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121. Liberty above All: Vladimir Ryzhkov and the Republican Party of Russia

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Since its disastrous showing in the 2003 Duma elections, Russia's badly splintered and quarrelling democratic opposition has been trying to find ways to forge a common platform that would unite and energize its sizeable but apathetic and disillusioned constituency. The stakes are very high. The liberal (that is, in Russian political parlance, right-of-center, pro-market, pro-reform, and pro-Western) forces view the Putin Kremlin's turn to recentralization of national politics and the economy as a dead-end street, leading to creeping authoritarianism, rampant corruption, political crises, economic slowdown, and even disintegration. In this perspective, forging a united opposition strong enough to contest the Kremlin's control over the Duma in 2007 and the presidency in 2008 acquires particular urgency.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

122. Institutions, Restoration, and Revolution

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
In its pursuit of an authoritarian recentralization of Russian politics and a greater state presence in the economy, the Putin government is increasingly steering Russia away from the liberalizing course that has characterized the previous decade and a half.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

123. Putin's Risks

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Western and Russian observers alike have watched with mounting concern for slightly more than a year as President Vladimir Putin has tried to consolidate the Kremlin's control over Russia's politics and economy. From the campaign against the YUKOS oil company to the elimination of regional elections, Putin—a growing chorus of critics argues—is leading the country toward authoritarianism.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

124. The Fed: Pulling on a Rubber Band

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On December 13 the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate, the principal tool for setting monetary policy, by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent. At the same time, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors greatly simplified what had been a tortured statement explaining the basis for their actions and the factors that will govern future actions. The statement was remarkably brief: Despite elevated energy prices and hurricanerelated disruptions, the expansion in economic activity appears solid. Core inflation has stayed relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained. Nevertheless, possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices have the potential to add to inflation pressures. The Committee judges that some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives. (emphasis added).
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance

125. Why the Dollar Is Rising . . . Again

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Let's begin with a riddle: Why is the dollar like a Republican president? Answer: Because the dollar faces incessant predictions of imminent collapse, but in the end it wins out over weaker alternatives.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

126. Japan Moves toward Sustainable Recovery

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Japan's stock market, one of the world's strongest this year, is up about 20 percent since spring. It is doing remarkably well for a country whose nominal GDP is still below its 1997 level. By contrast, the U.S. stock market has been drifting lower all year. The S 500 Index is down about 4 percent in the last five months, even more when the highflying energy sector is excluded. This is the case despite U.S. nominal GDP having grown by a cumulative 46 percent since 1997. Clearly, stock markets are looking ahead and seeing a brighter future for Japan than for the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia

127. Can Disasters Be Good for Growth?

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The U.S. economy was in recession when the 9/11 terrorist attacks struck New York and Washington, D.C. Yet within a few months, despite fears of a collapse in confidence, consumption growth surged to a fourth-quarter annualized rate of nearly 5 percent, up sharply from a 1 percent rate during the third quarter. That consumption surge was enough to drag the economy out of what turned out to be a mild recession. By the first quarter of 2002, overall growth reached a booming 5 percent rate.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, New York, and Washington

128. America's Resilient Consumers

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Among the more remarkable features of the U.S. economy over the past five years—through a tech-stock collapse (from which we have still not recovered), the 9/11 disaster, and numerous chastening corporate scandals —has been the extraordinary resilience of American consumers. To paraphrase H. L. Mencken, no one has ever gone broke (at least not recently) by overestimating the willingness of Americans to spend money.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and America

129. Can the Fed Achieve a Goldilocks Tightening?

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The persistence of annualized economic growth of about 3.5 percent—despite crude oil prices between $50 and $60 per barrel—has led many analysts to claim that the U.S. economy has already "absorbed" the shock of $2.35-plus-pergallon prices for self-serve regular gasoline along with a rise in heating oil costs of more than 30 percent over the last year. As if to underscore their insouciance over energy costs, American consumers accelerated the volume of vehicle purchases in June, especially those of light trucks that get only twelve or thirteen miles per gallon.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and America

130. Europe's Struggling Currency Union

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Clear signs of political and economic stress have emerged from Europe in recent weeks. Rumors have circulated about discussions of a possible breakup of Europe's currency union, and one renegade Italian official, Welfare Minister Roberto Maroni, expressed a wish that Italy could return to the lira in order to get some help from a weaker currency to relieve Italy's current recession. Perhaps more telling, 54 percent of Germans polled would like to abandon the euro and return to the deutschemark. Similarly, the inflationary impact of the move from the gilder to the euro was cited by many of the Dutch citizens who voted decisively against ratifying the European Constitution.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Italy