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1. Libyan Dialogue: Uphill Battle, Limited Chances for Success

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
As analysts and observers attempt to parse out the intricacies of the current Libyan conflict, the United Nations is sponsoring a dialogue to bring together the warring parties and attempt to find a political solution. This paper proposes that while there are factors which increase the likelihood of successful dialogue, the reality is that internal disputes within each of the political parties, as well as regional and international attention to other, more pressing matters, mean that the dialogue is actually an uphill battle.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Political Parties, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

2. Consent by Force: Strategies to Avoid Failure in Syria

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Geneva II did not bring about any significant humanitarian or political advancement. The Assad regime attended the talks under pressure from Russia and in order to avoid being labelled as the party refusing a peaceful solution. The regime’s unwillingness to negotiate during the talks was unprecedented because it perceived that both regional and military contexts were more favourable to it than they had been prior to the Geneva invitation. However, the perception that things are in the regime’s favour is a mirage. The catastrophic humanitarian situation is threatening the international mood, especially given that Geneva II has thus far been an exercise in absurdity. Another American announcement to supply light-calibre weapons to the Syrian opposition highlights the possibility of escalation of fighting, forcing the negotiation process forward as the more desirable option.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

3. Syrian Presidential Elections: Final Blow to Geneva

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
With interest in the Geneva conference’s lacklustre progress fading, and the Syrian regime’s presidential election showcase, any prospects for a political solution based on the 30 June 2012 Geneva declaration have been completely erased. The declaration, which was the basis for Geneva II in January 2014, had called for the formation of a transitional government drawn from both the regime and the opposition. Given this reality, and with the international community’s attention turned to other issues, the possibility of a political solution will be set even further back after the recent 3 June 2014 elections. It is likely that both parties to the conflict – the regime and its allies as well as the opposition and its supporters – will continue to strengthen their military and negotiating positions before any potential political process is launched. In addition, unpublicised contact between Iran and western countries will continue as a “second track” of the Syrian crisis.
Topic:
Syrian War, Revolution, Presidential Elections, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

4. Syrian Opposition: Risks of Fragmentation and Necessity of Consensus

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Syrian revolution’s landscape, with several centers of political and military power rather than one unified center, seems to be accelerating towards a breakdown. A number of factors, including the path towards Geneva II, lukewarm US-Saudi ties, wider differences between the internal and external opposition and the formation of the Syrian Islamic Front, have contributed to this impending breakdown. If the opposition is able to form an interim government despite considerable uncertainties as well as despite the necessary link with and responsibility to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, it will provide a great opportunity to strengthen the relationship between internal opposition groups and those abroad. The most urgent challenge to the Syrian revolution today is enhancing confidence of all political and military powers in such a way that consensus is built on all levels. Anything short of that will render the revolution (militarily and politically) even more vulnerable to the changing winds around it.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, Revolution, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria