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131. Basis and Implications of the ICC's Ruling Against Myanmar

Author:
Tanushree Nigam
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
n a major decision, the International Criminal Court ruled on September 6, 2018 that the Court may exercise jurisdiction over the crime of alleged deportation of the Rohingyas from Myanmar to Bangladesh. The Pre-Trial Chamber accepted the OTP’s argument that the Court may exercise jurisdiction over the crime of cross border deportation of Rohingyas even though the alleged crime had been committed in Myanmar which is not a State Party. The Pre-Trial Chamber stated that this could be done as some “elements of the crime” had taken place in the territory of Bangladesh, which is a State Party. This judgment makes a towering statement that ICC’s jurisdiction is objective rather than subjective in nature. In this post, I discuss the basis and implications of the Chamber’s findings.
Topic:
Legal Theory, International Criminal Court (ICC), Humanitarian Crisis, and Deportation
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Myanmar

132. Concerns for Jordan's Stability

Author:
Oden Eran
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
In the first years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, the common assessment was that the Hashemite Kingdom was able to cope with the challenges it confronted, despite the various internal and external political pressures, including the demographic pressure created by the wave of refugees from Syria. However, cracks in this image of stability have begun to emerge, and there are increasing indications that the developments in the country could lead to a serious undermining of the regime, with long term strategic ramifications. The destabilization process could, for example, be sparked by protracted mass demonstrations, some of them violent, a loss of control over the situation by security forces, and a loss of the palace's control over parliamentary decisions.
Topic:
Popular Revolt, Political stability, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Jordan

133. Political Inclusion, Disability and the Sierra Leone 2018 General Elections: Some Policy Insights

Author:
Alex Sivalie Mbayo
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
For several decades, since the end of civil wars in 2002, people with disabili- ties (PWDs) in Sierra Leone have faced severe constraints in exercising their rights to participate in democratic processes due to the absence of or poor implementation of enabling laws, mechanisms, and guidelines that promote and facilitate their equal participation in elections. This policy brief is based on findings from a study of the level of participa- tion of PWDs in Sierra Leone’s 2018 general elections. It concluded, among other things, that the level of PWD participation was higher compared with previous elections because of more effective awareness-raising and sensiti- zation activities targeting PWDs concerning the election process. This was reflected in PWDs’ familiarity with registration and voting processes, and the high turnout of about 72 percent in both the registration and voting pro- cesses. Additionally, PWDs’ engagement with political parties with respect to PWD-related issues in their manifestoes clearly validates this point. The high turnout of PWDs was highlighted in my interviews of National Electoral Commission (NEC) officials in all four study locations: Bo, Freetown, Ken- ema, and Makeni.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Disability, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone

134. "The Ambivalence of the Sacred": Religion, Conflict Resolution, and Peacebuilding in Northern Nigeria, 2000–2015

Author:
Jacinta Chimaka Nwaka
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Nigeria is one of a few African countries where religion has largely been associated with conflict. The dominance of the two major Abrahamic reli- gions—Islam and Christianity—on each side of the divide has made religion one of the more potent factors in the contention for political, economic, and identity spaces in the country. Although the use of religion for identity con- struction, power legitimization, and economic achievement characterized the colonial and immediate post-colonial period, it was not until the late 1970s that religion became highly disruptive, with the onset of religious vi- olence into the country.1 While these eruptions appeared to be restricted to the core northern cities, the re-democratization process associated with the post-Cold War period generated new tensions as politicians mobilized group identities for contested positions. Thus, other northern Nigerian cities that were hitherto known for peace became susceptible to violence. It was in the wake of this development that Plateau and Kaduna states became the epicenter of violent clashes of a religious nature. Various strategies have been adopted by both governmental and non-governmental bodies to ad- dress these conflicts. While some of them have been successful interven- tions, others have failed to stem the tide of conflict. Can religion, which is claimed to be a factor in these conflicts, become part of the solution? The current study seeks to identify the role(s) of faith-based actors in conflict resolution and peacebuilding in Plateau and Kaduna States of Northern Ni- geria between 2000 and 2015. The aim is to explain the conditions that have accounted for the success or failure of their intervention. Beginning with Johnston and Sampson, who identified religion as a missing dimension in statecraft, various authors have highlighted numerous ways through which religious actors can have a positive influence on the peace process.2 According to Johnston and Sampson and Appleby, religious actors are better positioned than politicians to reach out to local and regional ac- tors.3 This is because they are often believed to be in possession of moral and emotional qualifications as well as professional approaches that com- mand the respect and confidence of the parties to a conflict. In his study of religious actors in peace process, Weingardt believes that while all actors involved in conflict resolution and peacebuilding ideally have these qual- ities, they are more common with religious actors.4 He further explained the three dimensions of the confidence and trust which faith-based actors enjoy from the conflict parties. The existence of religious thinking in all cul- tures can be used to justify the call for peace and non-violence. Religious actors are often seen as those who go beyond mere resolution of conflict to address issues of morality, reconciliation, forgiveness, and responsibility, which underlie conflict resolution and are often perceived as those moti- vated by selfless interest. Though these may be at the level of perception rather than reality, Weingardt is of the opinion that such perceptions are informed by the respect generally accorded to religion and religious val- ues.5 The importance of legitimacy and leverage was equally underscored by Aroua and Bercovitch and Kadayici-Orellana, who assert that religious leaders with deep understanding of religious beliefs and ideals are better, placed to promote inter-religious dialogue by transferring codes from one value system to the other.6 In some cases, their influence over conflicting parties, or at least one of them, may become the basis for opening a com- munication channel. Other scholars further emphasize the role of religious organizations in pro- moting peace. According to Smock, they are very effective in delivering aid and development projects, which is considered an important aspect of the peace process.7 Their effectiveness, as observed by Bouta, Kadayici-Orel- lana and Abu-Nimer derives not only from the trust and confidence they command, but also because faith communities are less expensive, having with them, in most cases, a network of volunteers who may not just be committed but who are also ready to make enormous sacrifices informed by their religious beliefs and values.8 Although aid and development are at the pragmatic level, they help immeasurably in addressing the root causes of conflict.9 In addition to what religious actors can do, available literature points to several conflicts that have been mediated by faith-based actors. Among the outstanding cases are: the successful mediation in Mozam- bique by the Rome-based Community of Saint Egido, which helped to end the country’s civil war; and the Lome Peace Agreement of 1999 through the instrumentality of the Inter-Religious Council of Sierra Leone; (2001).10 There have also been cases where mediation by religious organizations in peace processes was not successful. For example, Saint Egido failed in its effort to resolve the conflicts in Algeria, Burundi, and the Democratic Re- public of Congo.11 Religious leaders in Liberia were unsuccessful in their attempts to intervene in the country’s first civil war.12 In the widespread pro- tests and riots that followed the cartoon published by a Danish newspaper, Jyllands-Posten, seen as depicting Prophet Mohammed as a terrorist in 2005, an attempt by the Catholic Relief Services (CRS) to initiate interreli- gious dialogue in Maiduguri also failed. Despite ever-growing interest in the field of faith-based actors in peace- building, one crucial question has remained unanswered: under which con- ditions can religion contribute to peace? Bercovitch has called attention to the need to go beyond the discussion of what success in conflict interven- tion means or may mean to understand the factors that could potentially contribute to such success. This view was re-echoed by Susan Hayward, who noted that “there is a pressing need for greater monitoring and eval- uation of religious peacebuilding work...to understand better which inter- ventions led by whom, and in which situation have the greater effect.”13 The need to establish the constructive role of religion in the peace process has become crucial in the present era, when those involved in the negotiation and peacebuilding processes continue to marginalize religious actors, often considering them to have no constructive role.14 This study is located within this existing scholarship. It uses data from field-based primary sources in qualitative research - in-depth interview (IDI), Focused Group Discussion (FGD), official documents and extant secondary source materials, to explore the conditions that explain the successful or failed interventions of faith- based actors in three outstanding conflicts in Plateau and Kaduna States namely: the Jos and Yelwa conflicts in Plateau State and the Kaduna conflict in Kaduna State between 2000 and 2015.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Nigeria and Africa

135. The Kenya-Somalia Maritime Border Dispute: An Unnecessary Diplomatic Row?

Author:
Kizito Sabala
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This briefing note examines the implications of the maritime border dispute between Kenya and Somalia following claims that Somalia has auctioned the oil and gas fields in the disputed territory, which are currently the subject of an International Court of Justice (ICJ) case at The Hague.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Somalia

136. Emerging Political Reforms and the Future of Ethiopian Federalism: Policy Options for Stability, Peace, and Development

Author:
Asnake Kefale
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This policy brief explores the prospects of deploying federalism as an instrument of peacebuilding in the context of emerging political reforms in Ethiopia. The ap- pointment of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in April 2018 by the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) marks a watershed moment in Ethiopia’s political history. The agenda of political reform adopted by EPRDF was largely due to two interrelated factors. First, the need to overcome the ap- parent fissures and constant power struggles within the party, especially since the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in 2012. Second, as a response to the youth-led mass anti-government protests which started in 2015, primarily in the two most populous regions of the country, Oromia and Amhara. While the ongoing reforms are generating some optimism, there are also wor- risome developments in parts of the country. More than 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes. The causes of their displacement are inter- ethnic tensions and identity-based communal conflicts over issues such as the ownership of natural resources linked to people’s livelihoods and the location of territorial borders. Those hit hardest by internal displacement are communities living in Gedeo and West Guji in southern Ethiopia and in the border areas of the Oromia and Somali regions. There are also tensions between the Amhara and Tigray regions over the identity of Wolqait and Raya communities. Similarly, the Sidama ethnic group’s demand for regional status in southern Ethiopia has cre- ated tension in the area. Moreover, there are reports of a breakdown of law and order in parts of the Amhara and Oromia regions. A key issue in Ethiopia’s political reform is the future of federalism, in particu- lar, the strong emphasis placed on ethnicity and whether it will continue to be relevant. On the one hand, there are political forces (centrists) that see ethnic federalism as a root cause of the current crisis, while others contend that theproblems are due to non-adherence to the principles of true federalism. However, it is important to note that the federal system is crucial to Ethiopia’s stability, peace, and develop- ment. With the opening of political space, the future direc- tion of Ethiopian federalism is being hotly contested. There are political forces that aspire to remove the ethnic element from the federal system or change the system altogether from ethnic to geographic federalism. Such a course of ac- tion is fraught with danger. The reactions to the removal of the federal status of Eritrea in 1960 and the autonomy of South Sudan in 1983 demonstrate the inadvisability of re- versing regional or ethnic autonomy. In both countries, the rolling back of autonomous arrangements by central au- thorities was a key factor in the long-running conflicts that culminated in the secession of Eritrea and South Sudan, re- spectively. The government of Ethiopia (GoE) should, there- fore, consider the following policy recommendations.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Political stability, Peace, and Federalism
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

137. The Challenges of Reintegration in Post-Conflict Peacebuilding: The Case of Nigeria’s Niger Delta

Author:
Oluwatoyin Oluwaniyi
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War shifted the focus from international wars between states to internal wars with immense consequences for unarmed civilians, such as occurred in the African countries of Angola, Burundi, Central Afri- can Republic (CAR), Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Liberia, So- malia, and Sudan, to mention a few.1 The nature of these wars makes these countries susceptible to further wars. To avoid such conflict traps, peace- building measures such as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) have been introduced to pave the way for an easier transition from conflict to peace, by minimizing risks from ex-combatants as possible spoil- ers and, restoring hope and security to victims of conflict while developing their communities.2 Evidence from countries that have utilized DDR, such as Angola, DRC, So- malia, and Liberia, suggests that while disarmament and demobilization may be essential, reintegration remains the most critical component of post-conflict peace and security.3 Debate continues over the notion that while disarmament and demobilization entail short-term security opera- tions, they do not by themselves bring sustainable benefits; reintegration focuses on extensive long-term development efforts that are critical to avoiding the conflict trap and sustaining peace in the long run. Short-term security does not bring about sustainable benefits unless it is coordinated with long-term community development strategies. Reintegration address- es the economic and social transformation of both ex-combatants and the overall communities they are joining, yet the full implementation of this pro- cess is generally ignored in DDR programs in post-conflict countries. This paper focuses on the extent of implementation of the reintegration phase in the Niger Delta region’s post-conflict (usually called post-amnesty) period and its impact on peace, security, and development in the region. The Nigerian federal government embraced the post-amnesty DDR concept in June 2009 to set the pace for gradual resolution of the violence that had embroiled the region for almost a decade. During the execution of the disar- mament and demobilization phases, the Niger Delta region recorded initial progress in peace and security demonstrated by an increase in oil produc- tion from an estimated 700 barrels per day (bpd) to an estimated 2,500 bpd in early 2010. However, the implementation of the reintegration phase has raised several questions due to the region’s relapse into violence and crime. There is, therefore, a need to investigate the factors working against suc- cessful implementation of the reintegration process. A critical analysis of the process will enhance the understanding of schol- ars and policymakers alike on what constitutes sustainable reintegration and at the same time, how it may be achieved in post-conflict societies. The focus on reintegration is meant to facilitate a specific consideration of its importance as the point of intersection between short- and long-term peacebuilding processes.
Topic:
Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

138. What to Make of the Government’s Decision not to Extend its Mission in Mali

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
News stories about the Ogossagou massacre that killed more than 161 people, the death of Malian soldiers at the hands of jihadi terrorists, as well as the resignation of the Malian Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga hardly paint a picture of progress towards inter-communal peace in that country. In fact, an analysis of MINUSMA (the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali) attributed the continued instability to the low ranking of ‘protection of civilians’ on the list of priorities for that mission. In other words, it assessed that the situation was so dire that it required substantial changes to the framework of the operation for tangible improvement to materialize. Yet despite UN overtures and the “bad optics” of leaving before replacements have arrived, the Canadian government has been adamant about its objections to extending the mission in the West African country beyond July, citing its previously-set duration for the mission of one year. With less than three months remaining till the end of Operation PRESENCE, Canada’s contribution of peacekeeping efforts under MINUSMA, it is worth reflecting on the significance of this endeavour and attempting to understand the limitations that shaped it and have come to define it. The announcement of the mission came on the back of the Liberals’ success in the 2015 federal election which was preceded by a campaign that prominently featured the idea of returning Canada to its place as a country heavily involved in peacekeeping. Unfortunately, though, exclusive involvement in this peacekeeping mission falls massively short of campaign promises to commit up to 600 troops to such missions. Moreover, many experts have voiced their concerns about lack of progress in Mali and the need for a stronger commitment in terms of resources, but their pleas have fallen on deaf ears. Does that reflect a downgrading of peacekeeping as an international security priority for this government? There is evidence that suggests this is the case. A brief look at the Department of National Defence spending plans for 2019-2020 is sufficient to reveal the movement of funding to other operations. The most prominent of such operations are Operation LIMPID, REASSURANCE, and FOUNDATION. Operation LIMPID refers to CAF efforts to counter threats to the country sovereignty in a variety of realms including land, maritime, space and cyber domains; operation REASSURANCE deals with shoring up NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe to assure these countries of its support, while operation FOUNDATION deals with counter-terrorism efforts in the Middle East, North Africa, and South West Asia. So what accounts for this shift?
Topic:
United Nations, Military Strategy, Governance, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

139. Climate Security in the Sahel and the Mediterranean: Local and Regional Responses

Author:
A. Bassou, A. Chielewska, and X. Ruiz-Campillo
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Mediterranean connects Europe to Africa. The Mediterranean basin is thus an area of ​​interaction between the two continents. However, there is a perception that limits the Mediterranean basin to its strictest geographical sense, that is to say the countries of southern Europe and those of North Africa, which border the Mediterranean. This traditional conception ignores the geopolitical context, which broadens the vision of the Mediterranean basin by including all the spaces that impact it. Some human phenomena, such as migration, show that Mediterranean relations do not only concern the states bordering this sea, but a much larger area including the whole European Union, on the one hand, and North African, Sahelian and Sub-Saharan countries, on the other hand. The present study takes into account the broader conception of the Mediterranean. In this sense, it not only deals with the effects of climate change on the countries bordering the Mediterranean, but extends its analysis to the whole European Union (EU), to the Maghreb and especially to the Sahel. Due to its geography, climate, demography, proliferation of conflicts or its precarious level of industrialization, the Sahel region is the most threatened in the world by climate change. Any deterioration of the situation in the Sahel countries undoubtedly has repercussions on Europe and its relations with Africa. The four authors of the study examine the impact of climate change on the stability of the Sahel and the effects that the instability of this region could have on the Mediterranean space. The authors question the potential links between climate change and security. They outline the positions and frameworks of European actions as well as the different initiatives taken by EU institutions. Finally, they put forward some recommendations on how to effectively address this phenomenon.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Political stability, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sahel, and Mediterranean

140. Cooperation with Religious Institutions as a European Policy Tool

Author:
Yasemin El-Menouar, Sergio Altuna, Patrycja Sasnai, and Georges Fahmi
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
For at least three decades now religion has been re-entering the public sphere and politics in Europe and globally. Its re-emergence, however, bears little resemblance to the past when the religion-state coupling was unequivocal. Today, in Europe, the values of freedom of religion and belief, free expression and non-discrimination take precedence over any single religion’s domination – at least that is the prevalent aspiration. In the European neighbourhood, major social and political phenomena have acquired an increasingly religious angle: radicalisation – in the words of Olivier Roy – is becoming Islamised, intra and interstate conflicts have a sectarian character, and governments either want to increase their control over religion or the breakdown of local governance is making religious actors more legitimate representatives than the central government. Within EU member states, religion is resurfacing alongside two simultaneous trends: on the one hand, individualised, atomised urban life that requires more spirituality and a reference point to the realities of modernity and diversity; and, on the other, social polarisation around perceptions of secularisation and religions, particularly Islam. This Joint Policy Study takes an institutionalist view of state-religion relations, although religious institutions are defined in a broad sense and encompass both official and unofficial religion. This leaves the field outside of the institutionalised religion-state relations either relatively small or down to individual expressions of religiosity. Institutionalism, so understood, is a view that policy is carried out through and with institutions. This can vary in different aspects: dependence (state-dependent, statecontrolled, independent of states), size, homogeneity, thematic focus, accountability, credibility, and so on. The chapters in the study aim to provide both more generalised overviews and case studies to cover all levels of state-religion relations in Europe and MENA: relations between state and religious institutions in Europe (chapter 1); relations between state and religious institutions in the Maghreb (Tunisia and Morocco in chapter 3); relations between institutions of different religions (the Vatican and al-Azhar in chapter 4); and the role of Muslim religious institutions in advancing a state policy in an EU member state (Germany in chapter 2).
Topic:
Religion, Institutionalism, Secularism, and Theocracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Germany, Morocco, Tunisia, and Vatican city