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2121. G7 Economic Cooperation in the Trump Era

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten, Edwin M. Truman, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper examines how G7 cooperation can be maintained in the Trump era. Its working assumption is that the US administration will remain open to international cooperation in principle and yet be constrained by Trump’s economic nationalism and specific campaign promises, such as reducing trade imbalances. The main finding is that useful areas for G7 macroeconomic, trade and financial cooperation continue to exist even after taking US constraints into account. At the same time, other G7 leaders need to be prepared to proceed on their own if attempts to convince the US administration that G7 economic cooperation is in the interests of all members fail. Paper presented at the international conference on “Major Challenges for Global Macroeconomic Stability. The Role of the G7”, organized in Rome on 27-28 March 2017 by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) with the support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Bank of Italy.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2122. A Proposal for G7/G20 Policy Coordination to Strengthen Global Productivity and Output Growth

Author:
Malcolm D. Knight
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper is premised on the fact that the most important macroeconomic policy issue confronting global leaders at this time is the need to restore, modernize and expand the international network of basic infrastructure that underpins global economic activity. This would help foster stronger long-term productivity growth and per capita output. This paper first outlines key policy elements that are needed within each country to design and implement a successful National Infrastructure Investment Programme (NIIP). It then describes how these NIIPs could be integrated into an Internationally Coordinated Infrastructure Investment Programme (iCIIP), and the complementary roles that the G7 and G20 summit leaders could play in carrying out this vast programme of infrastructure renewal and expansion. The G7, as a tightly knit group of advanced countries, can be instrumental in giving a clear impetus to key elements of the iCIIP strategy. The G20 instead is the appropriate body to set the course of modernization and expansion of a renewed, internationally-integrated network of basic productive infrastructure, and to guide the iCIIP as it is implemented over the next decade.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2123. Germany Prioritizes the Long-term Goal of Sustainability over the Short-term Goal of Revitalizing the World Economy

Author:
Rolf Langhammer
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
While Germany continues to defend an open trading system it is not prepared to play a proactive role in pushing for liberalization of global trade. Preventing further disintegration in Europe has a higher priority for the German government than further integration in the world economy. Such priority does not only match with widespread skepticism in the German electorate on the gains from globalization. It also complies with an implicit understanding in the government that further globalization should be subject to stricter public surveillance. On nancial stability, German authorities emphasize the need to minimize the role of taxpayers in future bail-outs and giving regulators the power to force troubled banks to restructure or liquidate. Germany is also keen for the imposition of a nancial transactions tax at the global level. On macroeconomic policy, the increased reliance on domestic demand to spur growth in Germany will contribute towards global rebalancing. Given its scal space, boosting Germany’s public investment could be part of a collective e ort to address global demand weakness while addressing long-term growth challenges through structural reforms.
Topic:
International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2124. The G7’s Task for Restoring Growth and Stability

Author:
Stephen Pickford and Paola Subacchi
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Most G7 countries are facing political and economic uncertainties, and long-standing structural problems.The short-term outlook is reasonably positive, but longer term prospects are more challenging. These challenges have underlying economic causes stretching back many years, fostered by low productivity growth, stagnating real incomes and living standards, rising inequality and technological change. G7 countries should address short-term weaknesses, reduce political and policy uncertainties, and tackle these longer-term problems as well. Acting together to address these challenges will be more effective: (1) short-term and medium-term measures to boost growth should focus on fiscal actions (including infrastructure spending), normalizing monetary policy, completing financial regulatory reforms, and structural policies; (2) tackling policy uncertainties requires international consensus on consistent policies, starting with greater certainty over the direction of trade policy and over the Brexit negotiations. Sending positive signals on trade cooperation will be difficult, but the G7 could make progress on some specific issues such as a code of practice against competitive exchange rate devaluations; (3) an agenda to emphasize fairness could include: fair trading arrangements, implications of financial regulation for fairness and agreement on international corporate taxation to ensure companies pay their fair share of taxes.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2125. Reality bites: the Brexit negotiations seen from the other side of the Channel

Author:
Fabian Zuleeg
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
The Brexit negotiations continued this week with the UK government still insisting that the endpoint be an exit from the EU, including its Customs Union and the Single Market. But back in Britain, the turmoil is obvious, with different members of government taking diverging views, suggesting, at times, that a soft Brexit or a transition arrangement might be possible, even if it means concessions on the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), the exit payment, the rights of EU citizens and even (temporarily) continued freedom of movement of EU citizens.
Topic:
Europe Union and Brexit
Political Geography:
Europe

2126. Crans-Montana - A ‘now or never’ moment for a Cyprus settlement?

Author:
Amanda Paul
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
On 28 June under the auspices of the UN, the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot Communities, Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci, will meet in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, in a fresh effort to resolve the decades-old Cyprus problem following a recent five-month impasse in the talks. The three guarantor states, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom will also participate. A solution would be a win-win for both communities as well as the broader region. It would not only enhance the Cypriot economy, including possible new energy projects, but also bring a new climate of security and stability to the Eastern Mediterranean. However, while progress has been made on many areas, significant differences remain on the issue of security and guarantees. Overcoming these differences will on both sides require political courage, creative thinking and a readiness to compromise and let go of maximalist goals. Yet, even if the two leaders clinch an agreement, selling it to their respective communities will be a significant challenge as Cypriots are far from prepared for the comprises that an agreement requires.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Cyprus

2127. Repercussions of Ammar al-Hakim’s withdrawal from Iraq’s Islamic Supreme Council

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Ammar al-Hakim’s announcement on July 24, 2017 that he is stepping down as the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) came after generation- al con icts surfaced between a number of the Coun- cil’s senior gures, who had visited Tehran to demand that he should be pressured over his reliance on the youth. Moreover, al-Hakim himself rejected attempts by senior members of the council to assume govern- ment positions, and even sought to build unique rela- tions with Arab and Western countries by presenting himself as an acceptable moderate Shiite gure. The outgoing leader is preparing for the upcoming elec- tions to be held across Iraq.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

2128. What is Iran’s Approach to US-North Korea Crisis?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The escalating crisis between the United States and North Korea is of special importance for Iran. Firstly, the US Administration of President Donald Trump has designated both Iran and North Korea as an imminent threat to the national security of the United States. The approach builds on the administration of former president George W. Bush’s repeated labelling of Iran and North Korea, as well as Iraq, as key rogue states of the so-called axis of evil, who sponsor terrorism and seek to ac- quire weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

2129. Alternative Alliances Why Is Hamas Seeking Stronger Relations with Iran?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The Islamic Resistance Movement (more commonly known as Hamas) has recently intensified its efforts to enhance its relations with Iran, especially after President Hassan Rouhani was elected for a second term. It also seeks to invest favorable official attitudes inside Iran where most main- stream political parties are urging for what they believe is necessary support to some organizations operating across the region, including the occupied Palestinian Territories, and resume full- fledged relations with Hamas.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

2130. Madagascar Dealing with Multi-Faceted Crime

Author:
Mathieu Pellerin
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Recently, the successful organization of La Francophonie summit in November 2016 and the success of the Donors’ and Investors’ conference in December of the same year have ensured Madagascar’s return to the international scene. However, careful observation of the state of the country leads us to question if the crisis has continued in other forms. The economic difficulties, despite some glimmers of hope, and an increasingly vindictive opposition (in the National Assembly and elsewhere) are the most visible signs of it. The very identity of this opposition, largely built around the former transitional president, Andry Rajoelina’s, party shows that the political sequence that opened in 2009 is still not closed, and that it promises to be subject to a new crisis in the next presidential election in 2018. However, the most difficult legacy of the transition to deal with, as we demonstrated in 2014, is undoubtedly the ever more advancing pervasiveness of multi-faceted crime.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Madagascar