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1461. Expression of Socio-Political Zeitgeist in Tsarist Central Asia Printing

Author:
Ayaz Ahmad
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Abstract:
Orientalist approach to Central Asia especially Bukhara in our historical references present a romantic picture. This paper takes publications and printing as the indicator of intellectual maturity of the population and progressive zeitgeist in socio-political life. Analysis of historical events and facts reveal very little appetite of reading, almost universal ignorance and scarcity of written/printed books. The transformation of Central Asia took place after introduction of presses during the Tsarist control. With the arrival of printing, not only literacy increased but also the scope, number and range of topics expanded. As a result of printing/publication, the Jadidist ideology emerged and opposed the Qadimist status quo. Ultimately the Jadids prevailed. Therefore, the paper establishes that socio-political awakening and increase in printing/publication are linked. The paper recommends revisiting errors in the representation of Central Asia in our accounts of history.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Central Asia

1462. Strategic Significance of Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism Efforts Since 2014

Author:
Masood Ur Rehman Khattak
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Abstract:
Pakistan is successfully fighting against militants in its tribal areas. The threat in tribal areas has complicated security situation. Many terrorist groups allegedly operate in FATA, e.g. Hafiz Gul Buhadur Group, Molvi Nazir Group, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, and the Haqqani Network/ Afghan Taliban. The operation Zarb-I-Azb was a huge success. Pakistan’s armydestroyed many IED Factories, dismantled training Centers of the Suicide Bombers run by different terrorist groups and TTP Run Media Centers, exposed detention centers of militants and recovered foreign currency during Operation Zarb-i-Azb. For long term peace and stability in tribal areas, the government must carry out reconstruction and development programs on a large scale. There is a need to rebuild the capacity of the local population. Free education, rehabilitation and de-radicalization programs must be initiated to mainstream FATA youth.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Pakistan

1463. Making cities in conflict areas more resilient

Author:
Stephan Slingerland, Michel Rademaker, Karlijn Jans, Paul Verhagen, Aster Boeschoten, and Hannes Rõõs
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
By 2050, the UN estimates that 70 percent of the global population will be living in urban areas. Therefore, understanding and anticipating the ability of cities to manage and avoid the negative effects of climate-related changes and events – for example, hurricanes, overpopulation or supply chain disruption – is of utmost importance. This paper presents a conceptual framework to empirically quantify the climate resilience of cities to guide policymakers and community leaders in identifying challenges and opportunities. This paper tests the framework for data analysis in three cities in conflict-prone territories: Bamako (Mali), Maiduguri (Nigeria, Lake Chad Region) and Baghdad (Iraq). The analysis of the three cases suggested that city resilience in those areas cannot be developed without addressing the root causes of conflict in the entire area, as city-level resilience in conflict areas is closely related to the national level. On the basis of the research, some important observations and recommendations are made. When tested, the analysis revealed that the level of resilience did not necessarily correspond to economic development; it also found that conflict significantly lowered overall urban resilience to climate-related impacts. Large sprawling cities typically score poorly on maintaining resilience. While recovery and learning capacities are usually present in urban areas, very dense urban areas are particularly vulnerable to climate disasters. Cities in the global north have built learning capacity; they have made efforts to share best practices (e.g., the Rockefeller Foundation’s Resilience initiative, efforts by UN CPI and CRI, etc); and they have considered the lessons learned and implemented guidance. Data analysis can help to bolster the learning capacity of cities to cope with climate impacts that could increase tensions in large urban areas. However, there is a significant difference in the availability of data between the developed and the developing world. Data collection in developing countries (and cities) should be strengthened to better estimate climate-related security risks in urban areas and bolster their capacity to maintain key functions and recover and learn from climate events in their own and comparable cities.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, United Nations, Conflict, Cities, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1464. In the eye of the storm? (In)stability in Western Iraqi Kurdistan

Author:
Erwin van Veen and Hamzeh al-Shadeedi
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Iraqi Kurdistan has done well for itself in recent decades by carving out a largely autonomous region free of most governance and security interference from Baghdad. The alliance of convenience between the two pre-eminent Kurdish parties (PUK and KDP) effectively seized a number of opportunities to consolidate and expand Iraqi Kurdistan, such as the international no-fly zone (1991), the US intervention (2003), the crafting of a new constitution for Iraq (2005) and, arguably, even the rise of the Islamic State (IS) (2014). Yet, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) also faces a triple crisis. Politically, this includes the exclusive and increasingly repressive rule of the KDP and PUK in a context of mediocre governance, as well as strained relations between Erbil and Baghdad over the disputed territories. Economically, it includes a general downturn combined with serious financial disputes with Baghdad. Socially, it includes deteriorating popular satisfaction with the quality of rule and life in Kurdistan. In this report Erwin van Veen and al-Hamzeh al-Shadeedi analyse four factors that could drive future (in)stability in western Iraqi Kurdistan: 1) geopolitical tensions; 2) further clashes over the disputed territories; 3) growing dissatisfaction with the KDP and 4) protracted displacement. On balance, it does not consider the risk of immediate crisis or violence as being very high, but the report does note that many elements are in place that could easily trigger violent incidents with the potential of escalation. For each factor, the report proposes restraining factors, developments to monitor and trigger events. While international influence on the domestic politics of Iraqi Kurdistan is limited, coupling an offer of international (UN) mediation to facilitate resolution of the disputed territories with the development, or strengthening, of a dedicated fund that can rapidly initiate the reconstruction of the Greater Mosul area (including some of the disputed territories) would be a valuable intervention to further the peaceful development of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Topic:
Governance, Political stability, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

1465. Under the gun: Resource conflicts and embattled traditional authorities in Central Mali

Author:
Anca-Elena Ursu
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In the Mopti region of Mali, the livelihoods of most people depend on agriculture and pastoralism. Here, a variety of socio-professional groups - such as herders, farmers and fishers - coexist amidst the great natural richness of the inner Delta of the river Niger. Over recent years, poor resource management and subsequent conflict over access to these resources has threatened the livelihoods of virtually every community in central Mali. Formal and traditional justice mechanisms have each often proven incapable of mediating conflicts effectively and bringing justice to the victims and disputants. Moreover, the increase in communal conflicts in central Mali has created a fertile breeding ground for radical, armed groups. These groups have become actively involved in the regulation of access to natural resources, as well as in the mediation of related conflicts, to help create local legitimacy for their rule. That these groups could exploit conflicts to consolidate their power demonstrates that fighting them will not be enough to stop destabilisation in the Mopti region. Only solutions that address the underlying drivers of instability will enable sustainable peace to emerge. This report explores the lack of governance as a structural driver of resource conflict in the region and identifies a mix of short- and long-term measures to increase the legitimacy of the Malian state.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Non State Actors, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

1466. Is there protection in the region? Leveraging funds and political capital in Lebanon’s refugee crisis

Author:
Ana Uzelac and Jos Meester
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This report analyses the challenges of implementing a “protection in the region” agenda in Lebanon, a country that hosts the highest number of refugees per capita in the world, and which has been the recipient of one of the largest per capita aid and support packages since 2016. Our main finding is that EU diplomatic efforts and financial commitments to date have made very limited progress in ensuring protection for Syrian refugees in the country or improving their dismal socio-economic position. On the contrary, the main socio-economic indicators for Syrian refugees have remained very poor for the past three years, and the refugees’ continued presence in the country is increasingly questioned by parts of Lebanon’s political establishment. This report traces the reasons why donor efforts have had such limited success: restrictions created by Lebanese and European political narratives of displacement; the limitations imposed by Lebanon’s clientilistic economy; and the challenges of combining protection in the region with an economic reform agenda. Many donors have opted for predominantly technical approaches, based on cooperation with line ministries and state institutions. In our view, these approaches pay insufficient heed to the complex web of sectarian and personal interests that fuel Lebanese policy-making, with the result that limited progress is achieved for refugees.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Migration, European Union, and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

1467. Multilateral Damage: The impact of EU migration policies on central Saharan routes

Author:
Jérôme Tubiana, Clotilde Warin, and Gaffar Mohammud Saeneen
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This online report studies the effects of EU migration policies and the externalisation of EU border control on Saharan migration routes and on practices in the border regions connecting Niger, Chad, Sudan and Libya. Authors Jérôme Tubiana, Clotilde Warin and Gaffar Mohammud Saeneen find that, in response to the obstacles and opportunities that border externalisation policies present for migrants, migration routes diversify and move to other countries. Beyond the fact that migration is a transnational phenomenon not linked to one particular route or itinerary, this continuous moving of routes is made possible by cross-border Saharan trade and trafficking networks that have put in place the necessary logistics to facilitate migration and which often fall outside government control. Pushed by EU efforts to curtail migration, states such as Niger, Chad and Sudan have shored up border patrols and anti-smuggling operations in the border regions under study here. The report shows that this has been done in a manner that is often not conducive to stability in the region and which contributes to the ‘militia-isation’ – the growing power of militias whose presence undermines the state – of the countries at issue.
Topic:
Migration, Border Control, European Union, and Trafficking
Political Geography:
Sudan, Libya, Chad, Niger, Sahara, and Africa

1468. Innovation in EU migration policy: towards a truly comprehensive approach to migration

Author:
Willemijn Tiekstra and Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The increased arrival of refugees and migrants in Italy in 2015 revealed that the EU was not prepared to cope with an increased inflow of refugees and migrants into its territory. In 2015, the year that saw an unprecedented number of irregular migrants and refugees crossing the Mediterranean, a comprehensive approach to migration was adopted in the Valletta Action Plan, acknowledging that the management of irregular migration is a responsibility for both African and EU leaders. This report holds that, three years after Valletta, serious challenges remain in implementing the building blocks of the EU’s migration approach. Whereas political positions among Member States are converging towards a mode of securitising borders, authors Willemijn Tiekstra and Wouter Zweers argue in their report that a more sustainable and comprehensive approach is needed, taking into account the interests and stability of countries of origin and transit. Based on field research in Senegal, Italy,and Poland, as well as complementary desk research, it seeks to identify best practices from national experiences and bilateral agreements that are feasible within the current European political landscape. Delivering on promised commitments is crucial for all actors involved to make the system work. A failure to implement the comprehensive approach to migration directly affects the EU’s external credibility, endangering the EU’s negotiating position with third countries. Similarly, a failure to resolve deadlock on the internal dimension negatively affects popular support for the EU, putting at risk the European project as a whole.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

1469. Connectivity Between Asia and Europe: ASEM Connectivity Inventory

Author:
Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Wouter Zweers, and Brigitte Dekker
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In preparation for the 12th ASEM Summit and for taking the ASEM connectivity task forward, the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) and the Clingendael Institute prepared the 'ASEM Connectivity Inventory' for the Asia Europe Meeting Pathfinders Group on Connectivity (APGC). The Report contains enumerations and qualitative analysis of ASEM connectivity activities since 2014, and gives recommendations on structure, processes, and coordination in the ASEM connectivity mechanisms. The report was presented to the APGC and the senior officials meeting in September, 2018.
Topic:
Connectivity and ASEM
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

1470. Dealing with tools of political (dis)order: Coercive organisations in the Levant

Author:
Erwin van Veen and Feike Fliervoet
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Militancy is a common method to exercise influence in a given political order. It has become a widespread tactic and necessity across the Levant, especially since 2011. While militancy is sometimes downright violent and destructive, it can also be a force for positive change and even emancipation. Much of the time it sits in between these extremes. But the use of confrontational methods almost always requires organisation and possession of coercive capabilities. This report examines the purpose, nature and development of five types of organisation through which coercion is exerted across the Levant - namely, governmental coercive organisations, quasi-governmental coercive organisations, hybrid coercive organisations, anti-regime coercive organisations and anti-state coercive organisations. The analysis focuses on hybrid coercive organisations because of their paradoxical tendency to work with and against the state at the same time. Consider Iraq's Peshmerga or Badr Corps, for example. The report makes a strong case for being more cautious with the near-automaticity of peacebuilding efforts to focus on coercive organisations representing 'the state'. More precisely, the evidence-base underpinning the report suggests that effective peacebuilding efforts should: Assess the demerits and merits of coercive organisations based on their interests, constituencies and behaviours in relation to the legitimacy of the political order they seek to realise. View the violence mobilised by coercive organisations as a manifestation rather than a cause of the breakdown of political order. Influence coercive organisations on the basis of their behavioural incentives. These incentives are grounded in the domestic political economy interests of coercive organisations, the nature and level of foreign support they receive, and the expectations of their social constituencies. Ensure that the aim of external interventions corresponds with the prevailing interaction dynamic between a particular hybrid coercive organisation and governmental coercive organisations (this point only pertains to hybrid coercive organisations). The report provides a range of basic ideas for how external parties might nudge the interaction between hybrid coercive organisations and the government in a direction that helps to reduce violence.
Topic:
Government, Non State Actors, and Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East and Levant