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161. The US–China trade–tech stand-off and the need for EU action on export control

Author:
Brigitte Dekker and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
As the great power rivalry and (technological) trade conflict between the United States (US) and China intensifies, calls for an export control regime tailored to so-called emerging technologies are growing. In August 2018 the US government announced the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), seeking to limit the release of emerging technologies to end uses, end users and destinations of concern. The contest is on for the leader in the development and use of emerging technologies, but also for shaping norms and writing the rules for their use. This requires the Netherlands and other EU member states – in coordination with key stakeholders from business and academia – also to redouble their efforts to recraft their own approach to export controls of so-called ‘omni-use’ emerging technologies. This Clingendael Report outlines four levels of action in the field of export control for the Dutch government to pursue in parallel: bilaterally with the US; European Union cooperation; ‘Wassenaar’ and beyond; and trusted communities.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Power Politics, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

162. The Future of EU’s Eastern Partnership Beyond 2020

Author:
Cristina Gherasimov
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The year 2019 has marked the ten-year anniversary of the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) and seen the start of the development of a new strategy for the EaP, which is to be announced by mid-2020. A new European Commission took office on December 1, and according to its president, Ursula von der Leyen, “the European Union’s future is shaped and tied in with the future of its neighbors and its partners. A stable, secure and prosperous region around our Union is therefore of paramount importance. The EU should be present and active across our neighborhood, cooperating on common challenges and opportunities and providing support for essential reforms.” In her mission letter to Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Olivér Várhelyi, von der Leyen asked him to “take the Eastern Partnership to the next level” by proposing a new set of long-term policy objectives for the EaP. The changing domestic and geopolitical environment of the last ten years, and its effects on the EaP countries and the EU member states make this a challenging task. Zigzagging sociopolitical and economic developments in the EaP countries, the capacity to act of the EU (and of Germany, a particularly important player in the region), and the rising influence of third powers in the region are among the main factors that have profoundly changed the nature of the relationship between the EU and its neighborhood. The changing context therefore needs to be considered in the design of the next set of policy objectives and instruments. The EU and its member states, however, lack a clear strategy and a political vision for how to further engage with the eastern neighborhood. This report analyzes these factors that the EU should consider when engaging with the EaP countries in times of crisis and external pressure beyond 2020.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe

163. Asymmetrical Arms Control: How to Account for Innovation and Diversity in European Armed Forces

Author:
Torben Schutz
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Conventional arms control in Europe is in crisis. As it is based on a simple headcount of weapons systems, it does not reflect the qualitative changes to armed forces’ structures and assets brought about by technological innovation. It is high time to embrace asymmetrical arms control mechanisms which are a promising method to deal with the diversity of qualitative changes in European armed forces. Germany should push for such innovation within the OSCE.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Weapons
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

164. Both Russian and American Publics Sense a Transatlantic Rift

Author:
Dina Smeltz and Lily Wojtowicz
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Building over the last few years, disputes between the United States and Europe over trade, climate change, and nuclear weapons were on full display at the annual Munich Security Conference last month. Russian leaders have tried to exploit these strains between the United States and its allies. In Munich, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov of Russia suggested that the European Union and Russia build a “shared European home.”[1] Sidelining the United States through deepened ties with Europe has long been a strategy of the Kremlin to weaken the West’s united front against Russia’s regional and international aggression.[2] Findings from a new US-Russia binational survey, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center, reveal that publics in both countries have noticed cracks in the US-EU relationship.[3] While Americans have long expressed support for NATO, a majority say that unity among NATO allies is weakening. At the same time, Russians’ impressions that transatlantic security links are weakening contribute to their sense that the United States is now in a weaker global position.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Public Opinion, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

165. Russians Want Crimea; Prefer Luhansk and Donetsk Independent

Author:
Stepan Goncharov and Denis Volkov
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains unresolved and—after five years—it does not appear to be reaching a resolution any time soon. The ongoing crisis in eastern Ukraine between the Ukrainian government and rebel forces supported by Moscow not only degrades the relationship between Kiev and Moscow but also contributes to the deteriorating relations between Russia and the West. [1] This particular regional conflict has become an important destabilizing factor for international security. Findings from a new binational survey, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center, show that a plurality of Russians believe these eastern areas of Ukraine should be independent states.[2] And a majority of Russians continue to say that Russia’s annexation of Crimea has brought the country more good than harm.
Topic:
International Relations, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Crimea

166. The challenges of the military integration in the EU: an approach to the heterogeneity of weapon system categories

Author:
Adrian Blasquez
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The subject of EU's defence has been treated as a political challenge widely covered in the media in recent years. However, less attention has been paid to the troubles it presents at the military level. The purpose of this paper is to shed light on this issue, specifically, on the challenges that multiplicity of weapon systems in Europe entail, and the potential advantages and challenges pooled public procurement and harmonization of defence entails. To this end, it will briefly review the collaborative projects that have taken place in the last decades to focus later on two initiatives launched at EU level: the PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) and the EDF (European Defence Fund). Hereinafter, it will touch upon the implications this phenomenon has for the defence market and armaments standardization.
Topic:
Military Affairs, European Union, Weapons, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

167. An Arduous Path: Are Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania Ready to Join the Area?

Author:
Žiga Faktor
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The concept of free movement between European countries anchored in the Schengen Agreement, manifested in the creation of the borderless Schengen Area, is arguably one of the great achievements of European integration. By facilitating conditions for trade, services and movement of citizens, the Schengen Area acts as one of the converging economic factors for Member States. Decision on the dissolution of state borders is generally seen as a positive step for economic development, regional integration and a sign of trust between the countries. Nevertheless, it also raises many questions and challenges, especially on the topic of security and compliance of national laws with rules and conditions set in the Agreement. This article will focus on the accession of Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania to the Schengen Area and discuss the main difficulties and obstacles for each country.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Trade, and Schengen
Political Geography:
Europe, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia

168. MFF Negotiations: What Czechs think of the latest development

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The original goal of the previous European Commission – to finish the post 2020 multiannual financial framework (MFF) negotiations by the end of the year – is shattered. The December European Council did not reach any final decision, so the earliest deadline is the March EC meeting, with a possibility of slipping into German presidency in the second half of 2020. This would leave a very little time for preparation of partnership agreements with the member states, thus potentially leading to disruption in utilization of EU funding. As of now, it seems that the EU has still a long way to go until it reaches agreement over the future MFF. Member states are negotiating not only about the total size of the future European budgets, but also allocations to various headings or system of resources.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Financial Markets, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

169. The Unfulfilled Promise of Kosovo Visa Liberalization

Author:
Jana Juzová
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Kosovo’s path towards visa liberalization started in 2012 when the European Commission submitted the Visa Liberalization Roadmap for Kosovo. This step was long awaited by the small country as all the other five Western Balkan states started the dialogue already in May and June 2008. At that time, it was still being decided inside EU member states whether they would recognize the newly declared state1 and it was clear that there is no consensus across the EU. As the united EU approach towards Kosovo proved to be a difficult and sensitive issue due to the concerns that opening visa dialogue would imply recognition, Kosovo was left out from the process. The length of the visa liberalization process differed among the Western Balkan countries. Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia progressed rather swiftly, and the dialogue was closed with the decision to lift the visa regime for these countries in late-2009. Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina had to wait one year longer as their readiness and fulfilment of conditions was evaluated as insufficient in 2009. Kosovo, lagging behind the rest of the region, opened the dialog with the EU in 2012, at the same time as Georgia. While Georgian citizens already reached a successful end of the process and are allowed to travel to the EU without visa since March 2017, it is still uncertain when Kosovo will achieve this objective.
Topic:
Immigration, European Union, Borders, and Visa
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

170. The Amazon Wildfires and Environmental Conservation: What Can the EU do?

Author:
Helder Hermani
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Helder Hermani published a EU Monitor in which he focuses on the ways EU can contribute to the conservation of Amazon rainforests. He provides analysis and proposes 5 specific steps. The European Union is arguably the global power most devoted to the environmental conservation and combating climate change. However, isolated actions tend to prove ineffective in achieving these objectives. "The neoliberal policy oriented to private investments, coupled with the bulky military composition at the highest level of officials, has driven Brazil to pursue two goals in regards to international bodies: a permanent seat in the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and the status of major non-NATO ally.“ "The EU [...] must make it easier for suppliers, manufacturers, retailers, consumers and public authorities to identify products from deforestation-free supply chains.
Topic:
Environment, Neoliberalism, Investment, Conservation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Europe, South America, and Amazon Basin