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1431. American Policy and Changing Alignments in the Middle East

Author:
Geoffrey Kemp
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the National Interest
Abstract:
America’s Middle East policy must adapt to a changing region. The lack of an overarching theory of vital U.S. interests in the Middle East and of a strategy narrowly tailored to defending them has rendered U.S. policy reactive and largely incoherent. To the extent that it has coherence, it is driven by a strategy of primacy—by a complex of ideas in which active, armed American management of the region is essential for stability, in which states do not have a strong tendency to seek balance against threats, and in which increasing U.S. involvement will generally increase stability—and do so at costs acceptable to the United States. This strategy has undergirded costly choices like striking Libya, invading and occupying Iraq, putting American boots on the ground in Syria, and supporting unsavory partners against their internal opponents. This strategy faces building headwinds: public frustration, a growing national debt, and better-armed foes. Primacy comes at a growing opportunity cost: power tied up in the Middle East is unavailable to address a rising China or a more active Russia. And this strategy seems out of step with the region’s rapidly shifting strategic alignments. The time is ripe to go back to the basics, prioritizing the threats that require U.S. action in relation to the other international crises that affect vital U.S. interests, especially in East Asia and Europe
Topic:
International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

1432. Extended Deterrence in a Changing Asia: A U.S.–Japan–South Korea Dialogue

Author:
Paul Saunders
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the National Interest
Abstract:
2012 was a year of political transitions in East Asia, with important elections in Japan and South Korea, a major Communist Party Congress in China to select a new leadership team, and a consolidation process underway in North Korea following the death of Kim Jong-il in late 2011. It was also of course a year of political campaigns in the United States that concluded with President Barack Obama’s re-election. And finally, perhaps due to these many simultaneous transitions, 2012 was a year of hope and anxiety; uncertainty about the future drove questions and speculation, intensifying the contest between possibility and destiny that underlies so many discussions of whether and how our choices can shape the world in which we live.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1433. A new Direction in U.S- Russia Relations?

Author:
Paul Saunders
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the National Interest
Abstract:
America’s relationship with Russia was among the most controversial foreignpolicy issues of the 2016 presidential campaign, and has remained so in the Trump administration’s initial weeks. Much of the controversy has been strictly political, focused primarily on exploiting anger and suspicion toward Moscow as a weapon during the election campaign and, more recently, in confirmation hearings for President Donald Trump’s key foreign-policy and national-security nominees. That said, public discussion before and after the November election has also exposed sharp differences over U.S. policy toward Russia and the assessments of U.S. and Russian interests, objectives and values that shape Washington’s choices. This volume seeks to contribute to that debate by exploring U.S. options in pursuing President Trump’s stated intent to engage with Moscow
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Japan and America

1434. Rethinking U.S Strategy in the Middle East

Author:
Joe Barnes
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the National Interest
Abstract:
President Barack Obama’s Middle East policies have come under increasingly sharp criticism since the emergence of ISIL as a threat to Iraq during the summer of 2014. Some of this criticism has come from predictable quarters: neoconservatives and liberal interventionists who have long been critical of the Obama administration’s relatively “soft touch” approach to the region, notably its hesitance to get the United States more deeply involved in the Syrian civil war. But a sense of drift in U.S. policy toward the Middle East has spread to the general public, as well.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

1435. Allied and Lethal: Islamic State Khorasan’s Network and Organizational Capacity in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Amira Jadoon
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the years following its official formation in January 2015, the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) has conducted some of the most devastating attacks in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, persisting in the face of U.S. airstrikes, Pakistani military operations, and clashes with the Afghan Taliban. But what exactly is ISK? What are the broader contours of ISK’s lethality, targets, and tactics in Afghanistan and Pakistan? More broadly, what explains ISK’s demonstrated ability to survive and thrive in the AfPak region, and what do its operational trends and alliances collectively tell us about its future trajectory?
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1436. Pulling Back the Curtain: An Inside Look at the Islamic State’s Media Organization

Author:
Daniel Milton
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Over the past five years, there has been a significant amount of discussion on the propaganda created and disseminated by the Islamic State. This discourse, which mainly relies on what the group creates for external publication, has been unable to answer questions regarding the structure, policies, and management of the group’s media arm. This Combating Terrorism Center report draws on 13 internal documents that discuss the Islamic State’s media organization in great detail. These documents, obtained by the Department of Defense from Afghanistan, provide an insightful look at how the Islamic State managed its media network. More specifically, this report utilizes these documents to (1) demonstrate that Amaq News Agency is an official node of the Islamic State’s media organization, (2) show the level of detail and direction given to the creation of a wide range of products, (3) illustrate the way the Islamic State’s Diwan of Central Media used policies and programs to centralize control over the propaganda production process, and (4) outline the importance the media organization placed on information security.
Topic:
International Affairs and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1437. Down, but Not Out: An Updated Examination of the Islamic State’s Visual Propaganda

Author:
Daniel Milton
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Since the summer of 2014, the Islamic State has experienced successes and setbacks on the battlefield. That pattern has also been evident in its production of propaganda. In October 2016, the Combating Terrorism Center published a major report that examined the Islamic State’s production of official visual propaganda, such as still-images photo reports as well as the more familiar videos showing both the group’s brutality as well as its efforts to govern. This update to that major report, which relies on a dataset of over 13,000 propaganda releases, seeks to highlight the setbacks the group has faced as its production of propaganda has continued to rise and fall. As shown through the data in this report, in July 2018, the group’s production of official visual propaganda fell to its lowest level since January 2015. Focusing only on the decline of the group’s production of propaganda, however, obscures other developments that portend the possibility of the group’s resurgence in Iraq and Syria, as well as the expansion of its efforts around the world. In examining these trends, this report finds a group that is struggling to produce propaganda as it used to do only a short time ago, but one that retains the capacity to resurge in an effort to recapture the headlines.
Topic:
International Affairs and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1438. Boko Haram Beyond the Headlines: Analyses of Africa’s Enduring Insurgency

Author:
Jacob Zenn and et al
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In a conflict that has no easy answers and no solutions in sight, Boko Haram is already and will remain one of Africa’s enduring insurgencies. In order to better understand Boko Haram now and in the future, this report, edited by Jacob Zenn, challenges some key misconceptions about the insurgency and provides new analyses and insights based on many exclusive primary source materials and datasets. To provide these unique insights, several authors with on-the-ground experience contribute to six areas that are increasingly important but under-researched about Boko Haram and Islamic State in West Africa
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1439. Targeted Terror: The Suicide Bombers of al-Shabaab

Author:
Jason Warner and Ellen Chapin
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Al-Shabaab, an Islamist terrorist group that has been plaguing Somalia since 2006, was named the most deadly terror group in Africa in 2017 by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). One tactic that al-Shabaab uses in its reign of terror is suicide bombing. Despite recognition of the seriousness of the threat that al-Shabaab’s suicide bombers pose, very little is known about how, when, and why al-Shabaab elects to employ the tactic of suicide bombings. This report answers these questions.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1440. U.S. sanctions on Russia and its impact on India

Author:
Amit Bhandari and Chaitanya Giri
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
President Vladimir Putin is in India on a two-day state visit to India, his third trip to India during Prime Minister Modi’s term. A key agreement that has just been signed is the $5 billion deal for the S-400 air defence system. However, U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top defence manufacturers will be a hurdle in closing this agreement, making payments to Russia difficult and scaring away potential Indian partners, especially those with investments in the West. Gateway House looks at India’s options for successfully concluding this agreement without falling foul of American sanctions
Topic:
International Relations and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia and India