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372. Settlers, Refugees, and Immigrants: Alternative Futures for Post-Settlement Cyprus
- Author:
- Neophystos G. Loizides and Marcos A. Antoniades
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The central theme of this article is the introduction of scenario planning in the negotiation of the settler, refugee, and immigration issues in Cyprus and other divided societies. While advocating support for the United Nations Plan for the Comprehensive Settlement of the Cyprus Question (the .Annan Plan.), the article proposes alternative ways of linking its immigrant, Turkish settler and Greek Cypriot (GC) refugee quotas. The Turkish Cypriot (TC) community is provided with a choice between a community-homogeneous future with fewer settlers and refugees, and a multicultural one with more of each. Subsequently, an explicit link is made between the numbers of the Greek Cypriot refugees and those of the Turkish settlers, immigrants, and TC émigrés. This paper argues that a TC constituent state which accommodates more of the latter should also be in a position to welcome more GCs under a low percentage of the TC population: a potentially win-win situation. Finally, we address the scenario in which TCs opt for a multicultural future but GC refugees do not actually resettle, with a safeguard provision that compensates the GC side in another issue such as security, government, or even territory. By compensating possible losses in one area with favorable readjustments in another, these safeguards eliminate worst case scenarios for both sides, preserve the initial balance of the negotiated settlement, and maximize the negotiability and credibility of the Annan Plan. At the same time, the settler, refugee, and immigration issues are linked in new and innovative ways to emphasize a better human rights environment for all.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Human Rights, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Europe
373. If Not Balancing, What? Forms of Resistance to American Hegemony
- Author:
- Jeremy Pressman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- While traditional understandings of international affairs would predict the formation of a balancing coalition against the dominant U.S. position in world affairs, some analysts now contend that the U.S. advantage is so comprehensive and so unprecedented that we have not seen and will not see balancing behavior on the part of second tier powers like China, Russia, Japan, and Germany. It would be a mistake, however, to assume that the absence of balancing means the United States will not face any meaningful opposition in the international arena. Though in the short term a bloc of states is unlikely to form a counter-coalition. the historical form of resistance to dominant powers other states still find important ways to resist U.S. dominance.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Japan, China, and Germany
374. Federalization of Foreign Relations: Discussing Alternatives for the Georgian-Abkhaz Conflict
- Author:
- Bruno Coppieters, Tamara Kovziridze, and Uwe Leonardy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since its declaration of independence on April 1991, Georgia's sovereignty has been challenged by civil war and by secession attempts on the part of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Negotiations on the reintegration of these two entities through federalization have failed. The Russian Federation, the United Nations (UN), and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) in Europe were involved in a series of negotiations on a federal division of powers between Georgia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, but these negotiations did not achieve practical results. The positions between the Georgian government and the Abkhaz authorities concerning the status of Abkhazia have been moving even further apart.
- Topic:
- Security and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia
375. Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: A Progress Update
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In the past year, there has been notable progress in ensuring that stockpiles of the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons around the world are secured from theft and transfer to terrorists. But there remains a dangerous gap between the pace of progress and the scope and urgency of the threat – a gap that, if left unfilled, could lead to unparalleled catastrophe. We must close the gap – to take action now that, within a few years, could reduce the danger that terrorists might turn the heart of a U.S. city into a new Hiroshima to a fraction of what it is today. This paper is intended to outline the continuing threat; summarize the progress made in addressing it in the past year, and the gaps that still remain; and recommend steps to close the gap between threat and response. The terrorists who have sworn to kill Americans wherever they can be found have undertaken an intensive effort to get a nuclear bomb, or the materials and expertise needed to make one. We need to be racing as fast as we can to stop them before they succeed. This paper is about steps to win that race.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Hiroshima
376. Good Governance Rankings: The Art of Measurement
- Author:
- Marie Besancon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Governance is the delivery of political goods—beginning with security—to citizens of nation-states. Good governance results when nation-states provide a high order of certain political goods—when the nation-states perform effectively and well on behalf of their inhabitants. Rotberg says that nation-states “exist to provide a decentralized method of delivering political (public) goods to persons living within designated parameters....” and “it is according to their performances—according to the levels of their effective delivery of the most crucial political goods—that strong states may be distinguished from weak ones...” The social contract between ruler and ruled embodies effective delivery of these political goods—and what this hierarchy of crucial political goods entails is based on societal norms and beliefs.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, and Government
377. Myth and Narrative in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
- Author:
- Deborah West
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The function of narratives was discussed at great length. It was suggested that in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, each side's narrative is rooted in fear and insecurity, albeit for different reasons. Each side fears destruction, and, in another sense, each side fears peace. If peace comes, each side will have to reorganize it- self. This process is difficult because it is psychologically easier to organize against a clearly defined opposing force than without one. In order to move be- yond the traditional opposition, each side must recognize and legitimize the other side's fears as well as its own.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
378. Governing Nigeria: Continuing Issues after the Election
- Author:
- Deborah West
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- A summary, rather than a transcript, of the conference discussion follows. There was space only for a selected appreciation of the many individual contributions. Participants were provided with an opportunity to review this summary before publication.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
379. Assessing Vulnerabilities to the Effects of Global Change: An Eight-Step Approach
- Author:
- Colin Polsky, Dagmar Schröter, and Marybeth Long Martello
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- There is a growing call among researchers interested in studying global change and associated effects on society and ecosystems to examine vulnerabilities as well as impacts. Such a move would require a renewed emphasis on the factors that constrain and enable coupled human - environment systems to adapt to stress. Although a picture is emerging of what general factors global change vulnerability assessments should address, it is less clear what methods are needed for this endeavor. This paper presents results from a workshop held in October 2002 to explore the issue of methods and models for vulnerability assessments. The results include an objective for global change vulnerability assessments, a set of five information criteria that vulnerability assessments should satisfy for achieving this objective, and a set of eight steps designed to satisfy those criteria. The proposed objective for global change vulnerability assessments is to inform the decision - making of specific stakeholders about options for adapting to the effects of global change. The five criteria for achieving the objective are that vulnerability assessments should: engage a flexible knowledge base, be place - based, consider multiple and interacting stresses, examine differential adaptive capacity between and within populations, and be prospective as well as historical. The eight steps for satisfying the criteria are: define the study area in tandem with stakeholders, get to know places over time, hypothesize who is vulnerable to what, develop a causal model of vulnerability, find indicators for the components of vulnerability, weight and combine the indicators, project future vulnerability, and communicate vulnerability creatively. We expect most readers to identify some of the steps as self - evident and part of their well - established disciplinary practices. However, most readers should also identify one or more steps as uncommon to their research traditions. Thus taken together the eight steps presented here constitute a novel methodological framework.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, Human Welfare, and Treaties and Agreements
380. A Changing of the Guard: The U.S. National Guard and Homeland Defense
- Author:
- Jay Smith
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since the September 11 attacks, the federal government has undertaken a fundamental review of the U.S. defense priorities. The terrorist strikes against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon exposed the extraordinary vulnerability of the U.S. homeland that some had warned against over the last several years. There is now widespread agreement that the threat of terrorist attack against the United States is likely to be a long-term reality. Given this situation, the Bush administration's decision to reassess its policy on homeland security is wholly appropriate.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States