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11. A Blueprint for a Comprehensive US Counterterrorism Strategy in Yemen

Author:
Danya Greenfield and Barbara K. Bodine
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the explosion of violent conflicts from Tripoli to Gaza, the Middle East is looking more unstable and unpredictable than ever. While the focus in Washington is centered on jihadist extremists in Iraq and Syria at present, the threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) against the United States continues. Top al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen is hailing the territorial gains of ISIS in Iraq, and some al-Qaeda operatives are imitating ISIS' techniques such as public slaughters of those deemed infidels, prompting fears of cooperation between two of the most active Islamist militant networks. Recent aggression by the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia rebel militia, against state institutions and tribal opponents has opened a new front of instability and security vacuum that AQAP is all too ready to exploit. Inattention to the interconnected nature of tribal conflict, terrorist activity, poor governance, economic grievances and citizen discontent is proving to be a dangerous combination for both Yemen and the United States. The Yemeni context may seem far from the current focus on Baghdad and Damascus, but getting the US strategy right in Yemen will have consequences for regional stability and core US interests throughout the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Labor Issues, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Syria

12. Reforming Tunisia's Troubled Security Sector

Author:
Bassem Bouguerra
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The December 2010 self-immolation of twenty-six-year-old itinerant fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi sparked popular protests in Tunisia that rippled throughout the Arab world. Like so many of Tunisia's youth, Bouazizi felt disenfranchised by the Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali regime. For over twenty-three years, a corrupt security apparatus allowed Ben Ali to rule the country with an iron fist. The public avoided criticizing the regime or even mentioning Ben Ali's name for fear of reprisal. During the Tunisian revolution, protesters demonstrated their anger at the security institutions that perpetuated the regime's hold on power by attacking police stations. With the fall of the regime, Tunisians began to publicly voice their opinions on previously forbidden issues such as politics, corruption, and police abuse.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Reform
Political Geography:
Arabia and Tunisia

13. Online Voting: Rewards and Risks

Author:
Peter Haynes
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In a world of near-infinite computing power, ubiquitous connectivity, cloud-based services, and big data, the fact that the vast majority of countries holds elections using paper ballots appears an anomaly.
Topic:
Government, Science and Technology, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States

14. Mexico's Energy Reform: Mexico "Ready to Launch"

Author:
David L. Goldwyn, Neil R. Brown, and Megan Reilly Cayten
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Mexico is poised for an energy renaissance. It has ample reserves of oil and natural gas, experience in energy production, promising economic fundamentals, and industrial expertise. In recent decades, Mexico has suffered from declining oil production, insufficient gas supply, and high electricity prices.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Oil, and Reform
Political Geography:
Mexico

15. Avoiding the Blind Alley: China's Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
PRESIDENT XI JINPING ANNOUNCED a sweeping overhaul for China's economy in November 2013, with pledges to make market forces decisive, treat homegrown and foreign investors with the same laws and regulations, and change the mission statement of the government. The reform program, known as the Decisions plan and presented at the Communist Party leadership's Third Plenum meeting, is comprehensive and marks a turning point in China's modern history. The degree of boldness also indicates that after 35 years of world-beating economic performance, China's development model is obsolete and in need of urgent, not gradual, replacement. To justify the risks, President Xi quoted an impassioned plea for policy modernization by his predecessor Deng Xiaoping: the only way to avoid a dead end – a blind alley – is to deepen reform and opening both at home and with the world.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:
China

16. An Economic NATO: A New Alliance for a New Global Order

Author:
C. Boyden Gray
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In the aftermath of World War II, the greatest concern facing the United States and its European allies was restraining the Soviet Union and preventing the spread of communism. Cooperation on military security was paramount, and the United States and Europe rose to the challenge by creating NATO, a new type of multilateral defense agreement. Once again, the transatlantic relationship is at a new and perilous crossroads. But now it is economic, rather than military security that is at risk. Crisis grips the economies of Europe, just as the United States, mired in historic levels of unemployment in the wake of the 2008 recession, is rethinking its strategic priorities and place in the world. As before, fears mount concerning the future of liberal democracy and Western capitalism. The question is whether transatlantic cooperation will again rise to the challenge.
Topic:
NATO, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and North America

17. Does Beijing Have a Strategy? China's Alternative Futures

Author:
Banning Garrett and Robert A. Manning
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As China's National Party Congress gathered in early March to anoint Xi Jinping and the next generation of Chinese leaders, Beijing's behavior at home and abroad strongly suggested that, while they have strategic goals, they have no strategy for how to achieve them. Beijing seems unable to change course from following a development model it has outgrown and pursuing assertive, zero-sum foreign policies that are counter to its long-term interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Corruption, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
China and Asia

18. Egypt's Litigious Transition: Judicial Intervention and the Muddied Road to Democracy

Author:
Mahmoud Hamad
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Egypt's judiciary has played a central role in the country's transition since the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. The political forces that led the uprising agreed on almost nothing except their profound rejection of dictatorship, corruption, and injustice. The military generals who took over from Mubarak lacked the imagination or the will to set out a clear roadmap to democracy. Ultimately, it fell to the judiciary to shape many aspects of the transition. In the legally murky climate of the past two years, judges drew fire from forces across the political spectrum, issuing decisions affecting the public perception of their objectivity.
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

19. Post-revolutionary Politics in Libya: Inside the General National Congress

Author:
Karim Mezran, Fadel Laman, and Eric Knecht
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Piecing together the nascent political picture in Libya is essential to understanding the current roadblocks to democracy. Unlike Egypt, no single party, force, or personality anchors the political scene. Unlike Tunisia, no coalition provides a gauge of the relative strength of political groups. In Libya, where parties were banned even before the reign of Muammar al-Qaddafi, post-revolution politics remain fluid, loyalties fleeting, and ideological fault lines less defined than in its North African neighbors. Nevertheless, ten months after the country's first free elections, an early snapshot of the contemporary political scene is coming into focus.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Regime Change, and Reform
Political Geography:
Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia

20. Stability through Change: Toward a New Political Economy in Jordan

Author:
Faysal Itani
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Although it appears Jordan has survived the Arab uprisings thus far, all is not well in the Hashemite Kingdom. Over the past twenty years, its political economy has changed profoundly, putting pressure on the foundations of regime stability. The state in Jordan has been retreating from many citizens' economic lives, shrinking its circle of privilege and patronage, and leaving the population to fend for itself in a dysfunctional economy. Worryingly, the segment of the population most affected is the monarchy's base, which sees the Palestinian-Jordanian population as benefiting from the new status quo. Today, Jordan is also coping with hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, many of whom may remain in the country long term. Yet the real danger to the monarchy's stability is not the immediate cost of refugee care but the alienation of its traditional power base.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan