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1031. The Expanding China-Russia Defense Partnership

Author:
Richard Weitz
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Russia and China’s relationship is increasingly strengthened by arms sales, joint military exercises, and mutual diplomatic support. With growing frequency, the two countries hare expressing joint concern towards “threatening” U.S. military capabilities and security policies. China’s growing ability to deny foreign navies access to waters and airspace is connected to the sophisticated defense platforms provided by Russia. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are seeking a closer defense partnership, which could take the form of integrated military operations, collaboration on battlefield technology, or a joint missile defense system. Through joint military exercises, China is learning from Russia’s military experience in Crimea, gaining operational knowledge on expeditionary logistics and how to protect military bases in foreign countries. In 2021, the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship expires. Its renewal could introduce new dynamics to the China-Russian relationship, and the possible inclusion of collective defense provisions like those between the U.S. and Japan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, National Security, Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and United States of America

1032. Modernizing the Land-Based Leg of the Nuclear Triad: Myths and Facts

Author:
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs and Brandi Jackson
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Across Democratic and Republican administrations over the past sixty years, U.S. strategists have determined that for the United States, a nuclear triad is the most strategically sound means to credibly deter adversaries. In an increasingly complex threat environment—facing nuclear adversaries and nuclear aspirants with different national objectives, military capabilities, and strategies—a nuclear triad provides the President of the United States with necessary flexibility while accounting for possible changes in adversaries’ capabilities and the geopolitical environment. To remain effective, the U.S. must modernize its Cold War legacy nuclear forces. This booklet is intended to dispel myths surrounding the land-based leg of the nuclear triad and explore the advantages of adopting the ground-based strategic deterrent missile system (GBSD) rather than continuing to recapitalize the aging Minuteman III system.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Military Spending, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1033. China, 5G, and Dominance of the Global “Infosphere”

Author:
WIlliam Schneider
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Modern consumer society has rapidly evolved from domination by “things” to domination by information. Once upon a time, for example, a car was an object for personal transportation in which anything more than basic information about speed and fuel level came from and through the driver. Now, the automobile itself provides and processes information with which drivers interact at a much richer level. Back-up cameras, blind spot and lane drift warning lights, hands-free wireless telephony, and GPS have transformed the driving experience fundamentally, even ahead of the truly revolutionary era of self-driving cars. A large and growing fraction of the world’s day-to-day life of individuals, objects, and institutions will be indelibly stored with an electronic “footprint.” The intelligence value of this information from a national security perspective exclusively accessed through a modern communications system dominated by China – 5G – is immense and profoundly threatening. The new dominance of information is simultaneously bewildering and promising. Moreover, as rapid as the pace of development has been over the past decade, it will soon quicken—with broad implications for almost every aspect of human life. An important aspect of this shift has been the convergence of rapidly developing and mutually reinforcing technologies into an infosphere that will incorporate almost all information-based communications and data services in the global information infrastructure. Not coincidentally, an integrated infosphere meets aspirations held by the People’s Republic of China to dominate and control the global information infrastructure. Beijing’s investments in 5G reflect an understanding that this technology is the gateway to control the world’s information infrastructure and growing realm of 5G-dependent technologies. A Chinese-dominated infosphere is, in fact, the “digital road” component of its Belt-and-Road-Infrastructure (BRI). While U.S. policymakers have yet to fully grasp the implications of this emerging infosphere, the components below reflect the enabling dimensions that support China’s effort to dominate the global information infrastructure.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Internet, 5G, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1034. The Cornerstone and the Linchpin: Securing America’s Northeast Asian Alliances

Author:
Patrick M. Cronin
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
During an era in which strategic gravity is shifting to Asia, the United States cannot be careless in tending to its alliances with Japan and South Korea (the Republic of Korea, or ROK). The three countries face persistent threats from North Korea and from China’s semi-transparent bid for regional hegemony. Meanwhile, rocky relations between Tokyo and Seoul are jeopardizing vital U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific. The latest disagreement between America’s premier allies raises new questions about alliance strategy, commitment, and burden-sharing. These fissures have become exacerbated as the U.S. pressures allies to increase their contributions to regional security and reciprocal trade. [...] This report seeks to explain why the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK alliance are still a vital means of achieving overlapping strategic interests. At the same time, it also argues that keeping these alliances fit for purpose requires radical change rather than business as usual. Both a rapidly changing security environment and growing intra-alliance squabbling pose dangers that require U.S. leadership. This report concludes with specific ideas for advancing bilateral and trilateral cooperation in the coming months and years, without trying to achieve too much too quickly.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Security, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

1035. If You Can’t See ’em, You Can’t Shoot ’em: Improving US Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Targeting

Author:
Seth Cropsey
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This report tracks the development of naval and maritime intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting (ISR/T) from the Cold War to the present day. It reveals the fluctuating relationship between ISR/T and weapons ranges that have adversely impacted the US Navy’s combat capabilities. While the United States developed longer-range weapons throughout the Cold War and revised tactics and fleet composition to better employ those weapons offensively, the gap that remained between weapons range and targeting information had a negative effect on US Navy combat power. Following the Cold War, while weapons and delivery-system range decreased, ISR/T capacity and capability rose, allowing for precision strikes against ground targets at short and medium range. Finally, the contemporary fleet, facing renewed great power competition, is increasingly receiving long-range strike weapons. However, it lacks the ISR/T complex to identify and hit targets at those ranges in most over-the-horizon combat situations. Second, this report reviews the current ISR/T capabilities to which the US Navy has access, primarily in the Pacific theater, and performs first-order sufficiency analysis to gain an understanding of the impact the current program of record has on operational requirements. Finally, the report concludes with several key recommendations to naval policymakers, civilian and military.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, and Surveillance
Political Geography:
Asia, North America, and United States of America

1036. China’s Economic Slowdown: Root Causes, Beijing’s Response and Strategic Implications for the US and Allies

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This monograph attempts to argue and/or demonstrate three main points. First, it looks at why there were credible fears about the stability and viability of the Chinese economy — especially the financial and banking system — leading up to the end of the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2011–15), and what these were. To understand why Beijing was so concerned, the monograph draws out the serious structural problems that were leading inevitably to a permanent slowdown from the double-digit growth rates of the first three decades of reform. Second, the monograph looks at what occurred from 2015 to the present, and how China apparently overcame its economic difficulties. In fact, it has not overcome its problems, but deferred them to a future time in ways that only its unique authoritarian political economy is able to do.Third, it is clear the Communist Party is not passively awaiting an unhappy economic fate in connection with its mounting imbalances and domestic economic dysfunction. In many respects, its leaders have been highly creative in seeking solutions that do not entail a weakening of the party’s hold on economic power. On the contrary, the party has been busily shaping and pursuing grand strategic policies such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) to solve or alleviate many of its domestic political-economic problems. This monograph argues that these and other outward-focused initiatives stem most fundamentally from Chinese weaknesses and vulnerabilities but are being remade and recast into initiatives that will strengthen the position of the CCP domestically, ensure greater resilience for its political economy, and advance its ambitious strategic and international objectives at the same time. In summary, it is about the Communist Party cleverly transforming domestic vulnerability into grand strategy and using economic approaches to gain pre-eminence and “win without fighting.”
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Geopolitics, Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1037. Mexico and Central America: A Delayed Encounter | México y Centroamérica: encuentro postergado

Author:
Luis Rubio, Gustavo Mohar, Salvador Arriola, Jorge Durand, Joaquin Villalobos, Ursula Roldan, Yolanda Gonzalez Cerdeira, Carlos Quesnel, Demetrios G. Papademetriou, Oscar Chacon, Marco A. Alcazar, Beatriz Zepeda, Carlos Heredia, and Mauricio Reyes
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI)
Abstract:
The surprise arrival of massive migrant contingents (known as “caravans”) to the border between Guatemala and Mexico constituted a watershed in the history of Central American migration to the United States through Mexican territory. This text is published by the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI) in order to contribute to the discussion in Mexico, in the United States and in Central America itself. The contribution of Central American social activists and academics with their local perspectives enhances and complements their Mexican counterparts’ reflections and proposals. Now is the time to undertake concrete measures for this delayed encounter. /// La sorpresiva llegada a la frontera entre México y Guatemala de grandes contingentes de migrantes (conocidos como “caravanas”) marcó un parteaguas en la historia de las migraciones procedentes de Centroamérica con destino a Estados Unidos, que utilizan suelo mexicano como territorio de tránsito. El Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales (COMEXI) publica este texto para abonar a la discusión interna en México, así como a la que tiene lugar tanto en Estados Unidos como en la propia Centroamérica. La contribución de académicos y activistas sociales centroamericanos, con sus puntos de vista locales, enriquece y complementa las reflexiones y propuestas de sus contrapartes mexicanas. Es momento de asumir acciones concretas a este encuentro postergado.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, and Borders
Political Geography:
Central America, Mexico, and United States of America

1038. To Stay or to Go? How European Right-wing Populist Parties are Adjusting to the Post-Brexit Era Public Opinion

Author:
David Fernández Marcos
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Since the 1990s a great deal of literature has been written predicting the behaviour of right-wing populists explaining their policies and ideology. Until Brexit, there had been no such clear victory for right-wing populist policies. Drawing from the current state of the art, data from the national and European electoral party manifestos as well as Eurobarometer survey data from France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, this dissertation employs Strom’s rational choice-based party behaviour model to explore how the internal structure and each country’s political and institutional environments have mediated the right-wing populist parties’ reaction to the upswing of positive opinions about the European Union among European public opinion since Brexit. They have done so in two directions: by either continuing their promise to leave the EU or by dropping the promise and instead advocating institutional reform, in those cases where the parties seek to govern.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Brexit, Populism, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe

1039. Preparing the armed forces for disruptive technological changes

Author:
Claire Dhéret, Mihai Palimariciuc, and Natanael Rother
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
In this report, Mihai Palimariciuc and Natanael Rother, together with Claire Dhéret, look at the implications new technologies apply on the defence and security sector, while focusing its analysis on the impact on the European armed forces. By doing so, it aims to contribute to the existing body of research, while attempting to provide an answer to the following questions: (1) What is the skill composition of the armed forces in the European Union (EU)?; (2) Which disruptive technologies are most likely to have an impact on the European armed forces?; (3) How is the defence sector preparing itself for the integration of emerging technologies?; (4) Are there any existing best practice examples of armed forces training for the jobs of tomorrow? This report has been prepared in the context of the European Policy Centre (EPC) project “The future of work – Towards a progressive agenda for all” and has received the kind support of the European Organisation of Military Associations and Trade Unions (EUROMIL). It is, to a large extent, based on the discussion held in the EPC workshop “Technological changes in EU security & defence: What are the implications for the military workforce?”, organised on 19 March 2019, and the interviews that were carried out with the workshop’s experts/speakers. When possible, this report provides statistical evidence to the statements made by the workshop’s speakers and participants.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

1040. China-Belarus Cooperation Under “Belt and Road Initiative”

Author:
Weihong Xu
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pangoal Institution
Abstract:
As the programmatic strategy of China’s economic reopening, “Belt and Road Initiative" has gained more and more recognition from abroad. Belarus, as it sits at the core of the New Silk Road Economy Zone, is also coming to the stage. Belarus has a good geographic location and advantageous natural conditions, but the difficulty of seeking Western assistance in developing its real economy has been constantly rising after Brexit, isolationist Trump, and the rising of anti-globalism in Europe. Consequently, Belarus has been responding positively to China’s BRI. Especially in the cooperation of production capacity, Belarus industries are sincerely looking at China, as China is the only great economy that transcends from planned economy to market economy.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Eurasia, and Belarus