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682. Disrupting the Supply Chain for Mass Atrocities
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- Mass atrocities are organized crimes. Those who commit genocide and crimes against humanity depend on third parties for the goods and services—money, matériel, political support, and a host of other resources-that sustain large—scale violence against civilians. Third parties have supplied military aircraft used by the Sudan Armed Forces against civilians, refined gold and other minerals coming out of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and ensured a steady flow of arms into Rwanda. Governments seeking to prevent atrocities cannot afford a narrow and uncoordinated focus on the perpetrators of such violence. Rather, an effective strategy must include identifying and pressuring third-party enablers— individuals, commercial entities, and countries—in order to interrupt the supply chains that fuel mass violence against civilians.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, and Genocide
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
683. Do Public Transfers Discourage Farmer Participation in Subsistence Crop Production? Empirical Evidence from Botswana
- Author:
- Tebogo Seleka and Khaufelo Lekobane
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- We analyze the impact of public food and cash transfers on farmer participation in Botswana’s subsistence arable agriculture. The results indicate that publicly provided social pensions and food packages (rations) reduce the probability of participation in subsistence crop farming. Engagement in paid off-farm employment, which is sometimes facilitated through a public works programme (PWP), also discourages farmer participation in the subsistence economy. Therefore, public food and cash transfers and the PWP yield work disincentive effects in Botswana’s subsistence agriculture. This is because transfers are usually consistent and regular in Botswana, impacting on household behaviour. The design of social protection policies should therefore consider such potential disincentive effects on the agricultural sector.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Economic Development, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
684. Factors Underlying Communal Beef Cattle Marketing Decisions in Botswana: The Role of Public and Private Transfers
- Author:
- Tebogo Seleka and David Mmopelwa
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- This article examines factors underlying communal beef cattle marketing at a household level in Botswana, with emphasis placed on the role of public and private transfers. Results show that public and private transfers (pensions, remittances, government food rations, and food supplies from friends and relatives) discourage cattle marketing. Thus, while they are important sources of household food security, cash and food transfers may adversely impact on beef export performance in Botswana. It is therefore fundamental that public transfer programmes are well targeted to needy and poor households, in order to minimize their adverse effects on the cattle industry. On the positive side, the paper argues that public transfer programmes may assist poor farmers rebuild their cattle and other livestock inventory, contributing to transition out of inter-generational poverty.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Public Policy, Economic Development, Private Sector, and Cattle
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
685. Competition and Trade Policy: The Case of the Botswana Poultry Industry
- Author:
- Masedi Motswapong and Roman Grynberg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- The poultry sector is the most successful example of import substitution in Botswana with the country having achieved national self sufficiency. The paper describes the value chain in the industry and shows how, given the small size of the market, a high degree of market concentration exists. There is an estimate of the loss of consumer surplus from the current trade regime. The paper raises issues regarding the fundamental tension between competition and industrial policy in a small developing country. As the larger firms in the poultry industry move towards export readiness after 32 years of protection, the question of a new trade and industry regime is considered.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Economic Development, Trade Policy, Strategic Competition, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
686. The Arab Spring and Democratization in China
- Author:
- Youngjin Kim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Since the fall of Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in early 2011, the outbreak of the “Arab Spring” has reasserted the universality of democracy. The question then of whether a “Jasmine Revolution” would occur in China has drawn the attention of foreign and domestic observers as well as raised the concern of the Chinese government. Today, even at the official level, the scope of debate on so called “Western-style” democracy is very limited in China regardless of the political standing of any politician whether conservative or progressive. It would be impossible to imagine in this case that there could be any debate over democracy that would lead to sweeping political reforms in the Chinese Communist Party. While on the other end of the political spectrum, a grass roots movement for democracy is also unlikely to develop. Most of the core figures involved in the democratic movement are either in exile overseas, under heavy restrictions at home, or have lost their momentum as time has passed by. Furthermore, possibly the greatest obstacle to any democratization movement in China is the reluctance of the middle-class. While often considered as a powerful driver for democratization in the rest of the world, it would be difficult to expect them to play the same role in China. Simply, the middle-class is the greatest beneficiaries of state-led economic growth and is unlikely to take part in any rapid political transformation. In this regard, the Chinese middle-class is far more conservative than that of any other country. To what extent then would a “Jasmine Revolution” be possible? There are four possible scenarios on the prospect for democratization in China. First, continued high economic growth is destined to bring about democratization. From the perspective of functionalism, improved standards of living as well as expansion of higher education, media, and an increasing consciousness of human rights will make democratization feasible within a certain period. However, such a viewpoint has some limits in that it blindly applies the experiences of the West and a few countries in East Asia to China without any consideration for its distinct history and social conditions. Second, there is the possibility for democratization due to impending social challenges mounting in China. In other words, if a combination of social problems builds up, the Chinese government would be unable to manage them under in its current repressive way. In this situation, the government would have to introduce democratic measures, such as freedom of speech and direct elections, to a substantial extent. Such a prospect though is unlikely to happen in the near future since high economic growth, increases in consumer expenditure, and the elevation of China’s international status will continue for a while, unless a major economic crisis were to occur in China or in neighboring countries. Even if such a crisis were to occur and the Chinese government implements measures for political reform, a soft-landing through democratization would not be guaranteed. Rather, it is highly probable that the unresolved problems would weaken the political control of the government and lead to political disorder. Third, a kind of flexible authoritarianism may be sustained for a long time. China has secured its legitimacy among the population through rapid economic growth, social welfare, administrative efficiency, and an assertive foreign policy. Simultaneously, it has maintained the stability of its system through strict control, systematization, and mass mobilization. Such a flexible authoritarian government is considered a prime alternative to Western-style democracy by the Chinese leadership and pro-government scholars. From such a viewpoint, it would seem unlikely to expect democratization in China for the time being. Lastly, there is a possibility that China would experience political chaos and division, a scenario that covers neither gradual democratization nor flexible authoritarianism. Authoritarian governments unable to actively promote reforms in the political system often fail to meet the social demands which have accumulated as marketization expands. Continued corruption and incompetence in the government leads to public dissatisfaction and might bring about the collapse of the system as in Eastern Europe. In Eastern Europe, countries had implemented ‘shock therapy’ solutions to fix the problems of the socialist system. However, such rapid changes, in some cases, caused severe chaos rather than bring about a smooth transition to democracy. This hard landing scenario cannot be excluded in regarding the future of democratization in China. From a realistic perspective, even though China cannot avert the flow of democratization in the end, top-down democratization or limited democratic reform led by the Chinese Communist Party is more likely as Chinese civil society has yet to fully mature. Nevertheless, as political reforms would weaken the Chinese Communist Party and increase social instability, top-down democratization is likely to be restricted. And this limited reform might even fail to solve social problems ahead. In this case where there is no alternative social force for the Communist Party and its leadership, the direction for the development of Chinese politics will be unpredictable and could bring about unexpected results. China will therefore go through a difficult transition period due to intricate conflicts among domestic political forces.■
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Middle East, and Asia
687. "Dreams Don't Come True in Eritrea": Anomie and Family Disintegration due to the Structural Militarization of Society
- Author:
- Nicole Hirt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes contemporary Eritrea's acute crisis within the framework of the theory of anomie. It is based on the hypothesis that militarization, forced labor, mass exodus, and family disintegration can be interpreted as the consequences of two incompatible norm and value systems: the collectivist, nationalistic, and militaristic worldview of the former liberation front and ruling party People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), and the traditional cultural system of Eritrea's society. In 2002 the regime introduced an unlimited "development campaign," thereby forcing large parts of the society to live as conscripts and perform unpaid labor. This has caused a mass exodus of young people and a rapid process of family disintegration. The article is based on empirical fieldwork and evaluates the ongoing developments, which have led to rapid economic decline and the destabilization of the entire fabric of society.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Migration, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Eritrea
688. Nigeria: A Prime Example of the Resource Curse? Revisiting the Oil-Violence Link in the Niger Delta
- Author:
- Annegret Mähler
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the oil-violence link in the Niger Delta, systematically taking into consideration domestic and international contextual factors. The case study, which focuses on explaining the increase in violence since the second half of the 1990s, confirms the differentiated interplay of resource-specific and non-resource-specific causal factors. With regard to the key contextual conditions responsible for violence, the results underline the basic relevance of cultural cleavages and political-institutional and socioeconomic weakness that existed even before the beginning of the “oil era.” Oil has indirectly boosted the risk of violent conflicts through a further distortion of the national economy. Moreover, the transition to democratic rule in 1999 decisively increased the opportunities for violent struggle, in a twofold manner: firstly, through the easing of political repression and, secondly, through the spread of armed youth groups, which have been fostered by corrupt politicians. These incidents imply that violence in the Niger Delta is increasingly driven by the autonomous dynamics of an economy of violence: the involvement of security forces, politicians and (international) businessmen in illegal oil theft helps to explain the perpetuation of the violent conflicts at a low level of intensity.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Crime, Economics, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Africa
689. Gendering the Security Sector: Protecting Civilians Against Sexual and Gender-Based Violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo
- Author:
- Randi Solhjell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- International responses to the conflicts in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) bordering Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda have been widely criticized as inadequate. The region is poorly understood by the international community. The general international preference for working with states and institutions – in a region where none of these exists in the form familiar to the West – complicates responses significantly.
- Topic:
- Crime and Gender Issues
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
690. Contested Leadership in International Relations: Power Politics in South America, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Daniel Flemes and Thorsten Wojczewski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Given the importance of the assertion or prevention of regional leadership for the future global order, this paper examines the strategies and resources being used to assert regional leadership as well as the reactions of other states within and outside the respective regions. Secondary powers play a key role in the regional acceptance of a leadership claim. In this article we identify the factors motivating secondary powers to accept or contest this claim. Three regional dyads, marked by different degrees of “contested leadership,” are analyzed: Brazil vs. Venezuela, Indis vs. Pakistan, and South Africa vs. Nigeria. The research outcomes demonstrate that the strategies of regional powers and the reactions of secondary powers result from the distribution of material capabilities and their application, the regional powers' ability to project ideational resources, the respective national interests of regional and secondary powers, and the regional impact of external powers.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Globalization, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Africa, South Asia, India, Brazil, South America, Venezuela, and Nigeria