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61. A Spreading Danger: Time for a New Policy Toward Chechnya

Author:
Anatol Lieven, Fiona Hill, and Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The ongoing conflict in and around Chechnya is helping to feed the wider international jihadi movement, and is endangering the West as well as Russia. The next “soft target” of North Caucasian terrorism could be a Western one. Mutual recriminations over the conflict have badly damaged relations between Russia and the West. While most of the blame for this lies with Russian policies, the Western approach to the issue has often been unhelpful and irresponsible. Denunciations of Russian behavior have not been matched by a real understanding of the Chechen conflict or a real commitment to help.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and North Caucasus

62. Iran Is Not an Island: A Strategy to Mobilize the Neighbors

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
With luck, Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons could be delayed through a combination of Iranian technical difficulties, U.S. military action, and European diplomacy. However, neither delay nor regime change would remove the causes of proliferation pressures in Iran. Iran needs to be assured that the U.S. will respect its autonomy if it ceases nuclear weapons development, while Iran's neighbors need to be reassured that Tehran will respect their interests. Arab governments are reluctant to join in a regional security dialogue in part because of Washington's double standard regarding Israel's nuclear arsenal and treatment of Palestinians. To mobilize all of the international actors opposing Iranian nuclear development, the U.S. must recognize that Iranian proliferation, Persian Gulf security, the U.S. role in the Middle East, Israel's nuclear status, and Palestinian-Israeli relations are all linked and cannot be resolved without a more balanced U.S. stance.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, and Persia

63. How Russia is Not Ukraine: The Closing of Russian Civil Society

Author:
Maria Lipman
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The revolutionary events in Ukraine in November–December 2004 highlighted the absence of checks and balances in the Russian political system. What happened in Ukraine is inconceivable in today's Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Asia

64. Legalism Sans Frontières?: U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World

Author:
David M. Mednicoff
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE PROBLEM OF KNOWLEDGE IN RULE-OF-LAW PROMOTION, above all the basic question of whether Western rule-of-law aid programs are on the right track to help build the rule of law in recipient countries, is especially acute in the Arab world. Arab states generally share two features that render external rule-of-law aid particularly difficult—long-standing nondemocratic governments, and legal systems that graft Ottoman, European, and contemporary sources onto Islamic norms. We cannot presume that U.S. common-law practitioners can build the rule of law by transporting or transplanting their technocratic techniques into such different legal soil. Indeed, the very idea that people in Arab societies would be receptive to American guidance in legal reform is dubious in the current climate of broad, popular mistrust of the United States.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Arabia, and Arab Countries

65. The Complexity of Success: The U.S. Role in Russian Rule of Law Reform

Author:
Matthew J. Spence
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
MIXED RESULTS FROM THE PROLIFERATION OF WESTERN RULE OF LAW assistance over the past twenty years has taught us much about what efforts do not work. Criminal justice reform in Russia offers a different type of lesson; it is a rare success story of rule of law promotion. In the 1990s, the U.S. government sought to promote the rule of law in many parts of the former Soviet Union and beyond, but few of these efforts outside Russia produced concrete results. Instead, lawlessness became a primary symptom of the apparent failure of many attempted rule of law reforms in the former Soviet Union.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

66. Vladimir Putin and Russia's Oil Policy

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The honeymoon between the Western oil industry and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended in mid-2003 when the Russian procurator's office began arresting Yukos executives. The Kremlin's seemingly sudden attack on private industry surprised the international business community that was expecting investment-friendly behavior from the Russian leadership. After assuming power in late 1999, Putin quickly signaled interest in developing a strong energy partnership with the United States, including increased opportunities for Western firms to invest in Russia's oil and gas industry.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

67. Europe's Uncertain Pursuit of Middle East Reform

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
DELIBERATION OF DEMOCRACY PROMOTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST intensified after the attacks of 9/11, and has been further energized by the transatlantic debates that were progeny of the Iraqi conflict. More intense debate over support for political change in the Middle East has forced the United States and Europe into a closer exploration of each other's actual and intended approaches to democracy promotion in the region. Debates have centered, in particular, on preparations for June's Group of Eight (G8) and EU–U.S. summits and the United States' proposed Greater Middle East Initiative. While many in the U.S. bemoan European irresolution, others acknowledge the need for American policy to understand and harness the EU's more pervasive presence in much of the Middle East. While Europeans express dismay at the Bush administration's heavy-handed instrumentalism, they have also been forced to engage with new U.S. initiatives that appear to heed the EU's own pleas for a focus on the root causes of instability. With the U.S. and EU eyeing each other over the parapets of their Iraqi-inspired wrangles, it is an opportune moment to delineate and critically assess how Europeans have developed their democracy promotion policies in the Middle East.
Topic:
Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Europe, and Middle East

68. Greater Middle East Initiative Off to a False Start

Author:
Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Bush administration is preparing to launch a “Greater Middle East Initiative” at the G-8 summit meeting in June. The plan is to bring the United States, Europe, and the Middle East together around a set of commitments to help transform the region politically and economically. The time is indeed opportune for engagement on regional reform, but as planned, the initiative fails to establish a basis for genuine partnership and does little to address the real challenges of Arab democratization. The administration should rethink its approach and start a new process of genuine consultations to come to an agreement on how all three sides can work cooperatively to address the regional problems that threaten the security of Arab societies and the West.
Topic:
Democratization and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

69. E.U.—RUSSIA RELATIONS: Interests and Value—A European Perspective

Author:
Rolf Schuette
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia easily comes first in the time and energy that the E.U. has devoted to developing relations with outside partners, both in the economic field and regarding the political dialogue within the context of the E.U.'s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP). Russia has been the subject of many fundamental policy documents, policy implementation instruments, and internal discussions during the past decade. The density and frequency of the bilateral dialogue between Russia and the E.U. are unique.
Topic:
Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

70. The Political-Economic Conundrum: The Affinity of Economic and Political Reform in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Eva Bellin
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA) has languished in economic stagnation and lassitude. At a time when the logic of market-driven reform and exportoriented growth has become nearly canonical worldwide, the MENA region has proven steadfastly unenthusiastic about reform, shutting itself out of the benefits of economic globalization and falling behind most other regions in economic development. At the same time, the MENA region has distinguished itself by spurning another worldwide trend: democratization. As democracy has spread in Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East has remained largely authoritarian, experiencing at most only mild liberalizing political reforms. This dual resistance to world trends is intriguing and resurrects the question of the relationship between political and economic reform. Is this dual resistance to reform coincidental? And what does this resistance say about whether and how Western policy makers and aid practitioners should try to link or sequence their efforts to promote political and economic reform in the region?
Topic:
Globalization and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and North Africa