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201. What Drives Deforestation and What Stops It? A Meta-Analysis of Spatially Explicit Econometric Studies

Author:
Jonah Busch and Kalifi Ferretti-Gallon
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We have constructed a comprehensive database of 117 spatially explicit econometric studies of deforestation published in peer-reviewed academic journals from 1996-2013. We present a metaanalysis of what drives deforestation and what stops it, based on the signs and significance of 5909 coefficients in 554 multivariate analyses. We find that forests are more likely to be cleared where economic returns to agriculture and pasture are higher, either due to more favorable climatological and topographic conditions, or due to lower costs of clearing forest and transporting products to market. Timber activity, land tenure security, and community demographics do not show a consistent association with either higher or lower deforestation. Population is consistently associated with greater deforestation, and poverty is consistently associated with lower deforestation, but in both cases endogeneity makes a causal link difficult to infer. Promising approaches for stopping deforestation include reducing the intrusion of road networks into remote forested areas; targeting protected areas to regions where forests face higher threat; tying rural income support to the maintenance of forest resources through payments for ecosystem services; and insulating the forest frontier from the price effects of demand for agricultural commodities.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United Nations

202. The Health Financing Transition: A Conceptual Framework and Empirical Evidence

Author:
William Savedoff and Victoria Fan
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Almost every country exhibits two important health financing trends: health spending per person rises and the share of out-of-pocket spending on health services declines. We describe these trends as a "health financing transition" to provide a conceptual framework for understanding health markets and public policy. Using data over 1995-2009 from 126 countries, we examine the various explanations for changes in health spending and its composition with regressions in levels and first differences. We estimate that the income elasticity of health spending is about 0.7, consistent with recent comparable studies. Our analysis also shows a significant trend in health spending - rising about 1 percent annually - which is associated with a combination of changing technology and medical practices, cost pressures and institutions that finance and manage healthcare. The out-of-pocket share of total health spending is not related to income, but is influenced by a country's capacity to raise general revenues. These results support the existence of a health financing transition and characterize how public policy influences these trends.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Health, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

203. A New Development Agenda

Author:
Daniel F. Runde and Scott Miller
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The link between economic development and state security has been well established but is still too often overlooked. Former secretary of defense Robert Gates argued in support of development efforts as a form of “preventative diplomacy,” preventing the conditions where violent crises occur that may require more aggressive intervention. For example, rising food prices in Egypt have been cited as a major instigator for the protests that overthrew Hosni Mubarak. That does not mean that Mubarak could have stayed in power if only food were more affordable, but higher levels of economic development and the concurrent factors that encourage it could have made the transition more stable and less violent.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

204. Peace and Stability in the Post-Conflict Era

Author:
Douglas Farah, Robert D. Lamb, and Carl Meacham
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The project that culminated in this report was conceived just over a year ago as an initiative to assess the major accomplishments in strengthening the Colombian government's efforts to bring peace and stability to its countryside.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Terrorism, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:
South America

205. Lessons from Abroad for the U.S. Entitlement Debate

Author:
Richard Jackson
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
FROM THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE AND THE GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE TO THE BOWLES-SIMPSON AND DOMENICI-RIVLIN COMMISSIONS, everyone who has looked seriously at the fiscal arithmetic agrees that there is no solution to America's long-term budget problem that does not include fundamental entitlement reform. After all, federal entitlement programs make up well over half of federal spending today and account for all projected growth in noninterest outlays as a share of GDP over the next three decades.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Reform
Political Geography:
America

206. U.S.-Russia Health Engagement

Author:
Judyth L. Twigg
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Over the last few years, Russia's relationship with the United States has traveled a swift and seemingly deliberate arc from partner to pariah. The current turmoil in Ukraine and near-certain resulting isolation of Russia culminate several years' worth of deteriorating ties. The Edward Snowden mess, disagreements over Syria and Iran, dismay over the eroding human rights environment in Russia, and now Russian annexation of Crimea have led the previously heralded "reset" to an unceremonious end. What are the implications of these and related developments for U.S.-Russia collaboration in medicine and public health? Should avenues of partnership remain open, even in such a frosty political context? Should the international community support Russia's health sector when ample resources exist within Russia itself? Is it even possible anymore?
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Health, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and North America

207. The Global Youth Wellbeing Index

Author:
Nicole Goldin
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Youth comprise a quarter of the world's population, but remain an underutilized source of innovation, energy, and enthusiasm in global efforts to achieve and promote the increased wellbeing of all. As children grow and mature into adults, they make choices that affect not only their own wellbeing, but that of their families, communities, and countries. Youth-inclusive societies are more likely to grow and prosper, while the risks of exclusion include stinted growth, crime, and unrest. Therefore, it is imperative that education and health systems, labor markets, and governments serve their interests and provide the policies, investments, tools, technology, and avenues for participation they need to thrive and succeed. Yet, at a time when policy and investment decisions are increasingly data driven, data on youth development and wellbeing is often fragmented, inconsistent, or nonexistent. Thus, our understanding of how young people are doing in their own right and vis-à-vis their peers elsewhere is limited. As a result, the needs of young people often remain unexposed and marginalized by their complexity.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Education, Health, Human Rights, and Youth Culture

208. Afghanistan after the Drawdown

Author:
Gerald F. Hyman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In his 2013 State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama announced that by the end of 2014 "our war in Afghanistan will be over" and, a month earlier, that "by the end of next year, 2014, the transition will be complete—Afghans will have full responsibility for their security, and this war will come to a responsible end." The military transition, successful or not, is in full swing. Of course the war will not come to an end in 2014, responsible or otherwise. Even if the military drawdown goes as planned, "America's commitment to a unified and sovereign Afghanistan will endure, but the nature of our commitment will change," the president said. On the military side, our enduring commitment will focus on training, equipping, and funding the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and "some counterterrorism efforts that allow us to pursue remnants of al Qaeda and their affiliates," presumably the Taliban. As the United States draws down, so too will the remaining coalition countries of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) under North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) command.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia

209. Assessing Future Water Availability in Arid Regions Using Composition and Salience of Decision Criteria

Author:
Laura Diaz Anadon, Afreen Siddiqi, and Farah Ereiqat
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Water resources development options are usually selected on a least-cost basis. While economic considerations are dominant in choosing projects, there are also a mix of other factors including social demands, political expediency, social equity, and environmental considerations that impact final decisions and development of water supply systems. Understanding local priorities in water resource management decisions can allow for forming expectations of future regional water availability. In this research, we propose that future water availability in arid regions may be assessed by considering key projects that have been identified or planned by regional experts. Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis methods as a framework to organize set of decision criteria and their relative salience, the likelihood of selection (and development) of a project can be determined and used to form expectations of future regional water availability. We use this approach in a case study for Jordan, and find that large-scale desalination projects–that have been in the planning books for decades-are now most likely to be pursued and implemented in the country. Finally, we discuss strengths, limitations, and the general applicability of this method for assessing future water availability in other arid regions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:
Middle East

210. The Indian Ocean Region: A Strategic Net Assessment

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This study examines the key strategic risks that shape the stability and security of the Indian Ocean Region or IOR. This means examining risks that cut across a vast span of territory that directly affects both the global economy and some 32 nations–some within the limits of the Indian Ocean, but others that play a critical role in shaping the security of the nations in the IOR region and the security of its sea lanes and petroleum exports.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
India and Asia