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2191. Rebelocracy: A Theory of Social Order in Civil War

Author:
Ana Arjona
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
War zones are usually portrayed as chaotic and anarchic. In irregular civil wars, however, they are often ordered. Furthermore, different forms of order often coexist in areas controlled by the same non-state armed group, where the behavior of both civilians and combatants vary substantially. What explains this variation? In this paper I present a theory of the creation of order in war zones that analyzes the behavior of non-state armed groups, the responses of local populations, and the effect of their interaction on wartime institutions. My central argument is that disorder emerges when armed groups have short time horizons, which usually happens when they fight for control with other warring sides or are undisciplined; under these conditions, they are unlikely to establish a social contract with the local population. When armed groups have a long time horizon, a social contract is established, giving place to a new order. In this new order, armed groups may intervene minimally or broadly in civilian affairs; their choice, I argue, depends on the likelihood of organized civilian resistance, which is, in turn, a function of the quality of pre-existing local institutions, especially those dealing with adjudication of disputes. I also present extensions of the theory that account for variation in the strategic value of territory, variation in local capacity for collective action, and armed groups’ information about local institutions.
Topic:
International Affairs and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2192. Time, Relations and Behaviors: Measuring the Transformative Power of Love-Based Community Life

Author:
Mario Maggioni and Simona Beretta
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper is about measuring if and how vulnerable persons’ choices and attitudes change when they undergo a significant modification in their lives, as they begin experiencing care and support within durable relationships in love-based communities. Although there is anecdotal evidence that love-based experiences produce a restorative and rehabilitative impact on vulnerable people’s lives, we still lack adequate empirical frameworks for measuring the transformative power of such experiences on individual choices and attitudes. This paper proposes an innovative methodology for measuring personal transformation. We use a mix of behavioral economics experiments, textual analysis, and validated psychological tests to perform a longitudinal analysis of individuals in love-based communities. Changes in behavioral parameters and qualitative answers, observed over a significant period of love-based “treatment,” provide empirical evidence of the transformative impact on deep behavioral traits and attitudes (altruism, gratitude, sincerity, trust). This methodology, which significantly innovates on existing behavioral experiments and on conventional longitudinal studies and field experiments, has been applied to three ongoing case studies of love-based treatment: 1) formerly addicted people living in Italian rehab communities; 2) Californian convicts attending Guiding Rage into Power (GRIP) programs; 3) vulnerable schoolchildren experiencing Distance Support in Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo. This paper is meant to present our methodology to researchers interested in human and social development, hoping to receive from them comments, suggestions, and possibly interest in a collaboration on other case studies.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2193. Delegating Away Democracy: How Good Representation and Policy Successes Can Undermine Democratic Attitudes

Author:
Mathew Singer
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Theories of democratic legitimacy argue that people who believe that the government is well managed and that the government represents their interests are likely to defend the democratic status quo. Principal-agent theory predicts, however, that these same groups are also more likely to support the executive taking steps to restrict free speech or opposition rights via delegative democracy. Citizens who feel represented by an ideologically sympathetic and competent executive may be willing to delegate to him or her authority to restrict the opposition, even at the expense of civil rights. Survey data from eighteen Latin American countries from 2006 to 2012 are consistent with the principal-agent hypothesis; those who voted for the ruling party in the previous election or who perceive that the economy is strong are more likely to favor restrictions on civil rights for regime opponents. Political winners are particularly likely to display low levels of tolerance for expressions of opposition in polarized party systems. Thus, for democracy to prosper, it must not only satisfy the losers of political and economic processes but also find ways to encourage winners to exercise restraint.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2194. The Developmental Legacies of the Bifurcated Colonial State: Statistical Evidence from Sixty-Seven British, French, and Portuguese Colonies

Author:
Olukunle P. Owolabi
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of bifurcated colonial institutions—i.e. the use of distinctive legal codes for “native” vs. “settler” populations—for long-term development in 67 former British, French, and Portuguese colonies. Building on theoretical arguments by Mahmood Mamdani (1996) and Matthew Lange’s empirical research on the distinctive developmental legacies of direct vs. indirect British rule, I develop a new measure of legal-administrative bifurcation in French and Portuguese colonies. Consistent with Mamdani’s theoretical arguments, the statistical models in this paper demonstrate that bifurcated colonial institutions contributed to poor development outcomes and ineffective postcolonial governance among British, French, and Portuguese colonies alike. Regardless of the colonizing power, directly ruled colonies with a uniform and inclusive legal-administrative framework have better development outcomes than bifurcated colonial states that maintained distinctive “native” legal codes for indigenous populations. These results are robust to a variety of statistical controls, as well as to instrumental variable analysis, highlighting the enduring legacy of colonial institutions for human well-being and governmental effectiveness today.
Topic:
Post Colonialism and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2195. Islam, Christianity, and Attitudes Toward Women's Political Equality: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Kristin Michelitch and Keith R Weghorst
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Many characterize adherence to Islam as antithetical to women's political equality due to cross-national analyses showing a correlation between Muslim majority countries and higher gender inequality. Others argue that political, economic, and social contextual factors coinciding with religion confound the relationship. A third viewpoint holds that the meaning and salience of religion for women's political equality is fluid and endogenous to such contextual factors. We take a new empirical approach to address these questions by conducting analyses of gender attitudes within and across mixed Muslim-Christian countries in Africa. Consistent with the third viewpoint, we find that within-country gaps between Muslims and Christians are variable in size and direction. Such gaps are generally reduced through within-country matching, indicating at least partial confounding of religion on observable factors. While Muslims are generally more conservative than Christians, the impact of religion on attitudes is far less explanatory than country-level fixed effects and socioeconomic attributes such as gender. Religiosity increases egalitarianism for Christians but has no systematic effect for Muslims. Women of both religions are more egalitarian than men, and the effect of Islam is much larger for men than for women.
Topic:
Islam and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2196. The Time Inconsistency of Long Constitutions: Evidence from the World

Author:
George Tsebelis
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the mechanisms that establish time consistency of constitutions. It explains why shorter and more locked constitutions are more likely to be time consistent (change less), whereas long constitutions are more time inconsistent (change more, despite locking). Empirical evidence from all the democratic countries in the world indicates that the length and locking of constitutions are not independent criteria and that their combination leads to less time consistency. To address this interrelationship, I develop a measure of time inconsistency (a combination of locking and amendment rate) and show that it is connected with the length of constitutions. I show how time inconsistency is incompatible with theories of “constitutional amendment culture” (Ginsburg and Melton 2015), not only at the theoretical level but also empirically. Finally, I demonstrate that the empirical findings of Tsebelis and Nardi (2016) that length of constitutions is related to lower per capita income and higher corruption are not only in agreement with time inconsistency arguments but are corroborated beyond OECD countries to all democracies.
Topic:
International Organization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2197. Back to Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations? – Some Basic Truths

Author:
Amb Alan Baker
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Any genuine and serious peace negotiating plan for Israel and the Palestinians should naturally be seen as a welcome alternative to the present situation of impasse in the peace process. However, the American peace plan should not be overestimated or idealized by exaggerated media hype and political manipulation.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Jerusalem

2198. Escalation in the Conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Author:
Michael Segall
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Iran and Saudi Arabia, on the two sides of the Sunni-Shiite fault line, are trying to gain influence in reshaping the Middle East.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Jerusalem

2199. Congress of the United States House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform

Author:
Ambassador Dore Gold
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Today, I am not going to address the question of moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem directly. It is my view that President Donald Trump has made a commitment in that regard and I believe he will stand by what he has said. The United States will evaluate the timing and circumstances for executing that decision in accordance with its interests.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2200. Is the Saudi Throne Shaking?

Author:
Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Under the pretext of waging an anti-corruption campaign, King Salman of Saudi Arabia, in concert with his son Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (known as MBS), undertook one of the most dramatic moves in Saudi politics ever taken. They ordered the arrest of 11 royal princes, four former ministers, the chief of the Royal Navy, former heads of the Royal Cabinet, and scores of ex-officials and businessmen, including international financier Al-Waleed bin Talal.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia