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782. How to evaluate China’s economy
- Author:
- Derek Scissors
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Official Chinese economic data are often the only game in town, but they are untrustworthy. Sometimes they prove inaccurate; during downturns they are falsified outright. Finding inconsistency in official statistics demonstrates the problem but offers no solution, since it is rarely clear which series is better. Examining 15 major indicators for importance and reliability shows that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita should be deemphasized. To illustrate, China’s GDP per capita is twice as high as official per capita disposable income. The latter can be spent; the former is an accounting result. Another conclusion: Arguably the most valuable indicators are the worst measured. Debt is reasonably estimated at present, but factor productivity and human capital are vital to medium-term performance and receive far too little attention.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Monetary Policy, GDP, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Beijing
783. Chinese investment: State-owned enterprises stop globalizing, for the moment
- Author:
- Derek Scissors
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Chinese investment around the world fell sharply in 2018. The decline was most evident later in the year and among state-owned enterprises. These companies also engaged in fewer power construction projects. The number of countries in the Belt and Road Initiative keeps expanding, but activity levels per country are flat. One explanation for weakness in various Chinese efforts to “Go Out” is caution in drawing down foreign exchange reserves. The US has restricted Chinese investment, but it was already small in size in 2018. Serious problems remain—for example, theft and coercive transfer of technology. Firms violating American law should face sanctions, not just investment bans.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Foreign Direct Investment, Sanctions, Business, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
784. The China dream: America’s, China’s, and the resulting competition
- Author:
- Gary J. Schmitt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Although changes in American and Chinese leadership have brought current tensions between the two nations to the fore, the underlying reasons for the tensions are not tied to either President Donald Trump or President Xi Jinping coming into office. Rather, the strategic competition between the US and China is principally the product of regime-driven differences over both what constitutes their national interests and what their respective visions were for the character of China’s rise. The administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy is a relatively coherent response to the challenge China poses. But questions remain about the administration’s ability to resource it sufficiently and carry it out steadily given President Trump’s own idiosyncratic America First policy views.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
785. China’s demographic outlook to 2040 and its implications: An overview
- Author:
- Nicholas Eberstadt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- We already have a fairly reliable picture of China’s population profile for the year 2040 because the overwhelming majority of people who will be living in China in 2040 are already alive and living there today. China’s population is on track to peak in the coming decade and to decline at an accelerating tempo thereafter. China is set to experience an extraordinarily rapid surge of population aging, with especially explosive population growth for the 65-plus group, even as its working-age population progressively shrinks. These trends can only make for serious economic headwinds, presaging the end of China’s era of “heroic economic growth.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Demographics, Political Economy, and Population
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
786. Rent-seeking behavior in US international food aid programs
- Author:
- Stephanie Mercier
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- This study outlines the evolution and history of US food aid programs including the Food for Peace program and provisions in recent farm bills. Early in their existence, these programs provided rents to interest groups through cargo preference requirements and purchasing requirements for in-kind aid. These requirements, along with monetization, shift program dollars toward commodity producers, shipping companies, and nongovernmental organizations in the United States, raising program costs. The result is that these programs are not efficiently achieving their goals of increasing US soft power and alleviating global hunger.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Hunger, Mercantile Policy, and Rent
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
787. The Gulf’s eastward turn: The logic of Gulf-China economic ties
- Author:
- Karen E. Young
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Arab Gulf states are expanding their political and economic ties with China as a bridge strategy to create a next-generation energy market in traditional oil and gas products, as well as petrochemical production and future market access in expected areas of consumer growth. China is also a competitor in some areas where Arab Gulf states are investing in infrastructure, ports, and political outreach to secure new security partnerships, particularly in the Horn of Africa. China and the Arab Gulf states share a model and vision of economic development that is state centered and profitable to state-owned enterprises and financial institutions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Asia, and Gulf Cooperation Council
788. A golden opportunity for a US-Taiwan free trade agreement
- Author:
- Dan Blumenthal and Michael Mazza
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The United States and Taiwan can create a free trade agreement (FTA) that serves the interests of both sides. Taiwan should seek to set the gold standard in economic openness, as well as in the legal, regulatory, and standards frameworks that will govern emerging technologies and industries such as 5G, the internet of things (IOT), artificial intelligence (AI), and the future industries to be built upon them. In pursuit of the United States’ vision for a “free and open” Indo-Pacific, it would be wise for the US to enlist in its effort countries that are, themselves, already free and open. Taiwan should be considered a crucial partner in the Trump administration’s strategy. This monograph serves to provide a framework for a US-Taiwan free trade agreement (FTA), outlining areas of concern for the United States, in addition to areas that provide opportunities for closer bilateral cooperation. Importantly, such cooperation could give greater impetus for free trade negotiations, advance the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, and bolster the United States’ National Security Strategy. In order to deepen economic ties and to, at the same time, advance the Indo-Pacific strategy, the United States should prioritize a free trade agreement (FTA) with Taiwan. The US has not completed or ratified a free trade agreement since the U.S.-Korea deal. It is now negotiating with Japan and the Philippines. But, as this paper will show, an FTA with Taiwan would have substantial strategic benefits and would, moreover, be far easier to conclude than other agreements under discussion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Free Trade, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
789. The US-China economic relationship: A comprehensive approach
- Author:
- Neena Shenai and Joshua P. Meltzer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The US–China economic relationship has reached a critical juncture. Over the past year, the US has imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports and China has retaliated, raising tariffs on a similar amount of US exports. At the G-20 leaders’ summit in November 2018, Presidents Trump and Xi agreed to resolve the trade dispute within 90 days—by March 1, 2019, though this deadline has been recently extended. The US concerns that underpin these bilateral trade tensions stem from specific practices endemic to China’s economic model that systematically tilt the playing field in favor of Chinese companies domestically and globally. Progress on specific trade issues will require China to comply with its World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments and to make certain reforms that will likely touch on areas of state control over the economy. In addition, new trade rules are needed to address China’s economic practices not covered by its WTO commitments, including in areas such as state-owned enterprises (SOEs), certain subsidies, and digital trade. These issues also come at a time of increasing US concern over the national security risks China presents, particularly with respect to technology access. All of these matters underscore the complexity of US-China bilateral negotiations as well as the stakes at play. Resolving US-China differences in a meaningful way will take time. This policy brief assesses the state of the US-China trade relationship by first looking at the economic impact on the US The policy brief then looks at why the Chinese economic model is so concerning. Despite the challenges the US has had at the WTO, the policy brief argues that the WTO should be central to resolving US-China trade tensions. We outline a multi-prong strategy, including bilateral, multilateral, and unilateral actions as well as working with allies that together would constitute positive next steps for this critical economic relationship. In taking this multifaceted approach, the US needs to stay true to its values and not accept short-term gains or “fig leaf” deals. In particular, creating a managed trade relationship with China would not be a constructive outcome. Instead, the US should work with China to agree on long term solutions. The resulting deal should address the real issues at hand in a free market manner and strengthen the multilateral global trading system and rule of law that the US has championed in the post-World War II era.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Globalization, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
790. Tourism Across Borders in Israel/Palestine: Using Tourism as a Tool for Social and Political Change
- Author:
- Anne Bauer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
- Abstract:
- This research was conducted as part of IPCRI's project "Tourism Brings Us Closer", funded by the Swiss Embassy, and examines the ways in which tourism can be used as a tool for social and political change. The research is based on focused group discussions with actors in the tourism industry that were conducted within the scope of the project. Thereby, the research analyses the challenges and opportunities identified by people working in the field. The research also offers a set of recommendations that can inform future engagements.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation and Tourism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine