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961. Reducing Nuclear Weapons Risks: A Menu of 11 Policy Options

Author:
Sico van der Meer
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
As long as nuclear weapons exist, efforts should be made to prevent them from being used. Especially during the Cold War much thought was given to measures to prevent a nuclear war – on purpose or by accident. Considering the recent increase in the status of nuclear weapons in strategic communications, military spending, and political rhetoric in many of the nine states possessing nuclear weapons, it is worth reviewing the possibilities of such risk-reduction options. In this policy brief author Sico van der Meer identifies eleven categories of policy options which might be implemented by any of the nuclear weapon states to further reduce the risks of nuclear weapons being used. It also offers a brief exploration of the venues that could be used to discuss and implement any of the risk reduction policies identified here.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

962. The Power of More Foreign-Born Workers: How Raising Immigration Levels Can Boost US Economic Growth

Author:
Research and Policy Committee of the Committee for Economic Development
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The future growth prospects of the US economy are severely constrained by a lack of working-age population growth. Fewer workers means less output without increases in productivity so large as to be highly unlikely. Increased immigration alone directly addresses the problem of fewer workers contributing to the US economy. Sound policy can help boost both the quality and quantity of available workers while ensuring that increased immigration serves to broaden rather than diminish opportunities for native-born workers.
Topic:
Immigration, Economic growth, Labor Policies, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

963. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA)

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On 21 March, 2018, 44 African heads of state and government dignitaries signed a historic African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) at the 10th Ordinary Session of African Union (AU) Heads of State Summit held in Kigali, Rwanda. The AfCFTA is the largest free trade area since the World Trade Organization (WTO) was established in 1995. The Session was under the theme: “Creating One African Market,” and falls under AU’s Agenda 2063 Initiative. The AfCFTA is also one of the biggest free-trade areas with regards to the number of countries, thus, encompassing 1.2 billion people with over $4 trillion in combined consumer and business spending should the remaining 11 AU member countries join the Agreement (Signe, 2018). The AfCFTA would additionally become effective 30 days subsequent to ratification by the legislative houses of at least 22 African countries; countries that signed the Agreement have 120 days for its ratification. This paper seeks to outline the significance of the Agreement, its aims, challenges and the continuous work needed to sustain it going forward with potential impact it may have on third country agreements with AU member countries.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Tariffs, Free Trade, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

964. Spotlight on Africa | The South Sudan Conflict – 2018 Khartoum Peace Agreement

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On 27 June 2018, South Sudan’s main belligerents inked a peace deal that aims to set the country on a path to normalcy from it over half decade of conflict. The deal was reached at the backdrop of a two-day talks between President Salva Kiir and ‘rebel leader’, Riek Machar, former Vice President of South Sudan. The Khartoum talks were mediated by President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan and President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda on behalf of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)2 . The announcement of the deal came both as a surprise and relief – surprise because only a week prior to this deal, the warring parties had stalemated a peace pact intended to resurrect an earlier peace deal signed in 2015. In fact the leading figures, both Kiir and Machar had summarily not only rejected that deal but also the notion of even working together, the deal came as a relief in certain quarters cognizance of the 30 June deadline set by the UN Security Council after which sanctions on South Sudan would be renewed.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Conflict, Peace, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

965. National Security in the Age of Hybrid War

Author:
Ilhami B. Değirmencioğlu
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
During the course of the past 10 years, the security environment has become more complex due to the blurring of the lines of warfare. Therefore, the ‘gray zone’ between peace and war expanded and became a battlefield of non-conventional warfare such as counterinsurgency, terrorism, cyber-attacks, etc. (Mansoor, 2012: 1). The failed and fragile states in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, as well as non-recognized de facto states in the Caucasus played catalytic role in the expansion of the non-conventional warfare. Moreover, Great Powers inclined to use increasingly the non-conventional warfare in the proxy and delegated wars waged by them. In the recent years, the non-state actors used innovative and complicated tactics against legal authorities in many countries. The prevalence of the new complex threats transformed the classic war concept into a concept called ‘new wars.’ Due to the combined use of the conventional and non-conventional warfare, many scholars and politicians started to call the new model of war as ‘hybrid war.’
Topic:
National Security, Conflict, Peace, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America

966. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan push for cooperation

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The African Union (AU) held its 30th Summit from 22 – 29 January in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The central theme of the Summit was a clarion call to strengthen African unity and fight against corruption and the eradication of poverty on the continent. President Paul Kagame of Rwanda was elected the new AU chairperson at the Summit, however, it is a significant development that transpired on the sidelines of the Summit among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan that this policy update seeks to address pursuant to an earlier published policy brief, The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and geopolitical tension between Egypt and Ethiopia with Sudan in the mix.2 President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt, Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn all signaled their resolve to avoid misunderstandings cognizance of Ethiopia’s construction of its dam, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during a sideline meeting at the Summit. A statement released by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that, “we (the three country heads) have agreed to work as one on matters among the three countries, particularly on the construction of the GERD” (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2018).
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, International Affairs, Infrastructure, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

967. Spotlight on Africa | Turkey–Africa Relations

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On the 11th and 12th of February 2018, the “2nd Turkey–Africa Ministerial Review Conference” transpired in Istanbul. The Conference was held under the tutelage of the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. In participation was the Deputy Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission, H. E. Thomas Qwesi Quartey together with several foreign affairs ministers of African countries as well as AU representatives. Considering that a Turkey–Africa Summit is scheduled to be held in 2019 in Turkey, this TurkeyAfrica Ministerial Review Conference was held to evaluate the progress of Turkey’s Africa partnership so far in conjunction with steps that could be taken to even solidify this special relationship.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Education, Health, International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, and Conference
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Middle East

968. Spotlight on Africa | What Next for Libya?

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
2017 could be described by Libyans and many in the international community as a year of political stagnation with no vital accomplishment in terms of the political impasse and deadlock in postGaddafi Libya (El-Gamaty, 2018), a scenario that has seen the establishment of rival governments and the proliferation of militias among certain factions embroiled in the Libyan conflict. A ray of hope has however appeared in the form of renewed efforts to get the country back to full functionality. It is in this vain that on 29 May, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted leaders of rival Libyan factions together with diplomats from over 20 countries (including UN Special Envoy for Libya Ghassan Salame, French Foreign Affairs Minister Le Drian, Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso) in Paris in attempt to broker a peace deal and a pathway to elections in Libya.
Topic:
Elections, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

969. Breaking the Defense Barrier

Author:
Arthur Herman
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The key to strengthening and deepening the U.S.-Japan alliance in order to better meet regional threats is to increase defense trade and defense industrial cooperation between the two countries. A Defense Trade Cooperation Treaty (DTCT), a formal agreement between two countries which exempts their trade in certain specified defense and defense-related articles from the arms export regulations of both nations, would be an important way to achieve that goal.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

970. Are Interest Payments on Debt Derailing Fiscal Consolidation?

Author:
Shebo Nalishebo and Florence Banda-Muleya
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This policy brief provides a review of the performance of the first quarter of the 2018 National Budget. The paper provides context by looking at both the revenue and expenditure trends during the last three years when Government instituted some fiscal adjustment measures to bring the country back to a path of fiscal fitness. In analysing the 2018 Budget, the first quarter preliminary outturns are compared to the approved Budget for 2018, the projected performance for the first quarter as well as the first quarter of 2017. We assess fiscal fitness over the last three years and determine that fiscal consolidation had begun. While fiscal performance was generally high, budget credibility and sustainability were low. In the first quarter of 2018, revenues were higher than planned and most expenditures were within the projected amounts. Nonetheless, interest payments were much higher than expected and are likely to be a major source of spending overruns in 2018.
Topic:
Debt, Government, Budget, Public Debt, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia