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Begin New Search Publishing Institution Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies

21. Presidential Power In An Age Of Terror

Author:
Abraham Wagner
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
For most of the nation's history, questions about Presidential or executive power have not been constant, but they have certainly been recurring. At the outset of the republic, the nature of the chief executive was a matter of substantial concern to the founding fathers and a matter of considerable debate at the time of the Constitutional Convention. The early days under the Articles of Confederation had not gone all that well, and the hope of the Constitution's authors was to draft a more viable plan for a democratic government. Following 1789, the first years of the Republic were largely an experiment in democracy, characterized by a series of relatively weak presidents prior to Lincoln, presiding over a very small federal government that faced issues that were not as grave as that ones to follow in Lincoln's time and afterwards.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

22. Force in Our Times

Author:
Robert Jervis
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Recent world politics displays two seemingly contradictory trends: on one hand, the incidence of international and even civil war shows a very great decline, but on the other hand the US, and to a lesser extent Britain and France, have been involved in many military adventures since the end of the Cold War. The causes are numerous, but among them are the unipolar structure of world politics, which presents the US with different kinds of threats and new opportunities. Central also is the existence of a Security Community among the leading states. A number of forces and events could undermine it, but they seem unlikely to occur. Even in this better world, however, recessed violence will still play a significant role, and force, like other forms of power, is most potent and useful when it remains far in the background.
Topic:
Civil War, Cold War, War, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States and France

23. Civil War Outcomes

Author:
Roy Licklider
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
This paper attempts to summarize the rapidly expanding literature on civil war outcomes, organizing it around three central questions, all of which remain under debate: (1) what are civil wars, (2) how do we know when they end, and (3) what can outsiders do to help end them and prevent their recurrence? It focuses on the normative and ethical issues involved in negotiated settlements to civil wars: do they reduce violence or not, do they encourage democracy or not, the conflict between amnesty and justice which they often raise, and, if they are seen as desirable, when are they likely to occur and how, if at all, can outsiders support them.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Human Rights, and War

24. The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny Not A Pound

Author:
Jack Snyder and Erica Borghard
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
A large literature in political science takes for granted that democratic leaders would pay substantial domestic political costs for failing to carry out the public threats they make in international crises, and consequently that making threats substantially enhances their leverage in crisis bargaining. And yet proponents of this audience costs theory have presented very little evidence that this causal mechanism actually operates in real—as opposed to simulated—crises. We look for such evidence in post-1945 crises and find hardly any. Audience cost mechanisms are rare because (1) leaders see unambiguous committing threats as imprudent, (2) domestic audiences care more about policy substance than about consistency between the leader's words and deeds, (3) domestic audiences care about their country's reputation for resolve and national honor independently of whether the leader has issued an explicit threat, and (4) authoritarian targets of democratic threats do not perceive audience costs dynamics in the same way that audience costs theorists do. We found domestic audience costs only as secondary mechanisms in a few cases where the public already had hawkish preferences before any threats were made.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Politics, Political Theory, and Public Opinion

25. Free Hand Abroad, Divide And Rule At Home

Author:
Jack Snyder, Robert Y. Shapiro, and Yaeli Bloch-Elkon
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Under unipolarity, the immediate costs and risks of war are more likely to seem manageable for a militarily dominant power like the U.S. This does not necessarily make the use of force cheap or wise, but it means that the costs and risks of the use of force are comparatively indirect, long-term, and thus highly subject to interpretation. Unipolarity, combined with the opportunity created by September 11, opened a space for interpretation that tempted a highly ideological foreign policy cohort to seize on international terrorism as an issue to transform the balance of power in both the international system and American party politics. This cohort's response to the terrorist attack was grounded in ideological sincerity, but also in the routine practice of wedge issue politics, which had been honed on domestic issues during three decades of partisan ideological polarization and then extended into foreign policy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, International Political Economy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and America

26. Just Deserts in Iraq: American Vengeance for 9/11

Author:
Linda J. Skitka and Peter Liberman
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
In January 2002 national survey data, we find a strong relationship between Americans' desire to avenge 9/11 and their bellicosity toward Iraq, even after controlling for the perceived terrorist threat, left right ideology, and approval of U.S. political leaders. This effect could have been due to suspicions of Iraqi complicity in 9/11 stemming from prior enemy images of Iraq, or to the effects of anger and desires for revenge on out-group antipathy, displaced blame, and optimistic assessment of war risks. We test the out group antipathy hypothesis and find evidence that anti-Arab and anti-Muslim antipathy partially mediated vengefulness's effect on bellicosity. Vengeance, in turn, was boosted by retributiveness (proxied by rightwing authoritarianism) and patriotism. While perceptions of the Iraqi threat probably assumed greater importance over the course of the following year, additional survey data shows that even as war approached, most supporters acknowledged it would satisfy a desire for revenge.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, and Arabia

27. Fortune or Evil? The Effects of Inward Foreign Direct Investment on Corruption

Author:
Pablo M. Pinto and Boliang Zhu
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and grand corruption in host countries. We argue that the effects of FDI on government corruption are conditional on the host country's underlying economic and political climate: FDI will be associated with higher corruption levels in political and economic environments where competition is restriced. We adopt an empirical strategy aimed at dealing with the underlying endogeneity problem. We construct an instrument for inward FDI based on a measure of remoteness. We test our hypotheses on the conditional effects of FDI on corruption in an instrumental variable two-stage least-squares setting, finding preliminary support for our argument: the effect of FDI on corruption is positive in authoritarian and poor countries, and turns negative as countries develop and become more democratic. We also find that the marginal effect of FDI on corruption in democratic and rich countries is smaller.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

28. Are American Civil-Military Relations Still A Problem?

Author:
Richard Betts
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Since Huntington wrote, major changes have occurred in the United States' external security environment and domestic political institutions. These have not fundamentally changed the nature of civil-military relations. The enduring issues are tensions over the military preference for overwhelming force, and over the boundary between military expertise and political authority. Since Huntington wrote, the problem of civil-military relations has proved more modest and manageable than many feared it would be, not clearly worse or more dangerous than conflicts between political leaders and other government bureaucracies. The realistic solution is not a rigid application of either of Huntington's ideal types, but pragmatic compromises that tilt in favor of "objective control." Critics of objective control have neglected the extent to which civilian mistakes in making strategy rival the military's. They have neglected to confront the arguments against subjective control, in part because they focus on limitations of objective control for optimizing the functional imperative, or because they misjudge the dangers posed by newly overt partisanship of the officer corps, dangers that would only become acute if subjective control becomes the norm.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and Civil Society
Political Geography:
United States and America

29. Iraq, the U.S., and the Region after an American Withdrawal

Author:
Robert Jervis
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
The US will leave Iraq at some point, and needs to plan for this eventuality. There are many uncertainties involved, but taking them seriously is the first step toward being able craft a policy that will reduce the damage to us, Iraq, and the region. Even if the US stays until the violence is brought down, its departure will lead to the reopening of local and regional bargains because of the lack of enforcement. The greatest danger is that heightened civil war will lead to intervention by Iraq's neighbors, but the very possibility of large-scale violence creates possibilities for arrangements to avoid it because all of the parties know that they could lose badly if things get out of control.
Topic:
International Relations and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East

30. The Individual Sources of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from Survey Data

Author:
Pablo Pinto
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Political leaders in troubled democracies around the world have resorted to an anti-foreign rhetoric to justify the adoption of policies restricting foreign imports, and the free flow of capital and people, allegedly in defense of the national interest. And this rhetoric has resonated positively with large sectors of the electorate in those countries. A similar trend, exploiting a nationalistic sentiment for economic purposes, is observed in campaigns in the United States to buy American. Most studies to date have analyzed the causes and consequences of economic nationalism at the state level. However, there is good reason to believe that sources of economic nationalism should be traced at the individual level: some individuals might be willing to embrace economic nationalism purely on self-interest, yet others will be forced to trade off material and ideational preferences in order to support the national industry. The existence of this tradeoff at the individual level has important implications for coalition formation on trade, investment and migration policy-making. While recent studies suggest that cultural and ideational interests are likely to influence individual attitudes towards trade, one of the central policy dimensions in economic nationalism, the empirical content of the tradeoff between material and non-material preferences remains untested to date. Using data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP 2003) we explore whether the effect of nationalism on attitudes towards protectionism varies with the individual's position in the economy. We find preliminary evidence that nationalism systematically affects attitudes towards trade in the United States, but less so in the Philippines. We also find that the effect of nationalism is conditional on individuals' skill, or position in the economy.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, Economics, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Philippines