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1601. NATO-EU maritime cooperation: for what strategic effect?

Author:
Stefano Marcuzzi
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
EU-NATO maritime cooperation is essential to a co- ordinated response to a variety of Mediterranean is- sues, including terrorist threats, the protracted conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the refugee emergency. The EU’s Operation EUNAV- FOR Med Sophia is deployed in the Southern-Central Mediterranean, whilst NATO’s Operation Sea Guard- ian operates in the whole Mediterranean basin. NATO also launched a new activity in the Aegean in 2016. Although each operation has its own mandate, their coordination was defined as crucial in the 2016 Joint Declaration on EU-NATO cooperation. At a tactical level, these operations have by and large been successful in enhancing situational awareness in the Mediterranean; monitoring migration networks; constraining the activity of human and arms smug- glers on the high seas; and to a degree in providing as- sistance to migrants. However, they also face strategic challenges, including the failure to dismantle the smug- glers’ networks, their relatively low deterrent effect, and a limited degree of inter-institutional cooperation.
Topic:
NATO, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

1602. Financing Armed Groups During Ceasefires

Author:
Veronique Dudouet and Janel B. Galvanek
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
While the financing sources of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) both during active hostilities and after peace agreements has received much attention in the academic and peace-practitioner fields, information about the funding of NSAGs during the time between active fighting and the conclusion of a peace agreement is much less available. This study aims to fill that gap by investigating the sources of financial support for armed groups during ceasefires and peace negotiations. Through information gathered from the selected cases of ETA in the Basque Country, the LTTE in Sri Lanka, the KNU in Myanmar, GAM in Aceh, and several armed groups in Mali, the study examines the various internal and external options available for NSAG funding when a unilateral or bilateral ceasefire is in place and analyses whether ceasefires represent a fundraising constraint or an opportunity for non-state belligerents. The study also makes projections for the longer-term prospects of NSAGs’ receiving financial support to sustain their post-war security, political and socio-economic transformations. Lastly, some general lessons are drawn for third parties involved in supporting peace processes with NSAGs.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Peace, Ceasefire, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1603. The peace talks between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia-People’s Army (FARC-EP) have become a global reference for negotiated solutions to armed conflicts. The talks demonstrated how a well-prepared and robust process design can contribute significantly to the outcome of a negotiated settlement. In several ways the process broke new ground. The parties developed frameworks and established mechanisms that laid the groundwork for building legitimacy for the process and increasing confidence in it. The direct participation of victims at the negotiating table and the effective inclusion of gender in the process are examples of this.

Author:
Dag Nylander, Rita Sandberg, and Idun Tvedt
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The peace talks between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia-People’s Army (FARC-EP) have become a global reference for negotiated solutions to armed conflicts. The talks demonstrated how a well-prepared and robust process design can contribute significantly to the outcome of a negotiated settlement. In several ways the process broke new ground. The parties developed frameworks and established mechanisms that laid the groundwork for building legitimacy for the process and increasing confidence in it. The direct participation of victims at the negotiating table and the effective inclusion of gender in the process are examples of this.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Negotiation, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

1604. Inclusive constitution making in fragile and conflict-affected states

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Support for constitution making is an important element of international engagement in countries emerging from conflict or political transition. This support often focuses on promoting inclusive constitution making, recognising that this can help establish a more inclusive state and social contract, and address exclusion-related drivers of fragility. However, such support is frequently based on an incorrect assumption that an inclusive constitution-making process leads automatically to inclusive content and outcomes. This report examines key elements required to promote inclusion in the constitution-making process, the constitutional text, and in terms of outcomes from the new constitution. It argues that constitution making in fragile and conflict-affected states must be understood as part of wider political settlement bargaining that shapes the opportunity structures for promoting inclusion at every stage. Finally, the report examines both the important role international actors can play in supporting inclusive constitution making and the challenges they face in doing so.
Topic:
Constitution, Fragile States, State Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1605. Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World: The Case for Rules

Author:
James A. Dorn
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Since monetary policy operates in an uncertain world, discretionary policymaking relying on macroeconomic models of the economy is a weak reed upon which to base policy. The complexity of economic systems and constant changes in the underlying data mean errors may occur in a discretionary regime that can lead to monetary and financial instability.1 The 2008 financial crisis is a case in point: central bankers and their expert staffs failed to anticipate the crisis, and may have worsened it by keeping policy rates too low for too long (Taylor 2012). Moving to a rules‐​based regime would not eliminate radical uncertainty, but it could decrease institutional uncertainty—or what Robert Higgs (1997) has called “regime uncertainty”—and thus reduce the frequency of policy errors. Higgs focused on the uncertainty caused by fiscal and regulatory policies that attenuated private property rights by decreasing expected returns on capital. A discretionary monetary regime increases uncertainty about the future purchasing power of money and thereby undermines an important property right.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Economic structure, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1606. Revisiting the determinants of non-farm income in the Peruvian Andes in a context of intraseasonal climate variability and spatially widespread family networks

Author:
Carmen Ponce
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Non-farm income sources are increasingly important in the developing world, representing up to 50 percent of average rural household income. Although there is a vast literature on the determinants of rural households’ strategies for income diversification, two factors associated with long-term transformations and common to many developing countries, have not yet been integrated into the analysis: (i) the role of intraseasonal climate variability (affected by climate change), and (ii) the role of family networks located in distant areas (increasingly important given population displacement due to the internal conflict and increasing connectivity via roads and communications). Whereas an increase in climate variability entails an increase in risk and vulnerability for farm activities, family networks located in distant regions(that do not share the local climate or market shocks) may become a key asset for managing risk and fostering income opportunities (as long as they convey information and opportunities that are not available through local networks). Given the market imperfections that are common in developing rural areas—especially those related to climate risk management—explicit consideration of both factors is key to understanding rural households’ diversification strategies. The study aims to contribute to this pending agenda, investigating the role of these two factors on a household’s income diversification into non-farm activities in the Peruvian Andes, a mountain region with large intraseasonal climate variability and limited but increasing spatial connectivity, where the rural population was severely affected by the internal conflict that took place in the country during the eighties and nineties.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Rural, Industry, Ecology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

1607. Adaptation to climate change in the tropical mountains? Effects of intraseasonal climate variability on crop diversification strategies in the Peruvian Andes

Author:
Carmen Ponce
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Crop diversification, selection of tolerant crops, and intercropping are some of the strategies that Andean farmers, as well as farmers in other mountain regions, have historically used to cope with climate-related risks and take advantage of heterogeneous agricultural land (with plots located at different altitudes, facing different environmental conditions). This study analyzes the role of climate variability —during the growing season— in the use of these strategies, in a context of climate change in the Andean region. Using agrarian census data from 1994 and 2012 (district panel), the author finds that —controlling for other climate conditions and socio-economic factors—, an increase in intraseasonal climate variability leads farmers in colder areas (<11˚C during the growing season) to concentrate their crop portfolio into more tolerant crops and reduce intercropping (a practice potentially efficient at controlling pest and disease). This effect is especially strong in the Southern region. Given that Andean farmers received little to no help to adapt to climate change during the period under analysis, this study informs about farmers’ autonomous adaptation to climate changes and some specific issues that need to be part of the public intervention agenda.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Rural, Economic Development, Land, Ecology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

1608. The impact of intimate partner violence on child development in Peru

Author:
Mariel Bedoya, Karen Espinoza, and Alan Sanchez
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Resarchers used longitudinal data from a cohort of Peruvian children (n=1,720) tracked starting at the age of 1 year old to test the association between alcohol-induced physical IPV (intimate partner violence) against the mother during the child’s first two years of life, and the child’s cognitive, socio-emotional and schooling outcomes between the ages of 5 and 8. Multivariate regression techniques are used to estimate the relationship of interest, as they allow for controlling of child, household, and community characteristics. The authors find that early life exposure to IPV is negatively associated with cognitive outcomes (vocabulary and math test scores) for all children, and with self-efficacy for girls. We find no association with child’s self-esteem and age of school enrollment indicators. The effects are larger among children whose mothers are better educated and live in urban areas. Results remain robust across different specifications and after isolating changes in relevant variables over time.
Topic:
Development, Children, Gender Based Violence, Violence, and Intimate Partner Violence
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

1609. 2018 Summit on the Future of Europe Back to Square One

Author:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The Summit on the Future of Europe is an initiative of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies (CES) at Harvard University. Since 2014, this annual conference has convened scholars and public leaders to debate critical challenges facing Europe. The 2018 Summit convened at Harvard on November 7, 2018 and was a partnership of CES, the Harvard Kennedy School’s Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship, the diaNEOsis Research and Policy Institute, the European Stability Initiative (ESI), Central European University (CEU), and Real Colegio Complutense (RCC) at.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Political stability, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1610. China’s Carbon Market: Accelerating a Green Economy in China and Reducing Global Emissions

Author:
Yifei Zhang, Jonathan Harris, and Jim Li
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
The National Carbon Emission Rights Trading Market (ETS) Construction Plan (Power Generation Industry) was released in Beijing on December 19 , 2017 by China’s government. As promised during COP23 held in Bonn, Germany in November 2017, this is a key step to fulfilling China’s commitment to the Paris Agreement. The performance of ETS pilot projects in seven provinces of China have been evaluated since October 2011. The supporting policies were also thoroughly analyzed at both local and central government levels. Analysis of the pilot projects shows that the national ETS just initiated in China will not only strengthen supply-side structural reform and carbon-saving patterns of economic growth, but it will also contribute to poverty alleviation by introducing ecosystem valuation into the market. This is a practical application of the “Two Mountain Theory” suggesting that the economic and ecological systems can work in harmony, as proposed by President Xi and emphasized in the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on development, poverty alleviation and environmental protection in October 2017. Policy suggestions in terms of economic characteristics, industrial development and regional differences were developed to improve the effects of ETS in China. Taking advantage of differences in the costs of reducing emissions and expanding the size of the trading market are key to success.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:
China and Asia