Search

Begin New Search Topic Governance Publishing Institution Afrobarometer

1. Proximity to riots: Spatial exposure and attitudes toward the police in Africa

Author:
Souleymane Yameogo
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Riots have devastating consequences for communities, including the destruction of infrastructure, businesses, and human lives. The police, tasked with restoring order, are often perceived as either protectors or sources of threat and incompetence. This research investigates the impact of riot exposure on public trust in the police by incorporating both temporal and spatial dimensions of exposure, diverging from previous studies that focused solely on temporal effects. Using the terror management theory (TMT) framework, extended to inter-group conflict, this study conceptualises the police and the public as distinct groups whose behaviours and attitudes may conflict during riots. Matching geocoded Afrobarometer data with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and employing a spatial difference-in-differences analysis, the study reveals a complex relationship between riot exposure and public trust in the police. While exposure to riots negatively impacts trust among residents living closer to riot sites – driven by heightened anxiety and direct exposure to violence – it increases trust among those living farther away. Furthermore, riot type and severity play crucial roles. Mob violence, with its chaotic nature, tends to bolster trust in the police, while violent demonstrations, which are more organised and often pursue political goals, do not. Moreover, lethal riots erode public trust in police more than non-lethal ones do. These findings underscore the importance of context-sensitive policing strategies that address the security concerns of riot-affected communities while maintaining trust across diverse populations. Policy makers must balance suppressing violence with building resilience and protecting vulnerable communities.
Topic:
Political Violence, Governance, Law Enforcement, Institutions, Police, Professionalism, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa

2. Economic prosperity and public backing for transparent and accountable governance in Africa

Author:
Nnaemeka Ohamadike and Emmanuel Chukwuebuka Orakwe
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Popular demands for social justice in Africa, as in the rest of the world, are often embedded in calls for better governance (Gray & Khan, 2010), which often include transparency and accountability. Przeworski, Stokes, and Manin (1999) define political accountability as the capacity of citizens to exert control over their leaders through institutional sanctions, especially through elections. Lindberg’s (2009) attempt to simplify the concept of political accountability resonates with Ohamadike (2022), who defines political accountability as the link between citizens (the principal) and government or public officials (the agents) tasked with safeguarding the rights and aspirations of the populace. This link forms a social contract upon which the agents (government or public officials) can be held accountable for their actions, with the principal having the privilege to impose sanctions on the agents, which can include removing them from their positions of power. Political transparency and accountability complement one another, but popular support for these ideals varies widely at the country level in Africa. Both ideals can be considered “matching parts” in governance (Hood, 2010). Transparency entails making government information accessible to the public, which gives citizens the knowledge needed to hold officials accountable. Accountability, on the other hand, requires that public officials justify their actions and decisions, which can be done by adhering to the citizens’ demands (Armah-Attoh, Ampratwum, & Paller, 2014). Addressing citizens’ demands is important for government to remain popular and relevant to the people. Although experts have long connected transparency and accountability with strong government performance, citizens vary in how much they prioritise or even support these concepts. One factor that might impact how citizens form these attitudes is economic well being. This question – the impact of economic performance on attitudes about accountability and transparency – is underexplored. We argue that lower levels of economic development are associated with higher citizen support for accountability and transparency. Due to the pervasive poor economic outlook in most African societies, much of the citizenry is gruelingly aware of deep-seated government corruption and poor government responsiveness to citizen needs, which they often feel powerless to tackle (Franz, 2012). Citizens of less-prosperous economies might perceive transparent and accountable governance as a means to address urgent economic issues, allowing them to get more from their government. Conversely, economic prosperity can incentivise individuals to back a government that seems to be achieving results independently, diminishing citizens’ insistence on changes, such as government transparency and accountability. This perspective emerges from trust in the government’s competence, which could cultivate complacency regarding the necessity of transparency and accountability. To test this hypothesis, we conduct a multilevel logistic regression analysis using data from the Afrobarometer Round 8 survey. We find that economic factors significantly influence attitudes. Citizenship in a prosperous African country is associated with lower support for transparent and accountable governance, whereas living in a less affluent country is associated with heightened prioritisation. This paper is structured as follows: Part 2 discusses the research methodology, covering the data, data sources, and analytical techniques. In the results section, findings from a sample of 48,084 Africans are presented. Concluding discussions follow in Part 4.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Accountability, Transparency, and Public Banking
Political Geography:
Africa

3. Willingness of Zambians to sacrifice democratic principles during a pandemic: The case of COVID-19

Author:
Isaac Newton Bortey
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
What is the impact of a pandemic on citizens’ willingness to sacrifice democratic principles? Using the novel COVID-19 pandemic as a case, I assess how the effects of COVID-19 influence Zambians’ willingness to sacrifice democratic principles through censorship of the media, postponement of elections, and the use of security forces to enforce public health mandates. I analyse data from the Round 8 Afrobarometer survey in Zambia (collected in 2020 from 1,200 adults), which included questions on COVID-19. Results of a multiple linear regression and a logistic regression suggest that Zambians’ experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic have an influence on their willingness to sacrifice democratic principles. Those who lost a job due to the pandemic are less willing to accept a sacrifice of democratic principles, while positive assessments of the government’s management of the pandemic and perceptions of the pandemic as serious increase people’s willingness to suspend democratic principles. The findings also suggest that Zambians’ trust in the president and their perceptions of the government as legitimate make them more willing to agree to forfeit a democratic principle, at least when the country is faced with a pandemic.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Democracy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

4. Remittances and corruption perceptions in Africa

Author:
Alex Yeandle and David Doyle
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The relationship between remittances and corruption is contested. For some authors, external income endows individuals with financial buffers, which undermine these individuals’ incentive to hold governments to account and allow rent-seeking politicians to invest fewer resources in public goods. For others, remittance payments undermine clientelist networks and increase individual-level political engagement and accountability. For others still, remittances diffuse social norms, since senders are likely to live in large cities or wealthier countries where corruption is less tolerated. However, despite being rooted in individual-level assumptions, many of the conflicting results in the extant literature have an empirical focus at the aggregate level. In this paper we offer a corrective, explaining variation in individual-level perceptions of corruption among remittance recipients through a new mechanism. With survey data from 34 African countries, we show that recipients are endowed with greater cash income, which is used to bribe officials in the hope of securing preferential access to basic services. This act of paying bribes, coupled with the fact that access does not appear to improve, fuels perceptions that the government is corrupt.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Leadership, Accountability, and Bribery
Political Geography:
Africa

5. Keeping tabs? Perceptions of relative deprivation and political trust in Africa

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
What are the implications of economic inequality for trust in government and state institutions? Political trust performs important functions in representative political systems, facilitating the efficient functioning of government, simplifying complex political processes, and reducing monitoring costs for ordinary people. The existing literature has shown that macroeconomic performance (including levels of inequality) and evaluations shape political trust. This paper addresses two gaps in the literature by focusing on the role of individual perceptions and subjective experiences of inequality and by studying cases in Africa. Using Afrobarometer survey data collected from more than 40,000 respondents in 34 African countries between late 2016 and mid-2018, I use multi-level modelling to demonstrate that perceptions of relative deprivation are significantly associated with less trust in representative government institutions and, more weakly, with less trust in state institutions. The effect of perceptions of relative deprivation remains significant when controlling for macroeconomic conditions and performance evaluations. In effect size, trust in representative government institutions is at least comparable to frequently cited covariates of trust such as location, level of education, and government economic performance, suggesting that perceived relative deprivation is indeed an important covariate of such trust. Feeling relatively advantaged is also significantly associated with greater trust in representative government institutions. This may reflect strong neo-patrimonial ties between citizens and political agents. In demonstrating that individual-level economic considerations affect political trust in Africa, we challenge the conventional wisdom that only macroeconomic factors affect trust.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa

6. Can cities cope?

Author:
Francis Kibirige, John Martin Kewaza, Ronald Makanga Kakumba, Stevenson Ssevume Male, Muhammad Ssenkumba, George William Kayanja, Fred Male, and Pius Tibaingana
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
On 1 July 2020, less than a year before January 2021 presidential and parliamentary elections, Uganda’s minister of local government, acting under the Local Governments Act and with the approval of Parliament, elevated 10 of the 15 earmarked municipal councils across the country to city status (Parliament of the Republic of Uganda, 1997, 2020). City status, equal in stature to district local government status, is the highest level that local government units can attain under the current law and is synonymous with near-autonomy, including significant political influence and more control over resource mobilisation and use. Residents in the newly elevated city environs celebrated this administrative milestone amid surging expectations of immediate upgrades of public-services infrastructure and jobs. But the respective administrations awoke to the realities of over-stretched, outdated services infrastructure, and inadequate funding incapable of meeting the heightened level of demand. Can these new cities fulfil their mandate – even in the face of COVID-19-related impacts on the economy and personal living conditions – and cope with soaring public expectations? Evidence from the 2022 Afrobarometer survey suggests that it will not be easy, as the public mood, engagement with elected local leaders, and public service-delivery ratings are on the decline while mistrust, perceptions of official corruption, and resentment toward paying taxes are on the rise.
Topic:
Education, Health, Governance, Leadership, Institutions, Social Services, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

7. Taxation for development: The impact of the Ebola epidemic on citizen support across West Africa

Author:
Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez and Shaun Da Costa
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
We explore the impact of the Ebola epidemic on attitudes toward taxation for development in West Africa. Utilising representative surveys from before and after the peak of the crisis, we estimate the impact of Ebola using both objective (recorded case rates) and self-reported measures of exposure (knowing a friend/relative who was infected with/died from Ebola). In addition, we consider the indirect impact of Ebola on redistributive preferences through disruption to different domains of life, including school, work, social gatherings, and medical care. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that higher levels of Ebola exposure and disruption are associated with greater levels of support for taxation for development.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Ebola, Tax Systems, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea

8. Population density and governance in Africa

Author:
Pranish Desai
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Across Africa, denser populations are associated with less confidence in institutions and the rule of law. What does that mean for the world’s fastest-urbanising continent?
Topic:
Governance, Population, Urbanization, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Africa

9. Unresponsive and corrupt? Ugandan MPs hold key to how citizens perceive them

Author:
Matthias Krönke and Ronald Makanga Kakumba
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Uganda’s legislature is made up of 556 members of Parliament (MPs) who are meant to represent and serve their constituents and oversee the government’s actions. Since President Yoweri Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party came to power in 1986 and appointed all members of Parliament, the country’s legislature has changed in several important ways (Kasfir & Twebaze, 2009). First, today all MPs are either directly elected via a first-past-the-post system or indirectly elected via special electoral colleges. Second, the number of parliamentarians has almost doubled over 25 years, from 295 in the 6th Parliament (1996-2001) to 556 in the current 11th Parliament (Inter-Parliamentary Union, 1996; Parliament of Uganda, 2022).1 This drastic increase can be attributed to the continued creation of new constituencies and the allocation of parliamentary seats for special-interest groups. Proponents of this development say it reflects citizens’ demands, but critics describe it as part of a political strategy to protect and grow the ruling party’s seat share in Parliament by increasing the number of constituencies in NRM strongholds (Nakatudde, 2020; Tumushabe & Gariyo, 2009). This debate has now entered a new phase with the recent ruling by the country’s Constitutional Court that Parliament and the Electoral Commission violated articles 51 and 63 of the Constitution by creating new constituencies that do not meet the population quota, based on data from the 2002 and 2014 census counts. The upshot of this ruling are proposals to downsize Uganda’s Parliament and redraw constituency boundaries (Barigaba, 2022). Third, the operating costs of the growing Parliament (MP and staff salaries, allowances, etc.) have increased drastically over the past two decades. Today Ugandan MPs’ salaries (35 million Uganda shillings, or about USD 9,700, per month) surpass those of most MPs elsewhere in Africa and in the European Union (BusinessTech, 2017; Olukya, 2021; Tumushabe & Gariyo, 2009). The cost of running Uganda’s 11th Parliament was expected to increase by more than 50 billion Ugandan shillings (USD 14.1 million), a substantial increase compared to the previous Parliament (Mufumba, 2021). Fourth, the share of MPs who return to Parliament after their first term in office continues to decrease. While about 50% of MPs did not return for a second term in the 6th (1996-2001) and 7th (2001-2006) Parliaments, this rate has increased to 53% (2006-2011), 55% (2011-2016), and 58% (2016-2021) in subsequent Parliaments. Most recently, of the 457 MPs in the 10th Parliament, 319 were not voted back to the 11th Parliament (2021-2026), while 31 did not contest or chose to run for other offices, and only 107 MPs returned (Kasfir & Twebaze, 2009; Forum for Women in Democracy, 2016; Independent, 2021). How do these changes affect 1) how citizens relate to their elected representatives and 2) how MPs address the needs of ordinary citizens? More broadly, are citizens being served by their MPs? To answer these questions, this policy paper begins by clarifying the foundations of the citizen-MP relationship and outlining the four key roles that MPs are generally expected to fulfil. The subsequent sections assess their performance in these roles against citizen expectations and other indicators. We find that Ugandans are becoming increasingly aware of their role in holding their MPs accountable. Most citizens are dissatisfied with how their MPs are doing their jobs, perceive them as corrupt, and say MPs don’t listen to constituents’ concerns. Residents of the Central region and Kampala are particularly critical of their MPs’ performance, probably due at least in part to high constituent-to-MP ratios in those areas. Citizens’ assessments of MP performance are associated with MPs’ perceived responsiveness and corruption as well as whether citizens have had contact with their MPs. In contrast, citizens’ demographic characteristics and views about democracy do not seem to drive their views of their elected representatives. There are two clear policy implications of these findings. First, at the institutional level, it is important to even out the citizen-to-MP ratios across the country. This is in line with the recent constitutional court ruling to base the creation of constituencies on census data. The second policy implication of our findings is that MPs have it in their own hands to change how citizens view their performance by improving on how they engage with them.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

10. Does sensitivity bias lead respondents to misreport their level of trust in political parties? An investigation into Afrobarometer’s survey results and methodology

Author:
Loubna Marfouk, Martin Sarvas, Jack Wippell, and Jintao Zhu
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This paper explores the presence of politically sourced sensitivity bias, which leads respondents to report alternative answers to their true beliefs, in Afrobarometer’s survey results. To this end, we run a set of regressions on Afrobarometer Round 7 data to explore mechanisms through which the perceived sponsor of the survey is associated with response patterns related to trust in political parties. Questions regarding individuals’ trust levels in political parties are prone to sensitivity bias insofar as political concerns can lead respondents to favour a certain response for strategic reasons. Moreover, if respondents believe that answers will be shared with the perceived sponsor of the interview, they are likely to tailor their answers to what they judge is the preferred answer of their perceived survey sponsor. We find a number of statistically significant results that suggest some sensitivity bias is present in the survey responses. In particular, we show that there are statistically significant differences in responses for self-reported trust in both opposition and ruling parties when the respondent perceives the government to be the survey sponsor compared to when they perceive the sponsor to be Afrobarometer. We also explore how these responses vary by country- specific characteristics, such as regime type. Reducing respondents’ variation in perception of the survey sponsor might alleviate biases throughout Afrobarometer’s interviews, and a set of methodological changes might mitigate the effects of this sensitivity bias in future surveys. While other studies have focused on potential bias from interviewer effects, our research suggests a new avenue for research, in Africa and beyond, on respondent perceptions of sponsorship.
Topic:
Governance, Research, Political Parties, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa