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331. Long Time Going: Religion and the Duration of Crusading

Author:
Michael Horowitz
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Scholars have argued for centuries about the relative importance of religion in determining behavior. Do actors with genuine religious beliefs, both leaders and foot soldiers, actually fight wars and commit atrocities in the name of religion and religious institutions? Or is religion a proxy for materialist variables such as land grabs or wealth creation? A case study of the Catholic Crusading movement and an evaluation of Crusading as an institution demonstrate that religiously motivated military campaigns, when decisive conclusions are not possible, may last longer than other campaigns because of the nonmaterial reasons for continuing to fight. Despite spectacular failures and rising costs, Crusading continued for centuries. The evidence shows that it is impossible to comprehend the persistence of Crusading over a several-hundred- year period without understanding the religious devotion at the heart of this institution. This research contributes to growing work in international relations on the importance of identity attributes and helps to explain how factors such as religion can influence processes such as crisis bargaining and war termination. Michael C. Horowitz. "Long Time Going: Religion and the Duration of Crusading." International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009): 162-193.
Topic:
Security

332. Correspondence: Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War

Author:
Alexander B. Downes, Dan Reiter, and Allan Stam
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam; Alexander B. Downes. "Correspondence: Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War." International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009): 194.
Topic:
War

333. Beyond Optimism and Pessimism: The Differential Effects of Nuclear Proliferation

Author:
Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
What is the effect of the spread of nuclear weapons on international politics? The scholarly debate pits proliferation optimists, who claim that “more may be better,” against proliferation pessimists, who argue that “more will be worse.” These scholars focus on the aggregate effects of nuclear proliferation, but never explicitly consider the differential effects of the spread of nuclear weapons. In other words, they do not examine whether nuclear proliferation may threaten some states more than others. I propose a theory of nuclear proliferation that examines the differential effects of nuclear proliferation. I argue that the threat nuclear proliferation poses to a particular state depends on that state's ability to project military power. The spread of nuclear weapons is worse for states that have the ability to project conventional military power over a potential nuclear weapon state primarily because nuclear proliferation constrains their conventional military freedom of action. On the other hand, nuclear proliferation is less threatening to, and can sometimes even improve the strategic environment of, states that lack the ability to project power over a potential nuclear weapon state, because the spread of nuclear weapons disproportionately constrains other, more powerful states. This article contributes to our understanding of the consequences of nuclear proliferation and contains important implications for nuclear nonproliferation policy.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and International Affairs

334. Health Financing and Health Outcomes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Author:
Marwa Farag
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper presents an overview of health spending and health outcomes in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region over the time period 1995-2006, using cross-country and over-time comparisons. Overall, the region experienced improvements in health outcomes measured in terms of reductions in infant, under-5 child mortality and maternal mortality. However, there are notable exceptions to this trend of declining mortality in countries such as Afghanistan. In addition to providing an overview of changes in health outcomes and health spending over the 12-year period, the paper examines the following two issues: 1) The responsiveness of health care spending to changes in a country's income, and 2) The impact of spending on health care services on health outcomes. The methodological approach adopted in this paper is multivariate regression analysis. I employ random effects models with year dummies, which are appropriate for panel data analysis. I also use double-log formulas for econometric necessity and ease of interpreting the results. The findings indicate that a 1 percent increase in GDP per capita is associated with 0.89 percent increase in health spending in the region and that income growth does not explain all the variation in health spending, indicating that other factors, such as the organization of the health care system, influence health care spending levels. This is an important finding because it suggests that on the one hand cost-containment and on the other mobilizing more funds for the health care sector are possible with appropriate interventions. The findings on the importance of spending on health care for achieving better health outcomes demonstrate that investing in health care matters; a 1 percent increase in health spending is associated with 0.11 percent reduction in infant mortality and 0.14 percent reduction in under-5 child mortality. These results are likely to be underestimating the effect of health spending because of the inclusion of a country's income in the models. Gender parity in secondary school education also had a significant impact on reducing infant and child mortality. Government effectiveness had a strong and significant effect on reducing maternal mortality. The results contradict the notion that increases in income through better nutrition and living conditions alone are responsible for improvements in health outcomes. The results of this analysis clearly indicate that investing in health care also matters.
Topic:
Health
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

335. Strategies for Acquiring Foreign Nuclear Assistance in the Middle East: Lessons from the United Arab Emirates

Author:
Bryan Early
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The path to acquiring a peaceful civilian nuclear program is fraught with challenges for countries in the Middle East. Given Israel's proactive policies in preventing the proliferation of its neighbors and nuclear supplier states' consternation about the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region, Arab states face a number of unique obstacles in acquiring foreign nuclear assistance. Yet as the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) recent success in courting the assistance of a number of nuclear supplier states demonstrates, these obstacles are not insurmountable. This piece explores the UAE's strategies in obtaining foreign nuclear assistance to uncover the generalizable insights that may be of use to other Middle Eastern countries seeking to develop peaceful nuclear programs.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

336. Securing the Peace: The Battle over Ethnicity and Energy in Modern Iraq

Author:
Justin Dargin
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This article examines the legal and political impediments to the Kurdish Regional Government's (KRG) exploration and production contracts, which the central government in Baghdad has refused to recognize. The newly established Iraqi national constitution significantly opened as many petroleum-control questions as it resolved. Negotiated in 2005, the constitution not only separated branches of government, but established Federalism as its lodestar. When faced with unresolved issues over regional and national control over petroleum resources, however, International Oil Companies (IOCs) function in an ambiguous legal environment that fails to clearly distinguish between federal and regional powers.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Baghdad, and Arabia

337. The Cross-Border Financial Impact of Violence

Author:
Mohamad M. Al-Ississ
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper argues that violent events have two economic effects: a direct loss from the destruction of physical and human capital, and a reallocation of financial and economic resources. It documents the positive cross-border impact that follows violent events as a result of this reallocation. Thus, it reconciles the two existing perspectives in the literature on whether violence has a small or large economic effect. Our results show that, in globally integrated markets, the substitution of financial and economic activities away from afflicted countries magnifies their losses. This study evaluates certain factors affecting the impact of violence in non-event countries. Geographic distance from the event country is not monotonic in its effect on the valuation of equities of other countries. Also, the safer a non-event country is perceived to be relative to the event country, the greater the positive impact on its financial market. Finally, event countries with deeper financial markets are less susceptible to capital reallocation following an event.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Economics

338. Oil, Labor Markets, and Economic Diversification in the GCC: An Empirical Assessment

Author:
Tarek Coury and Chetan Dave
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In a bid to reduce their dependency on oil and natural gas revenues, GCC governments have recently invested considerable resources to diversify their economies. This paper provides an empirical assessment of economic diversification in the GCC for the period 1980–2005. In particular we assess whether oil and natural gas revenues, government policies and foreign flows of labor have contributed to greater economic diversification, proxied by real growth in non-hydrocarbon GDP per worker. To our knowledge, this is the first paper that analyzes economic diversification in the Gulf using panel data techniques that explicitly treat the GCC as an economic block.
Topic:
Markets, Oil, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Arabia

339. What Accounts for the Success of Islamist Parties in the Arab World

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Islamist organizations are generally considered to be the strongest and most credible opposition to incumbent regimes throughout the Arab world. Fear of Islamic takeovers has led regimes and other outside powers to justify not holding free elections, citing examples that include the Algerian election of 1991, the Iranian Revolution, the AKP victory in Turkey and the perceived popularity of Islamist opposition groups throughout much of the Arab world (Brumberg 2002). Yet, other analysts have questioned the actual strength of Islamist movements within the Arab world, noting that although Islamists may be the main challenger, few have actually been successful in taking power (Roy 1994).
Topic:
Islam and Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Arabia, and Algeria

340. The Blueprint: A History of Dubai's Spatial Development Through Oil Discovery

Author:
Stephen J. Ramos
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
To understand Dubai's modern history since its founding in 1833, one must go further back in time to explore the regional history that frames its foundation. European powers, beginning with the Venetians, and, then subsequently, the Portuguese, the Dutch, and finally the British, were interested in the Gulf region as a means to secure trade routes to and from the Indian Subcontinent and points eastward. This meant that from the fifteenth century through the late nineteenth century, if trade routes could move uninterrupted through the Gulf region, European powers were not involved in the societal affairs of settlements as a traditionally colonial ruling class, nor did European merchants bother to extensively explore trade within the region, believing that it required more effort than either the climate or the local economies were worth. The region's local tribes were divided among the maritime coastal groups and those that were nomadic and land-bound, and conflict among these groups occurred in parallel with the larger European conflicts also playing out in the region. The intersection of the two came with the increase in piracy, which, in very basic terms, represented a kind of cultural disagreement on trade customs. The Europeans felt that they were unjustly looted and local groups simply sought to protect themselves from foreign incursion while taking what they believed was their share. Historians still debate this issue today, but in relation to Dubai, the piracy of the times serves as an example of how looser understandings of the licit and illicit, particularly in terms of trade, could be capitalized upon as business venture. The smuggling of gold, weapons, and other goods throughout Dubai's history may have been seen as illicit from perspectives outside Dubai's ports, but the merchant-friendly environments of these ports and the adherence to local autonomy allowed them to trade freely.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
Europe, India, Arabia, and Dubai