at its Achilles heel: its space-based capabilities and their related ground installations. Thus, China will continue to invest in space-denial technology rather than be a party to any space-control agreement that eliminates its best chance of asymmetrically defeating U.S. military power. With its dominance of space now at risk, the United States must run and win this offense/defense space race if it is to uphold its security obligations and deter increased Chinese counterspace efforts.
Topic:
Security and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Beijing, and Asia

89. Protecting Intellectual Property Rights in Chinese Courts: An Analysis of Recent Patent Judgements

Author:
Veron Mei-Ying Hung and Mei Ying Gechlik
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001, the country's commitment to abiding by the global body's rules has captured the attention of businesses and policy makers in the United States. Such attention is likely to grow because the Democrats are expected to use their regained power in Congress to toughen their stance on China trade issues, including intellectual property protection.
Topic:
International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

90. Roots of Radical Islam in Central Asia

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The history of the development of Islamic radicalism in Uzbekistan, and in Central Asia more generally, is a potentially contentious one. There is very little agreement either within the policy community in the United States or in Central Asia itself as to what Islamic radicalism is and who among devout Muslims should be considered as posing a threat to the secular regimes.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan