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131. Verifying North Korean Nuclear Disarmament

Author:
Jon B. Wolfsthal, Fred McGoldrick, and Seongwhun Cheon
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This chapter examines North Korea's plutonium infrastructure and production capabilities, as well as how a freeze over that capability might be reconstituted and verified if an agreement to do so can be reached. The chapter, which also discusses several issues related to the possible final elimination of North Korea's nuclear capability—a stated goal of U.S. policy—does not prejudge what form a freeze might take, how it might be negotiated, or by what bodies it might be implemented. This chapter is meant to provide a broad view of what hurdles anyone trying to reestablish a freeze might encounter and what uncertainties might remain under such a freeze.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

132. Liberalizing Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries

Author:
David Orden, Rashid S. Kaukab, and Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
A diverse group of development and trade liberalization advocates agree that reduction of agricultural protection and subsidization in the world's wealthy countries is necessary to strengthen both international growth opportunities and the global trade regime. According to the consensus reached among participants attending a conference cosponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Cordell Hull Institute, WTO Doha Round negotiations on agriculture should compel policy changes in industrialized countries to limit trade-distorting domestic subsidies for agricultural products, lower tariffs, increase market access, and eliminate export subsidies. In response to temporary hardships caused by an overall reduction in agriculture support, governments should have the flexibility to adopt temporary or limited domestic, and perhaps international, compensatory policies. Significant differences in perspective and policy prescriptions were expressed by conference participants about the appropriate speed and scope of agricultural liberalization in developing countries, especially if progress is not made toward reduced support for agriculture in developed countries.
Topic:
Development, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

133. Promoting Democracy in the Middle East: The Problem of U.S. Credibility

Author:
Marina Ottaway
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since early last year, the Bush administration has paid unaccustomed attention to the issue of democracy in the Middle East. Following September 11, many U. S. officials have worried that the authoritarianism of most Arab regimes has bred frustration in their countries, and this frustration has in turn favored the growth of terrorist organizations. U.S. discussions about the need for democracy in the Middle East have triggered a strong negative reaction by Arab commentators and journalists, including in discussions of democracy in the Arab press. However, very little of this writing has dealt with the problem of democracy in the real sense—that is, with the issue of how Arab governments relate to their citizens now and how they should relate to their citizens in the future. Instead, Arab commentators have treated democracy as a foreign policy issue, asking why the United States is suddenly discussing democracy in the Arab world and what true intentions it is trying to hide behind the smoke screen of democracy talk. The debate in the Arab press reveals some of the obstacles that the United States faces as it attempts to define its new pro-democracy role in the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

134. Trade Preferences and Environmental Goods

Author:
Scott Vaughan
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For the World Trade Organization (WTO), the most important development in a decade related to trade-environment linkages is the agreement to liberalize commerce in environmental goods and services. If properly executed, the agreement will increase the availability of “green” goods in global markets and break the North-South deadlock that has paralyzed discussions on the trade regime governing such goods.
Topic:
Environment, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

135. Iraq: What Next?

Author:
George Perkovich, Joseph Cirincione, and Jessica T. Mathews
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
American televisions are filled with war rooms, countdowns, deadlines, and showdowns with Iraq. The almost minute by minute coverage distorts public understanding of how inspections work and creates a false sense of the inevitability of war. No decision has in fact been made. Within the administration some indeed intend the buildup as the prelude to war while for others it presents the credible threat of war that is necessary to compel Iraq's disarmament through inspections.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East

136. Democratic Mirage in the Middle East

Author:
Marina Ottaway, Thomas Carothers, Amy Hawthorne, and Daniel Brumberg
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The increasingly popular idea in Washington that the United States, by toppling Saddam Hussein, can rapidly democratize Iraq and unleash a democratic tsunami in the Middle East is a dangerous fantasy. The U.S. record of building democracy after invading other countries is mixed at best and the Bush administration's commitment to a massive reconstruction effort in Iraq is doubtful. The repercussions of an intervention in Iraq will be as likely to complicate the spread of democracy in the Middle East as promote it. The United States has an important role to play in fostering democracy in the region, but the task will be slow and difficult given the unpromising terrain and lack of U.S. leverage over key governments.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Middle East

137. America's New Alliance with Pakistan: Avoiding the Traps of the Past

Author:
Husain Haqqani
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Pakistan has become a strategic U.S. ally in the war against al Qaeda. For now, Washington's support of General Pervez Musharraf's military regime is untempered by any insistence on the restoration of democracy. But military rule is likely to increase hostility between Pakistan and India and undercut efforts to root out Islamic extremists, who have been the armed forces' political allies in the past.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, America, South Asia, and Washington

138. New Role in U.S. Trade Policy

Author:
John Audley
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
On a hot day in August, President George W. Bush signed into law the Trade Act of 2002. Months of debate between the administration and members of Congress, their constituencies, and other governments were over; with the stroke of his pen President Bush became the first president in almost a decade to enjoy the benefits of trade promotion authority (TPA).
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

139. September 11, One Year Later: A World of Change

Author:
Jessica T Mathews
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For such a short period, the changes wrought by the events of 9/11 have been immense. It is too soon for judgments of historic import, though. At such a near distance one is tempted to over-ascribe cause and effect, to ignore roots of change that reach farther back, and to overlook unrelated developments of deep importance. And in the sense that “9/11” means the attacks and their aftermath, it is still unfolding. Its eventual significance will depend on future events and policy choices, key among them indicated here. Still, it is revealing to see the global upheaval at a glance, even if a report at this date should be thought of as only pencilled in.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

140. Summit with Substance: Creating Payoffs in an Unequal Partnership

Author:
Andrew Kuchins
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
U.S. president George W. Bush and Russian president Vladimir Putin have an important opportunity at their upcoming meeting to reach key agreements, remove major irritants in U.S.–Russian relations, and initiate a genuine partnership less burdened by Cold War legacies. In Europe last summer and in the United States last November, the two leaders established personal chemistry and trust—but the meetings lacked substance. Although Putin's leadership position will not be made or broken on his foreign policies, this time it will be important for his pro-Western orientation to produce a concrete payoff for Russia. As for President Bush, if the summit fails to produce results, then his vaunted Russia policy will be seen to be drifting. Thus both men require real outcomes such as a signed, legally binding nuclear arms reduction agreement and a new institutional relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Perhaps just as important, however, Putin and Bush each must explain to his own country why this partnership is important and what are its key elements.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, North Atlantic, and Asia