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2271. Selling the Future in DC. Marketing Stability for International Security

Author:
Ariel Colonomos
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
What kind of future worlds do experts of international security envision? This paper studies the role of experts in DC's think tanks, a relatively small world socially and culturally highly homogeneous. It underlines the characteristics of this epistemic community that influence the way its analysts make claims about the future for security. The DC's marketplace of the future lacks diversity. The paradigms analysts use when they study international politics are very similar. Moreover, the range of issues they focus on is also relatively narrow. The paper highlights three main features of the relation between those who make claims about the future of security and those to whom these claims are addressed (mainly policymakers). First, it shows that, for epistemic but also for political reasons, the future imagined in think tanks is relatively stable and linear. This future also contributes to the continuity of political decisions. Second, the paper shows that think tanks are also "victims of groupthink", especially when they make claims about the future. Third, it underlines a paradox: scenarios and predictions create surprises. Claims about the future have a strong tunneling effect. They reinforce preexisting beliefs, create focal points, and operate as blinders when, inevitably, the future breaks away from its linear path.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, International Security, and State
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, Washington, and D.C.

2272. Can Latin American Oil Companies Free Themselves from the Legacy of Nationalization? (Les compagnies pétrolières latino-américaines peuvent-elles s'affranchir de l'héritage de la nationalisation ?)

Author:
Isabelle Rousseau
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Latin America's national oil companies, created at various times during the twentieth century, have each evolved in a different way. The two main companies – Petroleos de Mexico (Pemex) and Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) – provide excellent illustrations of the rich diversity of organizational and industrial development. Many factors – such as the importance of earth quakes – explain the diversity. Nevertheless, the role of governments during the period of nationalizations is key. It was then that the relationships between the owners of natural resources, public operators, regulators, the finance ministries, and international operators were defined. This process shaped the companies' institutional structures (path dependency) and set the parameters for future entrepreneurial dynamism. The path by which each of these enterprises developed continues to affect their culture as evidenced by the recent reforms which attempted to restructure Pemex and PDVSA.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Political Economy, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and Mexico

2273. The Perception of Turkey in the Middle East 2012

Author:
Mensur Akgün and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The report entails the findings of the fourth annual survey conducted by TESEV Foreign Policy Programme in collaboration with KA Research between August 3- 28, 2012. As in previous years, the public opinion survey reveals interesting insights into the recent Middle Eastern viewpoints, perceptions and expectations. 2800 Respondents from 16 countries of the region reflect on Turkey’s role and regional challenges in the light of current happenings.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Kuwait, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Tunisia, Oman, and UAE

2274. BRICS: The new Syndicate

Author:
Gateway House
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
This bi-annual report includes features written exclusively (unless mentioned otherwise) for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations by various contributors, and Gateway House staff, from January-July 2012.
Topic:
Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Brazil

2275. Emerging Scholars

Author:
Melissa Conley Tyler
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) was established in 1924 to promote public understanding and interest in international affairs. The AIIA works actively to engage young people in its work including through young professionals’ networks, careers fairs, schools events, internships, mentoring and the Young Diplomats Program
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Australia

2276. Turkey’s Mediation and Friends of Mediation Initiative

Author:
Bülent Aras
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Abstract:
This brief critically examines a new area of activism in Turkey’s foreign policy agenda: Turkey’s rise as a mediator in regional and international crises zones. It contextualizes Turkey’s reliance on a multitude of actors to support its mediation initiatives, most notably its vibrant civil society and NGOs, as a successful case of total performance, a principle forming Turkey’s new foreign policy doctrine. The brief then outlines the broad frameworks and characteristics of Turkey’s approach to mediation, as laid out by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmet Davutoğlu. The brief takes a closer look at the case of Turkey’s involvement in the attempt to seek resolution in the Afghanistan conflict and it illustrates a good example of Turkey’s new style in mediation. The brief concludes with a discussion of the Friends of Mediation Initiative, launched under the UN framework through joint Turkish-Finnish initiative.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

2277. Maritime Security East of Suez Sustaining the U.S. Role as the Key Policeman in Times of Change

Author:
Geoffrey Kemp
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the National Interest
Abstract:
At the height of America’s postwar power, in the 1960s and 1970s, the U.S. Seventh Fleet was able to sustain an unchallenged presence “East of Suez” to embrace the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean, the Indonesian Straits, and the South and East China Seas as well as the Western Pacific. Today the U.S. remains the dominant maritime power in this vast area, especially in the region to the west of the Straits of Malacca. However, in the region closer to China, the growing power projection and sea denial capabilities of China’s military raises questions about the future ability of the United States to operate with immunity in an area China increasingly believes is part of its own patrimony. Although the United States has many allies in the region, especially Singapore, Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and increasingly Vietnam, the trends in military spending and force deployments suggest the U.S. will have to increasingly rely on cooperation with allies if there is to be a balance against China’s maritime aspirations. The downside of this is that the U.S. must avoid being drawn into the many bilateral disputes between China and its neighbors and must try to play a conciliatory role rather than taking sides. This will inevitably mean that the U.S. will have to play a different role from the one it became accustomed to during its days as the undisputed hegemon. The U.S. will still remain the key policeman in the Indian Ocean and Gulf regions, but will have to adapt to a different role in parts of the Western Pacific and southeast Asian waters.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2278. Extended Deterrence and Security in East Asia.

Author:
Paul Saunders
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the National Interest
Abstract:
Following the North Korean sinking of the South Korean frigate Cheonan, and North Korea’s subsequent shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, the Center for the National Interest proposed a U.S.-Japan-South Korea dialogue on extended deterrence in East Asia to assess whether and how the three countries could work together to strengthen stability in a region of vital importance to America’s security and prosperity—and, of course, to the security and prosperity of its close allies. Shortly before the project began, the collision of a Chinese fishing vessel with a Japanese coast guard ship near the Senkaku Islands led to a significant political confrontation between Tokyo and Beijing
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2279. Africa Capacity Indicators 2012: Capacity Development for Agricultural Transformation and Food Security

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
In Africa, the challenges impacting on the agricultural sector growth are multi-faceted. They include but are not limited to, an over-dependence on rainfall, weak capacity to respond to shocks, political governance, choice of crops, changing needs and changing food habits due to globalization, land degradation, land renting and sale to foreign companies. All of these contribute to an unnecessary level of food insecurity. The aforementioned are exacerbated by the low level of commitment to the sector in terms of policy and physical and human investment, especially in Agricultural Research, Extension and Education. This is coupled with the ineffectiveness and inefficiency in the supply side of the Agricultural Knowledge and Information System (AKIS) – institutional and process – and the absence of an organized and structured demand side of AKIS – the farmers.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Africa

2280. The War on Drugs and HIV/AIDS: How the Criminalization of Drug Use Fuels the Global Pandemic

Author:
Global Commission On Drug Policy
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Commission On Drug Policy
Abstract:
The global “war on drugs” is driving the HIV/AIDS pandemic among people who use drugs, although research has shown that repressive law enforcement forces users away from public health services and into hidden environments where HIV risk becomes markedly elevated. An assessments of the impacts concluded that many nations and international organizations tasked with reducing the drug problem have actually contributed to a worsening of community health and safety. The time for leadership is now.
Topic:
HIV/AIDS, Health, War on Drugs, and Drugs
Political Geography:
Global Focus