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Begin New Search Publishing Institution Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University

341. Achieving Comparable Effort through Carbon Price Agreements

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Peter Wilcoxen, and Adele Morris
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)'s 2007 Bali Plan of Action calls for the next agreement to ensure the "comparability of efforts" across developed countries while "taking into account differences in their national circumstances." Trends in national emissions and economic growth vary widely between countries, as do yearto-year fluctuations around those trends. This means that achieving similar reductions relative to historical base years can require very different levels of efforts in different countries. These differences have greatly hampered climate cooperation because it means that commitments that are similar in effort look inequitable. Further, divergent underlying trends make it difficult to know the effort that any particular commitment will require. The failure of the G-8 to set a base year for its agreed 80 percent reduction of emissions by 2050 illustrates the contention in formulating even collective targets.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements

342. Climate Finance: Key Concepts and Ways Forward

Author:
Benedict Kingsbury, Richard B. Stewart, and Bryce Rudyk
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Climate finance is fundamental to curbing anthropogenic climate change. Compared, however, to the negotiations over emissions reduction timetables, commitments, and architectures, climate finance issues have received only limited and belated attention. Assuring delivery and appropriate use of the financial resources needed to achieve emissions reductions and secure adaptation to climate change, particularly in developing countries, is as vital as agreement on emission caps. Yet, a comprehensive framework on financing for mitigation and adaptation is not in sight. Developed and developing countries cannot agree on even the fundamentals of what should be included (e.g. should private finance through carbon markets be included?), let alone the level and terms of financing commitments, regulatory and other mechanisms, or governance structures.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements

343. Beyond Zero Enrichment: Suggestions for an Iranian Nuclear Deal

Author:
Matthew Bunn
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The United States and the other members of the P5+1 are struggling to launch the first in-depth negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program in which the United States has participated. The United States comes to the table with few good options. Sanctions have failed to change Iran's decisions about its nuclear program, and no feasible set of sanctions (given the limits of what China, Russia, and others will agree to) is likely to convince Iran to give up its enrichment program. Military strikes against Iran would probably not set back Iran's program for longer than a brief period and would greatly increase Iran's incentive to go straight to the bomb at covert sites (as Iraq did after Israel destroyed its facilities at Osiraq).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Middle East

344. The Economics of Nuclear Energy Markets and the Future of International Security

Author:
Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra Decker
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper discusses the evolution of nuclear energy markets and key drivers of the growing “nuclear renaissance.” We focus on uranium, the largest part of the nuclear fuel markets, and analyze market demand, supply, and prices since the 1970s. We review the forces impacting this market – historically and prospectively - and note proliferation concerns surrounding nuclear energy: i.e. the same facilities that enrich uranium for electricity generation can also enrich it further for nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Security, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Markets, and Nuclear Weapons

345. Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea

Author:
Scott Snyder, Bonnie Glaser, and John Park
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Beijing viewed North Korea's explosion of a nuclear device in October 2006 as not only an act of defiance to the international community and a threat to regional stability, but also an act of defiance toward China. Chinese officials admit that their toolbox for managing the North Korean nuclear weapons challenge must now include a combination of pressure and inducements. Three considerations underpin Beijing's aid policy toward North Korea: 1) protecting China's military-strategic environment; 2) maintaining security and stability along the Sino-DPRK border; and 3) sustaining economic development and political stability in the three Chinese northeastern provinces that border North Korea. There are intense debates among Chinese analysts over: 1) whether North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons; 2) the strategic value of the DPRK to China; 3) whether the Sino-DPRK treaty should be revised, abandoned, retained and its ambiguity stressed to enhance deterrence; and 4) the likelihood of a rapid improvement in U.S.-DPRK relations and how such a development would affect Chinese interests. Chinese analysts are generally less concerned with North Korea's immediate economic prospects than they were last year, reporting severe but stable conditions. Inflation has subsided and market mechanisms have largely replaced government rations as the primary means for securing a livelihood. In contrast to last year, when Chinese analysts were consumed by the seeming zero-sum choice between stability and reform facing the North Korean leadership, North Korea's slightly improved economic situation seems to have allayed the immediacy of Chinese concerns about North Korea's economic stability. Chinese experts report no fundamental change in North Korea's economic policies following the 2002 reforms. Chinese analysts provide conflicting assessments of whether government attempts to prohibit selling of grain in markets are succeeding and the extent to which the grain rationing system is working. Chinese DPRK specialists are encouraged that the DPRK has haltingly adopted some agricultural and market reforms and allowed greater autonomy to individual factories and enterprises. But they acknowledge that North Korea has not yet allowed farmers to act independently of their work teams, a step China took as early as the late 1970s that raised productivity sharply. Chinese analysts anticipate that reforms will continue as long as they do not threaten central government control. Chinese analysts widely assert that the North Korean system remains stable and they are confident that it will remain so for at least several years absent the sudden death of Kim Jong Il or external interference aimed at destabilizing the regime. In the long run, however, sustainable development through economic reform remains an essential prerequisite for stability, and North Korea's ability to move down that path is not yet assured. There are numerous indicators that the Chinese examine to assess stability trends in North Korea. These indicators are grouped in the following manner: 1) factionalism in the regime and potential challenges to Kim Jong Il's leadership; 2) political controls and ideological education; 3) influences from the outside; 4) the general public's loyalty to the Kim family; 5) crimes and illicit activities; 6) the economy, food supply, and economic reform; and 7) Kim Jong Il's health and the leadership succession. Chinese analysts see few signs of immediate instability in any of these areas at present, but they worry that the potential for instability may grow. In the event of instability in North Korea, China's priority will be to prevent refugees from flooding across the border. If deemed necessary, PLA troops would be dispatched into North Korea. China's strong preference is to receive formal authorization and coordinate closely with the United Nations (UN) in such an endeavor. However, if the international community did not react in a timely manner as internal order in North Korea deteriorated rapidly, China would seek to take the initiative in restoring stability. Contingency plans are in place for the PLA to perform at least three possible missions in the DPRK: 1) humanitarian missions such as assisting refugees or providing help after a natural disaster; 2) peacekeeping or “order keeping” missions such as serving as civil police; and 3) “environmental control” missions to clean up nuclear contamination resulting from a strike on North Korean nuclear facilities near the Sino-DPRK border and secure “loose nukes” and fissile material. There is apparent new willingness among Chinese institute analysts and PLA researchers to discuss the warning signs of instability in North Korea and how China might respond if the situation gets out of control and threatens Chinese security. Some Chinese experts say explicitly that they favor holding a discussion on stability in North Korea in official channels with the United States, including possible joint responses in support of common objectives such as securing nuclear weapons and fissile material. Other analysts maintain that such discussions are premature.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

346. Giving Green to Get Green: Incentives and Consumer Adoption of Hybrid Vehicle Technology

Author:
Kelly Sims Gallagher and Erich Muehlegger
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Federal, state and local governments use a variety of incentives to induce consumer adoption of hybrid-electric vehicles. We study the relative efficacy of state sales tax waivers, income tax credits and non-tax incentives and find that the type of tax incentive offered is as important as the value of the tax incentive. Conditional on value, we find that sales tax waivers are associated a seven-fold greater increase in hybrid sales than income tax credits. In addition, we estimate the extent to which consumer adoption of hybrid-electric vehicles (HEV) in the United States from 2000-2006 can be attributed to government incentives, changing gasoline prices, or consumer preferences for environmental quality or energy security. After controlling for model specific state and time trends, we find that rising gasoline prices are associated with higher hybrid sales, although the effect operates entirely through sales of the hybrid models with the highest fuel economy. In total, we find that tax incentives, rising gasoline prices and social preferences are associated with 6, 27 and 36 percent of high economy hybrid sales from 2000-2006.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

347. Legalizing Nuclear Abandonment: The Determinants of Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty Ratification

Author:
Matthew Fuhrmann and Xiaojun Li
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This study seeks to explain when and why states ratify regional nuclear weapons free zone (NWFZ) treaties. When states ratify these treaties they legalize commitments not to manufacture, acquire, test, or possess nuclear weapons and receive assurances from the nuclear powers that nuclear weapons will not be used against them. Integrating insights from the literatures on legal commitment and nuclear proliferation, this paper argues that variation in the costs and benefits of the treaty's provisions is important to understanding NWFZ ratification. This broad assertion leads to several hypotheses that are tested using event history analysis and a sample of all 109 states that are eligible to join NWFZs. The results indicate that expectations of future conflict with the nuclear powers make states more likely to ratify NWFZ treaties and factors that might compel states to pursue nuclear weapons—such as militarized conflict and the presence of nuclear-related resources—make states less likely to do so. Only limited support for the argument that normative or reputation-based benefits influence states' decisions to join NWFZs is found.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Political Economy, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements

348. Political Economy of Government Responsiveness: Policy Choices and Rural Incorporation

Author:
Haroon Ullah
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The literature of political development has long advocated the importance of integrating the rural countryside into mainstream political institutions. This paper argues that rural incorporation is best understood within the context of pro-peasant policy innovations targeting specific constituencies in an electorate. While there are important preconditions that set the stage for rural incorporation (legitimacy of the political party, party organization), rural incorporation is fostered when credible commitments are made to voter blocs. Combining case-study analysis and formal modeling, this paper focuses on the reasons pro-peasant policies lead to rural incorporation but not necessarily regime durability. Insights derived center on the importance of credible commitments to party dynamics, the path dependence of early elections, and the decision parameters of constituencies with limited information.
Topic:
Political Economy, Politics, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, South Asia, and Asia

349. Estimating the Impact of the Hajj: Religion and Tolerance in Islam's Global Gathering

Author:
Michael Kremer, Asim Khwaja, and David Clingingsmith
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
We estimate the impact on pilgrims of performing the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Our method compares successful and unsuccessful applicants in a lottery used by Pakistan to allocate Hajj visas. Pilgrim accounts stress that the Hajj leads to a feeling of unity with fellow Muslims, but outsiders have sometimes feared that this could be accompanied by antipathy toward non-Muslims. We find that participation in the Hajj increases observance of global Islamic practices such as prayer and fasting while decreasing participation in localized practices and beliefs such as the use of amulets and dowry. It increases belief in equality and harmony among ethnic groups and Islamic sects and leads to more favorable attitudes toward women, including greater acceptance of female education and employment. Increased unity within the Islamic world is not accompanied by antipathy toward non-Muslims. Instead, Hajjis show increased belief in peace, and in equality and harmony among adherents of different religions. The evidence suggests that these changes are more a result of exposure to and interaction with Hajjis from around the world, rather than religious instruction or a changed social role of pilgrims upon return.
Topic:
Demographics, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Asia, and Mecca

350. Economic Analysis of the Nurse Shortage in Egypt

Author:
Marwa Farag
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The health sector in Egypt suffers from a severe shortage of qualified nurses (nurses with at least 2 years of post high school nursing education) and a much less apparent perceived/real shortage of all-type nurses. This paper examines the nurse labor market in Egypt for evidence of such shortages and explores potential reasons behind them. The paper adopts a case-study approach to provide an overall understanding of the demand for and supply of nurses in Egypt; it employs both qualitative and quantitative techniques. Focus groups and in-depth interviews were conducted with 19 nurses in addition to secondary analysis of data from World Health Organization- East Mediterranean Region, High Council for University Students in Egypt and Ministry of Health and Population. I find that the main reason for the shortage of the stock of qualified nurses is–to a large extent- the restricted supply of nursing education, which is provided entirely by the public sector today. The overall perceived/real shortage of all-type nurses on the other hand does not seem to be related to a shortage of the stock of all nurses but rather nurse supply decisions at the current nurse wage levels and nurse working conditions in Egypt. The Ministry of Health and Population current approach is to upgrade the quality of nursing education in Egypt to eliminate high school level nursing education in the future; this seems to be the right approach. However, as a result of lack of quantitative labor market data, it is not possible to predict the likely effect of such policy on the shortage. Since a more educated nurse is more employable in the private sector and abroad, this might very well mean that more nurses will exit the public sector leading to more severe shortages in the public sector and therefore such policy should be accompanied by nurse retention strategies tailored to the nature of the supply nurses. Lack of data makes it difficult to generate the evidence necessary to guide such policies. Investing in data infrastructures is essential to support evidence based health policy in Egypt. Finally, with Egypt high unemployment rate (particularly for female unemployment), it is possible to view the availability of foreign markets for Egyptian nurses as an opportunity instead of a threat if the right policies aimed at protecting the local market for nurses and public investments in nurse education are adopted.
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Health
Political Geography:
Egypt