Search

Begin New Search Publishing Institution Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Publication Year within 25 Years

101. Final Report of the Independent Panel to Review DoD Detention Operations

Author:
Harold Brown, James R. Schlesinger, Tillie K. Fowler, Charles A. Horner, and James A. Jr. Blackwell
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The events of October through December 2003 on the night shift of Tier at Abu Ghraib prison were acts of brutality and purposeless sadism. We now know these abuses occurred at the hands of both military police and military intelligence personnel. The pictured abuses, unacceptable even in wartime, were not part of authorized interrogations nor were they were even directed at intelligence targets. They represent deviant behavior and a failure of military leadership and discipline. However, we do know that some of the egregious abuses at Abu Ghraib which were not photographed did occur during interrogation sessions and that abuses during the interrogation sessions occurred elsewhere.
Topic:
Crime and War
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

102. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Enabling Joint Force Capabilities: Phase II

Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Events of the past decade provide compelling evidence that the national security environment continues to evolve at a rapid pace and in unpredictable directions. Further, it is clear that meeting the demands of the evolving environment calls for new levels of adaptable military capabilities that, in turn, demand joint forces that are responsive and effective across a range of operations from small scale operations through major theater conflict. In the two most recent major contingencies – Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) - we have seen new levels of understanding of the need for truly integrated joint capabilities and new levels of innovation in leveraging existing capabilities to achieve the needed level of effectiveness. Lessons Learned activities have verified important shifts in focus leading to a series of emerging concepts for more effectively integrating capabilities.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Environment, and National Security
Political Geography:
United States

103. Does Monetary Policy Keep Up with the Joneses? Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing with Consumption Externalities

Author:
Sanjay Chugh
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Changes in monetary policy are typically implemented gradually, an empirical observation known as interest-rate smoothing. We propose the explanation that timenon- separable preferences may render interest-rate smoothing optimal. We find that when consumers have “catching-up-with-the-Joneses” preferences, optimal monetary policy reacts gradually to shocks to prevent inefficiently fast adjustments in consumption. We also extend our basic model to investigate the effects of capital formation and nominal rigidities on the dynamics of optimal monetary policy. Optimal policy responses continue to be gradual in the presence of capital and sticky prices, with a size and speed that are in line with empirical findings for the U.S. economy. Our results emphasize that gradualism in monetary policy may be needed simply to guide the economy on an optimally smooth path.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

104. The ET Interview: Professor David F. Hendry

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This interview for Econometric Theory explores David Hendry's research. Issues discussed include estimation and inference for nonstationary time series; econometric methodology; strategies, concepts, and criteria for empirical modeling; the general-to-specific approach, as implemented in the computer packages PcGive and PcGets; computer-automated model selection procedures; David's textbook Dynamic Econometrics; Monte Carlo techniques (PcNaive); evaluation of these developments in simulation studies and in empirical investigations of consumer expenditure, money demand, inflation, and the housing and mortgage markets; economic forecasting and policy analysis; the history of econometric thought; and the use of computers for live empirical and Monte Carlo econometrics.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

105. Good News Is No News? The Impact of Credit Rating Changes on the Pricing of Asset-Backed Securities

Author:
John Ammer and Nathanael Clinton
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We assess the impact of credit ratings on the pricing of structured financial products, using a sample of more than 1300 changes in Moody's or Standard and Poor's (S) ratings of U.S. asset-backed securities (ABS). We find that rating downgrades tend to be accompanied by negative returns and widening spreads, with the average effects stronger than those that have been reported in prior research on corporate and sovereign bond ratings. A portion of the negative implications of ABS downgrades are anticipated by price movements ahead of the rating action, although to a lesser degree than has been found for bond ratings. Accordingly, ABS market participants appear to rely somewhat more on rating agencies as a source of negative news about credit risk. Nevertheless, because ABS rating downgrades are relatively rare events, their effects account for only a small fraction of the variance of returns. In contrast to our results on downgrades, market reactions to ABS rating upgrades are virtually zero, on average. Together, the results imply even greater asymmetry in the value-relevance of ABS rating changes than has been found in event studies of changes in bond ratings.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

106. The Vertical Lift Industrial Base: Outlook 2004-2014

Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The vertical lift industrial base still is being shaped by government and industry responses to the Nunn-McCurdy cost breaches of 2001 and the unintended consequences of Department-endorsed teaming arrangements that resulted in an interlocked industrial base that restricted Department and industry flexibility. The Department's budget-driven remanufacture strategy in the 1990s produced a series of sole-sourced relationships, leaving few real competitive opportunities among the helicopter prime contractors to force technology refresh cycles. With limited competition, few new platform contracts, and declining government technology investments, industry was left little incentive to invest in independent research.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

107. 9-11 Commission Final Report

Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We present the narrative of this report and the recommendations that flow from it to the President of the United States, the United States Congress, and the American people for their consideration. Ten Commissioners—five Republicans and five Democrats chosen by elected leaders from our nation's capital at a time of great partisan division—have come together to present this report without dissent.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

108. The Proliferation Security Initiative

Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) is a global initiative aimed at stopping shipments of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), their delivery systems, and related materials worldwide, announced by President Bush, May 31, 2003. It stems from the National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction issued in December 2002. That strategy recognizes the need for more robust tools to defeat the proliferation of WMD around the world, and specifically identifies interdiction as an area where greater focus will be placed.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

109. The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices: Market Expectations and the Price of Risk

Author:
Jonathan H. Wright, Sergey V. Chernenko, and Krista B. Schwarz
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Forward and futures rates are frequently used as measures of market expectations. In this paper we apply standard forecast efficiency tests, and some newer exact sign and rank tests, to a wide range of forward and futures rates, and in this way test whether these are in fact rational expectations of future actual prices. The forward and futures rates that we study under a common methodology include foreign exchange forward rates, U.S. and foreign interest rate futures and forward rates, oil futures and natural gas futures. For most, but not all, of these instruments, we find that we can reject the hypothesis that the forward or futures rates are rational expectations of actual future prices. It is well known that foreign exchange forward rates give less accurate forecasts than a random walk, but we show that this is also true for some interest rate futures and forward rates. We conclude that forward and futures prices are not generally pure measures of market expectations: they are also heavily affected by the market price of risk.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

110. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Contributions of Space Based Radar to Missile Defense

Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In accordance with the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2004, the Defense Science Board (DSB) was asked to assess the potential contributions of a Space Based Radar (SBR) to missile defense. In response, the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (USD (AT), and the Director, Missile Defense Agency (MDA) directed that the DSB Task Force on the Contribution of a Space Based Radar to Missile Defense perform the following tasks: Assess the impact of adding a missile defense mission on the ability of SBR satellites to conduct their primary missions; Assess how different SBR architectures and technical approaches might affect the ability of the satellites to achieve their primary missions and to contribute to missile defense; Assess the value of potential SBR capabilities in the context of the family of sensors being developed by the Missile Defense Agency; and Recommend any future actions that might be desirable related to SBR contributions to missile defense.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction