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1. Progress in Ending Statelessness in Europe

Author:
Sam Mosallai
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Europe is home to almost 500,000 stateless people or people with undetermined nationality, mainly due to the dissolution of the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia over three decades ago. Other causes of statelessness in Europe include the lack of safeguards to prevent children from being born stateless, gaps in universal birth registration, and, to a lesser extent, the deprivation of nationality as a counterterrorism measure. Many Roma, particularly those residing in Southeastern Europe, are stateless or at risk of statelessness due to persistent discrimination against them. Additionally, due to the lack of dedicated statelessness determination procedures found in many countries in Europe, many stateless migrants cannot enjoy the rights to which they are entitled under international law.
Topic:
Discrimination, Nationality, and Statelessness
Political Geography:
Europe

2. Sharks in the Muddy Waters: Terrorism and Mounting Global Disorder

Author:
Jahangir E. Arasli
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The international system is in increasing disarray, thanks partly to systemic and structural factors. The strategic competition between major powers and groups of states is growing sharply. One particular consequence of this process is an escalation in scale and scope of shooting wars and armed conflicts (e.g., in Europe and the Middle East) and other antagonisms on the edge of war (e.g., Taiwan, the South China Sea, and South Asia). Moreover, the existing geopolitical alignments are shifting oddly. Neo‑revisionism, expansionist foreign policies, and advanced territorial claims militarize international relations. With a reoccurrence of “utility of force,” the standing norms of international law are frying, and WMD proliferation regimes and arms control treaties are crumbling. Trade wars and deteriorating growth prospects are increasing strains and risks to the global economy and individual states. Political and ideological polarization in societies, institutional decay, inefficiency of elites, and the rise of populism affect states’ stability. The challenges of climate change and emerging technologies remain unanswered and unsettled.
Topic:
Terrorism, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and International System
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

3. Achieving Minimum Viable Cyber Resilience: A Leadership Top Ten “To-Do” List

Author:
Steve Hill
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
I t is a reflection of the growing maturity of the cybersecurity industry that when the UK’s Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Pat McFadden, a senior cabinet minister responsible for national security, claimed in a speech to the November 2024 NATO Cyber Defence Conference that Russia “can turn the lights off for millions,” he was roundly criticized for hyperbole. Pragmatism has replaced alarmism as the driver for persuading the state and the C-suite to invest in cybersecurity. The world has neither ever been more complex nor more fast-moving. But that is not the same as saying that the world is more dangerous. The same inter-connectedness that creates supply-chain fragility also acts as a disincentive for governments whose priorities are primarily inward-looking (domestic stability and growth) to escalate conflicts to outright regional or global warfare that will likely undermine that domestic agenda. We see therefore brinkmanship and “grey conflict” taking place throughout the world. This includes targeted assassinations, arson attacks, disruption of underseas cables, drone activity, social media election influence campaigns, and all kinds of cyber-attacks.
Topic:
NATO, Cybersecurity, Gray Zone, Resilience, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and North America

4. The New Geopolitical Scramble for Corridors

Author:
Velina Tchakarova
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The geopolitical landscape in winter 2024- 2025 is marked by significant transformation, uncertainty, and fierce competition for influence. The geopolitical hotspots of this new contest are most visible in the regions that bridge Europe and Asia—what the editors of Baku Dialogues call the “Silk Road region.” Central to this dynamic is the growing intersection of interests between major regional players against the backdrop of a Cold War 2.0, putting the West against what I was the first to call the “DragonBear” alliance of China and Russia. These corridors are not just infrastructural undertakings; they are the arteries of global power, trade, and connectivity, reflecting deeper geopolitical ambitions and contestations. This extensive analysis elaborates on today’s most significant connectivity projects, exploring their strategic implications and the new power dynamics they are fostering. In the traditional sense, empires have always relied on transport and trade corridors to project power and expand influence. From the ancient Silk Roads to the West’s colonial sea routes, the ability to control the flow of goods and resources has often equated to geopolitical dominance. Today, this principle remains unchanged, though the scale and stakes have reached unprecedented levels.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, and International Competition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

5. The Russia Factor in China’s Relations with the West

Author:
Klaus W. Larres and Lea Thome
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Tension between China and the Western world has been a characteristic of global affairs for the better part of the last decade. Notwithstanding Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States continues to view China as its greatest global rival and competitor. In fact, many policymakers in Washington (though by no means all of them) view China as an existential threat to America’s global influence and predominance. As the European Union and its 27 member states are not among the world’s superpowers, the Europeans have a somewhat more relaxed attitude toward China. Still, according to an important policy statement issued by the EU Commission in 2019, Brussels has come to see Beijing not only as a “partner and competitor” but also as a serious “systemic rival.” This refers less to geopolitical concerns but very much to global governance issues and geoeconomic, trade, and investment relations with China. The EU is deeply concerned about the continuing lack of reciprocity of market access, intellectual property theft, and China’s frequently state-subsidized competition regarding cutting-edge technology products, including solar panels, EV vehicles, and many other products, which may soon swamp the EU market. The EU Commission has launched an investigation into China’s production of EV vehicles and also Beijing’s shipbuilding industry, which it suspects may well work on the basis of rather unfair and highly subsidized support from the Chinese state.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Markets, Geopolitics, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Production
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

6. What Teaching Was Thucydides Trying to Convey? And Why It Remains So Important for Us Today

Author:
David Polansky
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
As we approach the close of the first quarter of the twenty-first century, it is striking how gloomy our world must seem compared to how it might have looked at its outset. True, the immediate post-Cold War period saw its share of civil wars and ethnic violence, but heading into a new century, at least in some circles in the West and perhaps elsewhere could still imagine that these were merely the aftershocks of the turbulent one still ending. Today, however, with two decades of costly occupations behind us, the onset of the first major cross-border land war in Europe since World War II, and escalating geostrategic competition with a still-rising China in the Pacific, matters look quite a bit different. It is only natural that we might begin to cast about for sources that could illuminate our situation. And, perhaps ironically, few books on war and politics shed such light on present circumstances as one of the earliest we still have: Thucydides’ magisterial history of the Peloponnesian War.
Topic:
History, Conflict, and Peloponnesian War
Political Geography:
Europe

7. A Model for Connectivity: Hungary’s Strong Bond with the Turkic World

Author:
Balázs Orbán
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
For more than one thousand years, Hungary has existed in the heart of Europe, drawing from our rich history and unique geographic location. Sovereignty has emerged as a cornerstone of our national strategy, influenced by our past and our geography. While we align ourselves with the West, we also cherish our Eastern heritage. Taking a pragmatic approach, we strive to build meaningful connections and engage with the non-Western world. Balancing our Western ties with our Eastern roots, Hungary seeks to foster productive relationships and promote connectivity across diverse global landscapes. In the early 1990s, Central Europe experienced significant regime changes as countries liberated themselves from four decades of communist rule and reclaimed their independence. However, in Hungary and other Central European states, the political elite failed to fully leverage this newfound sovereignty. While the aspiration to reintegrate Hungary into the Western cultural, economic, and political sphere was wellfounded—as our country had a century-long history of belonging to the West—the emphasis on this objective led to a neglect of our relationships with the non-Western world. This oversight occurred despite clear and indisputable indications that the non-Western world was quickly catching up with the West. Subsequent governments, driven by political loyalty to the West, overlooked the vast potential Hungary possessed in terms of economic and cultural relations with the non-Western world—particularly through pragmatic diplomacy. However, a significant shift occurred after the landslide victory in 2010, when the Viktor Orbán government took charge and decided to change course. Since then, connectivity has become the central guiding principle of our foreign policy and our foreign economic policy, emphasizing the importance of forging meaningful connections, diversifying trade, forging value chains, establishing diplomatic relations with multiple regions, all the while also preserving our national sovereignty in the process.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, History, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Hungary

8. ‘Appeasement’ and the Current Crisis: How ‘Munich’ Impoverishes Western Grand Strategy

Author:
Christopher J. Fettweis
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy loves to remind any Western leader who seems about to go wobbly that appeasing aggressors is not only dishonorable but strategically unwise and dangerous. When Henry Kissinger, for instance, suggested in May 2022 at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum at Davos that Ukraine may need to make territorial concessions to end the war, Zelenskyy said this: “It seems that Mr. Kissinger’s calendar is not 2022, but 1938, and he thought he was talking to an audience not in Davos, but in Munich of that time.” Indeed, Munich makes an appearance in every speech (and most off-hand remarks) that the Ukrainian president makes, as if the conference happened in 2018 rather than 1938. Zelenskyy knows his audience. The lessons of Munich and appeasement are deeply ingrained in the strategic consciousness of the United States and its allies. It is no exaggeration to suggest that the dangers posed by appeasing dictators is one of the central tenets of the Western foreign policy establishment. Those arguing for staunch opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin employ the analogy as much as possible, accusing anyone who disagrees of being ignorant of the most basic of lessons that history supposedly teaches. The word “supposedly” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. This brief essay begins by providing a historical overview of appeasement and explains how the lessons of Munich have been mislearned by generations of Western policymakers. That infamous conference did not lead to the Second World War, which was coming no matter what British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain did at the negotiating table. The essay then turns to the effect of misremembrance on U.S. foreign policy to this day, including its influence on the debates regarding Russia’s barbarous invasion of Ukraine. It would be best for everyone involved if the true history of the Munich conference was widely known, or barring that (since it is probably too late), that it was forgotten altogether. This essay provides a historical overview of appeasement, explains how the lessons of Munich have been mislearned by generations of Western policymakers, and then turns to the effect of misremembrance on U.S. foreign policy to this day.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Grand Strategy, Appeasement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

9. Time for an EU Foreign Policy Update? The EU and the Silk Road Region in Wartime

Author:
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The European Union has a short history of handling foreign policy when compared to other political actors on the international stage. Most others have a foreign policy tradition that dates back several decades, hundreds of years, or longer. The EU thus remains a paradox. This can be seen by contrasting two characteristic sets of facts. On the one hand, it has established 140 embassies (“delegations”) worldwide and states that it is the single-largest global donor of international development aid. The EU is China’s second biggest trade partner (and America’s biggest trade partner), and its 447-million population continues to set many of the world’s trade and regulatory standards (it is not without cause often described as a “regulatory superpower”). On the other hand, the EU’s foreign policy administration, known as the European External Action Service (EEAS), has existed for barely a decade and a half. In fact, its competences in international relations only date back to the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, while its instruments, strategies, and external budgets remain less than two decades old. With the exception of the EU’s enlargement policy, the EU’s foreign policy strategies—the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and the Global Strategy— only date back to 2004 and 2015, respectively. It is within this context that we must understand and analyze both the successes and challenges that the EU’s nascent foreign policy faces today. This essay first describes what is generally understood to be the EU’s foreign policy, including policies, strategies, and instruments. This is followed by an analysis of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the EU’s geopolitical and geo-economic thinking and thereby also its inherent foreign policy positions and interests. The third part briefly analyses how certain policies—namely the accession policy in the specific case of Türkiye and the Eastern P a r t n e r s h i p (EaP)—face serious challenges as a result of the geopolitical impact of the conflict over Ukraine and the gradual decoupling of Russian energ y-supplies and transportation corridors. The fourth part briefly examines how the EU is likely to inevitably reposition itself, in geographic terms, as a result of the ongoing war and its effects. This policy is likely to support a united EU that aims to fulfill its internal energy needs while obtaining sustainable access to rare-earths as well as relocated supply chains. The final part outlines how portions of a new EU foreign policy can potentially support this new geopolitical reality by establishing a more securityfocused, sustainable, and geographically diversified foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, South Caucasus, and Silk Road Region

10. The France-Azerbaijan Relationship: Realities and Misunderstandings

Author:
Maxime Gauin
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The bilateral crises of 2020 and 2022 between Paris and Baku have provoked more emotional reactions than either dispassionate analyses or detailed projects to attempt to lastingly resolve the issue. This is not to say that relations between Azerbaijan and France are anywhere near where they should be—far from it; but supporters of what the relationship has been and could be again, to say nothing of those seeking to understand its present or wanting to shape its future course in a more agreeable direction—in accordance with the national interests of both Baku and Paris—have been done a great disservice by those who, intentionally or not, distort or misinterpret the speeches and deeds of either state’s decisionmakers and influencers. The main aims of this essay are to explain the origins of the current problems and (this is inextricably linked) to challenge the misunderstandings, misconceptions, and myths accumulated on both sides. This makes it necessary to start by providing the necessary historical background, in part because a misleading version of this past is presented today. And this misdirection itself has become an obstacle for the restoration of mutual understanding, to say nothing of warm and friendly relations. The second part of the essay will examine more recent events (1988-2017). The third and final part is devoted to the contemporary period (the Macron era), with its missed opportunities, and to some discussion of possible ways to bring an end to this litany of errors.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus