Search

Begin New Search Publishing Institution Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University

271. The Deception Dividend: FDR's Undeclared War

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
When do leaders resort to deception to sell wars to their publics? Dan Reiter and Allan Stam have advanced a "selection effects" explanation for why democracies win the wars they initiate: leaders, because they must secure public consent first, "select" into those wars they expect to win handily. In some cases, however, the "selection effect" breaks down. In these cases, leaders, for realist reasons, are drawn toward wars where an easy victory is anything but assured. Leaders resort to deception in such cases to preempt what is sure to be a contentious debate over whether the use of force is justified by shifting blame for hostilities onto the adversary. The events surrounding the United States' entry into World War II is useful in assessing the plausibility of this argument. President Franklin Roosevelt welcomed U.S. entry into the war by the fall of 1941 and attempted to manufacture events accordingly. An important implication from this finding is that deception may sometimes be in the national interest.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
United States

272. Correspondence: Going Nowhere Fast: Assessing Concerns about Long-Range Conventional Ballistic Missiles

Author:
Austin Long, Dinshaw Mistry, and Bruce M. Sugden
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Austin Long and Dinshaw Mistry respond to Bruce Sugden's summer 2009 International Security article, "Speed Kills: Analyzing the Deployment of Conventional Ballistic Missiles."
Topic:
Security

273. Biofuels Development Strategy: A Case Study of the Dominican Republic

Author:
Brendan Luecke
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The Dominican Republic is well positioned to benefit from the development of an ethanol industry. It has adequate land resources and, under favorable market conditions, can produce ethanol cost-competitively for both domestic consumption and export.
Topic:
Biofuels
Political Geography:
Dominican Republic

274. Toward a Post-2010 International Climate Agreement

Author:
Fulvio Conti
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Copenhagen in December 2009 did not produce a new international treaty with binding emissions commitments, but have defined a roadmap for dealing with global climate change in the post-2012 era. As countries continue to pursue new models for global agreement, it will be important to learn from the weaknesses of past approaches, while building on positive aspects of the experience with the Kyoto Protocol so far.
Topic:
Climate Change, United Nations, and Kyoto Protocol

275. Climate Change Policies: Many Paths Forward

Author:
Paula Dobriansky and Vaughan Turekian
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The twelve years since the conclusion of Kyoto have provided an abundance of ideas and experiences that can contribute to effective global action to address climate change. Individually, developed and developing countries are establishing and implementing national policies and investing in new technologies. Internationally, governments, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are working together in numerous venues to share ideas, to coordinate policies in areas such as regulation, research, and investment, and to distill lessons that can be incorporated into new policies. Linking these many efforts, which range from large international exchanges to targeted multilateral groups to actionoriented partnerships, will be crucial to success in combating climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Non-Governmental Organization, and Kyoto Protocol

276. The São Paulo Proposal for an Improved International Climate Agreement

Author:
Erik Haites
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
An effective international climate agreement poses formidable challenges. Existing agreements, naturally, have some good features. Further improvements are being discussed in the current negotiations. But the cost and uncertainty associated with regular renegotiation of commitments is not being addressed. The São Paulo Proposal suggests mechanisms that would avoid the need for regular renegotiation of commitments and suggests other ways to make international climate agreements more effective.
Topic:
Climate Change, United Nations, and Kyoto Protocol

277. Nuclear Terrorism: Threat Briefing

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Key Questions Nuclear Terrorism: Threat Briefing Who could be planning a nuclear terrorist attack? What nuclear weapons could terrorists use? Where could terrorists acquire a nuclear bomb? When could terrorists launch the first nuclear attack? How could terrorists deliver a nuclear weapon to its target?
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

278. Nuclear Terrorism Fact Sheet

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In 1998, Osama bin Laden issued a statement, “The Nuclear Bomb of Islam,” declaring that “It is the duty of Muslims to prepare as much force as possible to terrorize the enemies of God.” Means With 25 kg of HEU, terrorists could make an improvised nuclear device (IND). Opportunity An IND can be delivered to its target along the same routes that bring drugs, illegal immigrants, and legal goods to major cities of the world.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and United Nations

279. Reducing the U.S. Transportation Sector's Oil Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Author:
Henry Lee, Kelly Sims Gallagher, W. Ross Morrow, and Gustavo Collantes
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Harder Than it Looks. Reducing oil consumption and carbon emissions from transportation is a much greater challenge than conventional wisdom assumes. It will require substantially higher fuel prices, ideally in combination with more stringent regulation. Higher Gasoline Prices Essential. Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transportation sector 14% below 2005 levels by 2020 may require gas prices greater than $7/gallon by 2020. Tax Credits Expensive. While relying on subsidies for electric or hybrid vehicles is politically seductive, it is extremely expensive and an ineffective way to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near term. Climate and Economy Not a Zero Sum Game. Aggressive climate change policy need not bring the economy to a halt. Even under high-fuels-tax, high-carbon price scenarios, losses in annual GDP, relative to business-as-usual, are less than 1%, and the economy is still projected to grow at 2.1-3.7% per year assuming a portion of the revenues collected are recycled to taxpayers.
Topic:
Climate Change and Oil
Political Geography:
United States

280. Pakistan's Nuclear Posture: Implications for South Asian Stability

Author:
Vipin Narang
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Terrorists from Lashkar-e-Taiba—a group historically supported by Pakistan—laid siege to Mumbai in November 2008, crippling the city for three days and taking at least 163 lives. But India's response was restrained; it did not mobilize its military forces to retaliate against either Pakistan or Lashkar camps operating there. A former Indian chief of Army Staff, Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury, bluntly stated that Pakistan's threat of nuclear use deterred India from seriously considering conventional military strikes.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, and Asia