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2261. A Test for Turkey’s Foreign Policy: The Syria Crisis

Author:
Doğan Ertuğrul
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
“A Test for Turkey’s Foreign Policy: The Syria Crisis “is written by the Star Newspaper columnist Doğan Ertuğrul. Ertuğrul, who has been working on Iran, northern Iraq and the Kurdish issue for over 10 years, has produced numerous research papers and articles concerning the political system in Iran, Iranian Kurds and other minorities as well as political groups in northern Iraq. The article provides an in-depth analysis of the situation in Syria since March 2011 and elaborates on Turkish and Iranian policies towards Syria. It further examines the competition between Tehran and Ankara along with the perception of Turkey in the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

2262. ‘Leaving the mountain’: How may the PKK lay down arms? Freeing the Kurdish Question from violence

Author:
Cengiz Çandar
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The democratic norms, introduced with globalization and embodied in the EU membership criteria, served as a leverage for Turkey like in many other countries. They enabled the society to gain a new insight in its own history and state and as a result the problems that had often been overlooked and swept under the carpet were inevitably included in the domain of politics. The issue, which is often referred to as the ‘Kurdish Question’ yet essentially expresses the refusal by the state to meet the existential and cultural demands of Turkish citizens with Kurdish identity, constitutes the biggest obstacle to democratization in terms of its scope and historical background. Accordingly, today, there is a widespread belief that democracy cannot become entrenched in society unless the ‘Kurdish Question’ is resolved. The TESEV Democratization Program has systematically addressed the ‘Kurdish Question’ in the recent years and brought it to the public attention. Three reports were prepared as a result of an extensive field work, where we attempted to clarify the demands of the politically diverse Kurdish people, the possible constitutional and legal responses to these demands and how these demands are perceived by other segments of the society. The collision of this process with the widening of the domain of politics in Turkey has led to the idea of seeking for ‘the resolution’ within the framework of a new constitution. On the other hand, there is a growing understanding that ‘the resolution’ has some aspects that go beyond the legal context. For establishing a future based on trust requires conclusively burying the past in the pages of history while also ensuring its visibility, which in turn implies a confrontation among different identities. Therefore, the resolution of the ‘Kurdish Question’ needs a democratic method and approach, whereby parties are able to develop an attitude that addresses the whole society and show consent to a policy that does not encumber the future. Yet, the reciprocal past and present violence between the state and the PKK makes it necessary to create a transparent medium for dialogue to realize potential solutions, and therefore to embark upon a journey towards a solution with no way back. This means ensuring that all members of the PKK, including Öcalan, gradually perceive themselves as a part of the political process. This period, in which we are on the verge of creating the new constitution and concurrently solving the ‘Kurdish Question’, is a vital one. This TESEV report analyses what type of a political infrastructure is needed to build a favorable environment for such a dialogue. The study conducted by Cengiz Çandar, one of the most competent observers of the issue, reveals how the building blocks for resolution can be placed in a realistic way and in consideration of the plurality within both sides. Our expectation is that this groundwork presented here will offer a meaningful contribution and roadmap both for the settlement of the ‘Kurdish Question’ and for the democratization process of Turkey …
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Non State Actors, Negotiation, Violence, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

2263. The Perception of Turkey in the Middle East 2011

Author:
Mensur Akgün and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This report contains the findings of TESEV Foreign Policy Programme’s third survey of the perception of Turkey in the Middle East. Conducted by KA Research in 16 countries between October 19th and December 15th, the survey questioned 2323 people by telephone or face to face. As in previous years, the survey contains striking results. Despite falls in some countries, Syria and Iran being the most significant, the general perception of Turkey in the region has not changed fundamentally. In fact of the countries that regional opinion was sought, Turkey has surpassed even Saudi Arabia into first place with 78% of the region having a favourable opinion of it. The conclusions are similar to those in previous years. However, there are some results relating to the ‘Arab Spring’ that should be noted here.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Gulf Nations

2264. Tableau de bord des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie 2012 (Volume 2 : Eurasie)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Anne De Tinguy, Jacques Sapir, Julien Vercueil, Hélène Clément-Pitiot, Matthieu Combe, Vitaly Denysyuk, and Raphaël Jozan
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia Dashboard, 2012.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Finance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Eastern Europe, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Central Europe, and Belarus

2265. Tableau de bord des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie 2012 (Volume 1 : Europe centrale et orientale)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Jacques Rupnik, Céline Bayou, Edith Lhomel, and Catherine Samary
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
L’Europe centrale et orientale ne se porte globalement pas aussi mal qu’on l’écrit parfois et, d’une certaine manière, nettement mieux que l’Europe occidentale et que la zone euro en particulier. Avant la crise déjà, elle se singularisait par une croissance élevée, qui atteignait 4 % par an en 2008 pour les dix nouveaux membres de l’Union européenne (UE), contre 0,5 % pour les quinze pays de la zone euro. Son taux de chômage était inférieur d’environ 6,5 % à celui constaté dans ladite zone. En outre, dûment chapitrée par les institutions financières internationales, elle pouvait faire état d’une discipline exemplaire en matière de finances publiques, avec une dette qui ne dépassait pas 30 % du PIB pour la grande majorité des seize pays étudiés ici (voir les tableaux synthétiques à la fin de ce chapitre) et était très inférieure à ce niveau pour plusieurs d’entre eux. Quant au déficit des finances publiques, calculé à partir de la moyenne des seize pays, il était inférieur à 3 % du PIB. A tout cela s’ajoute la bonne tenue d’ensemble d’un jeune système bancaire qui, pourtant dépendant de maisons mères occidentales ayant subi le choc de la crise, ne s’est pas effondré malgré les sinistres avertissements des Cassandres : les pays baltes ont bénéficié de liens très forts avec les riches systèmes bancaires de l’Europe du Nord, les pays de l’Europe centrale (à l’exception de la Slovénie) ont su constituer au cours de la transition des banques saines, et les établissements de l’Europe du Sud-Est ont été, au moins momentanément, sauvés par l’action conjuguée des institutions financières internationales dans le cadre des deux « Initiatives de Vienne ».
Topic:
Markets, Political Economy, Politics, Governance, Finance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, Albania, Croatia, Latvia, Montenegro, Czech Republic, Central Europe, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

2266. Amérique latine. Political Outlook 2012

Author:
Mélanie Albaret, Hélène Combes, Olivier Compagnon, Olivier Dabène, Lorenza Belinda Fontana, Marie-Laure Geoffray, Charles-André Goulet, Nordin Lazreg, Kevin Parthenay, Gustavo Pastor, Thomas Posado, Darío Rodriguez, Camila Minerva Rodriguez Tavárez, and Jérôme Sgard
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Le Political Outlook 2012 de l’Amérique latine est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site internet www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clefs de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des transformations profondes. Des informations complémentaires à cette publication sont disponibles sur le site.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Markets, Political Economy, Politics, History, Finance, Regional Integration, and Memory
Political Geography:
South America, Cuba, Latin America, Bolivia, and El Salvador

2267. Le rêve arabe de la Turquie brisé par la crise syrienne (The Syrian Crisis Shatters Turkey’s Arab Dream)

Author:
Bayram Balci
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
For ideological and practical reasons the AKP government, in power since November 2002, has engaged in a policy of progressive integration of Turkey into the Muslim, and more particularly, the Arab world. This policy has been facilitated by the country’s booming economy and assertive foreign policy. Turkey, whose government embraced a political ideology similar to those, brought to power by the Arab Spring, benefitted greatly from the ideological effects of the Arab Spring. These benefits were enhanced by the fact that the political ideology of those brought to power by the « Arab Spring » was similar to that of the AKP. Turkey appeared to be becoming a model for the Arab world. However, the crisis in Syria, a country central to Turkey’s Arab policy, and the inability of the Turkish government to remain neutral has put an end to Turkey’s Arab dream. Turkish engagement in the Syrian crisis has caused deterioration in Turkey’s relations with a number of its neighbors and forced it to renew ties with its traditional western allies from whom it had hoped to distance itself in order to be an independent regional and international player.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, Arab Spring, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

2268. La relation Pakistan – Etats-Unis : un patron et son client au bord de la rupture ? (The Pakistan-US relations : A relationship on the brink ?)

Author:
Christophe Jaffrelot
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
During the Cold War the US-Pakistan relationship was one in which the US considered Pakistan as a necessary part of its effort to contain communism in Asia while Pakistan considered its relationship with the US as strengthening its position vis a vis India. The high point in this relationship was during the Soviet-Afghan war. The US tried to renew this relationship after 9/11, although when Obama replaced GW Bush he stated his intention to move US-Pakistani relations off the security agenda which the Pentagone and the Pakistani army considered a priority. However, Obama rain into resistance from the Pakistani army and from the national security establishment in Washington- as can be seen from the security-oriented distribution of US aid. But not even in the area of security have the two nations been able truly to collaborate. To begin with, the strengthening of US-India relations angered Pakistan. Then Islamabad protected the Taliban in its fight with NATO. Finally, Obama violated Pakistani sovereignty (the Drone strikes in the tribal belt and the Ben Laden raid). These conflicting interest, however, do not necessary means the end of the relationship.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Peacekeeping, and State
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

2269. La fabrique politique d’une frontière européenne en Méditerranée. Le « jeu du mistigri » entre les Etats et l’Union (The political fabric of a European frontier in the Mediterranean: The “jeu du mistigri” between the States and the European Union )

Author:
Evelyne Ritaine
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
The political determination of the Mediterranean border of the European Union seen from the perspective of the Southern European countries (Spain, Italy, Greece, Malta) illustrates the symbolic and political importance for these nations of maintaining control of the border. It has a significant impact on the types of controls that are enacted and the interplay between national and European decisions. Placing this question on the agenda brings to light a Mediterranean perspective regarding the exterior borders of the European Union that is largely determined by the conditions of integration of the different countries into the Schengen area. This new border regime is the result of complex political games and is seen as a security issue. The actual set of controls seems to be less planned and legal-rational than simply erratic and the result of tensions between internal tactics, nation state strategies and attempts at bringing within the ring of EU.
Topic:
Security, Migration, European Union, Regulation, Borders, and State
Political Geography:
Greece, Balkans, Spain, North Africa, Italy, Western Europe, Mediterranean, European Union, and Malta

2270. The Politics of Employment Policy Reform in the Gulf States (Les enjeux des réformes des politiques de l’emploi dans les monarchies du Golfe)

Author:
Laurence Louer
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
During the first decade of the 21st century the Gulf States undertook reforms of their social policies based on the generous redistribution of hydrocarbon profits. One of the elements of the redistribution was to guarantee of employment. Beginning in the 1990s rising unemployment indicated that the traditional employment policies were ineffective, generating social tensions as evidenced in the "Arab spring". The goal of the reforms is to move nationals into salaried jobs in the private sector, currently held largely by foreign workers. The change is strongly opposed by business executives and local entrepreneurs. Having become accustomed to inexpensive foreign workers they object to the increased costs entailed by the reforms. The royal families are thus obliged to negotiate between the interests of the private sector, often aligned with their own, and the dissatisfaction of the young, the group most impacted by unemployment and the key players in the protests that erupted in 2011 in Bahrain, Saudi-Arabia and Oman.
Topic:
Civil Society, Political Economy, Labor Issues, Arab Spring, Social Policy, Identities, State, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and United Arab Emirates