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4341. Armenia: Picking up the Pieces

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Armenia's flawed presidential election, the subsequent lethal crackdown against a peaceful protest rally, the introduction of a state of emergency and extensive arrests of opposition supporters have brought the country to its deepest crisis since the war against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh ended in 1994. The situation deprives Serzh Sarkisian, scheduled to be inaugurated as president on 9 April 2008, of badly needed legitimacy and handicaps prospects for much needed democratic reform and resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict alike. Unless the U.S., EU and others with significant diplomatic leverage over the regime in Yerevan exert pressure, Armenia is unlikely to make progress on either. The Sarkisian administration must urgently seek credible dialogue with the opposition, release prisoners detained on political grounds, stop arrests and harassment of the opposition and lift all measures limiting freedom of assembly and expression. Unless steps are taken to address the political crisis, the U.S. and EU should suspend foreign aid and put on hold negotiations on further and closer cooperation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Political Violence, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

4342. Turkish Policy toward Central Asia

Author:
Bülent Aras
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, a Turkish world from the “Adriatic Sea to the Chinese Wall” became a new topic of discussion in Turkish policy circles. While Turkey tried to develop close political, economic and cultural relations with the newly independent Central Asian Republics, the mid and late 1990s witnessed a steady decline in the relations and failed to produce any concrete results. With its new foreign policy outlook, Turkey is seeking to increase its field of sphere in Central Asia by revitalizing its efforts to reconnect with the sister Turkish states. Security, economic cooperation, energy and civil society initiatives are the new dynamics of the Turkish- Central Asian relations
Topic:
International Relations and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East

4343. Kosovo Independence: An Albanian Perspective

Author:
Enika Abazi
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Kosovo's independence has revealed shifting strategic landscapes, security concerns and domestic developments in regional and international politics with significant implications for all actors in the region. Russia calculated to restore its lost 'superpower' status and control Serbia's strategic oil industries. Turkey's prompt recognition of independence increased its impact and prevented a stronger Greek-Serb- Russian axis in the region, while strengthening its Western identity. Kosovo's independence will be a test case for keeping peace and stability in the Balkans within the new dynamics of regional and international politics.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Kosovo, Balkans, and Albania

4344. The AK Party Closure Case: Domestic Situation and International Reactions

Author:
Hasan Kösebalaban
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The closure case against AK Party heralds a new era in Turkish politics marked by the increased intervention of the judiciary in politics. Inasmuch as the governing party enjoys support of half of the Turkish electorate, the case has harmed the image of Turkish democracy and consequently risks jeopardizing Turkey's quest for full membership in the EU. The overall reaction of the West to the case indicates that the Western political and intellectual elites avoid the conventional Islamist secularist dichatomy in interpreting Turkish politics. To-level EU bureaucrats have emphasized that closure would seriously jeopardize the process of membership. AK Party needs to accelerate the democratization process by focusing on the rest of the constitutional reforms required for EU membership.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

4345. Does Turkey Need a New Standby Agreement?

Author:
Erdal T. Karagöl
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Since 1960, nineteen Standby arrangements have been signed. With these agreements, significant progress has been made in Turkish economy: inflation has fallen to the lowest level since 1986, the public debtto- GNP ratio has been falling, and interest rates have declined rapidly. IMF's immediate goals concern exchange rate stability and balance of payments, and evaluations of IMF programs tend to concentrate on these two objectives. Yet, whether or not the IMF programs have positive effects on these short-term goals, what ultimately matters is that they induce economic growth and do not concentrate on incomes.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

4346. The Headscarf Ban: A Quest for Solutions

Author:
Mustafa Şentop
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Female students with headscarf are currently prevented to enter the university in Turkey although there is no legal ground for such a ban. The ongoing controversy about the type of clothing for female students at the higher education institutions has become more intensified since the recent constitutional change in February 2008 to lift the de facto headscarf ban. The debate over this question revolves around whether headscarf is a religious attire or a political symbol, whether it should be banned to protect the secular foundations of the state or conversely allowed on the basis of individual freedom of religion as a corollary of secularism. The solution lies in the implementation of constitutional amendments without a further delay.
Topic:
Civil Society, Education, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

4347. Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Turkey

Author:
Hakki Uygur
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The Iranian nuclear issue has serious implications for regional and international security and as such requires a comprehensive analysis of the Iranian domestic power structure, foreign policy decision making process and nuclear diplomacy. Iran has a complex internal decision making process and the management of nuclear issue makes the situation more complicated. This policy brief argues that the Iranian nuclear issue is as much a regional and international issue as it is part of the domestic power struggle in Iran. It also argues that Turkey should follow the nuclear issue closely and play a constructive role in opposing the proliferation of WMD including nuclear weapons in the Middle East while maintaining good relations with Iran.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

4348. Turkey: Energy Status and Expectations

Author:
Yusuf Yazar and Hasan Hüseyin Erkaya
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Turkey has a growing economy demanding about 7% more energy each year. It's electric power generation capacity (approx. 41,000 MW) must be doubled in the next 10 years to meet the demand. Natural gas has a significant share in electricity production, which should be reduced. Domestic and renewable energies should be employed in meeting the demand. Turkey took major steps toward liberalization of its energy market. Private enterprises are expected to invest in the energy market in a timely manner. Turkey has an “energy corridor” position between the gas and oil producing countries and the importing countries. Turkey's efforts to actualize the use of renewable and domestic sources should be supported.
Topic:
Development and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

4349. Radicalisation in Danish prisons

Author:
Jon A. Olsen
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The particularly polarizing environment in prisons creates an increased risk of religious radicalisation, especially among young people with a newly formed religious identity. Prison inmates iare used to dividing the world into separate groups and cementing their identity by rhetorically dissociating themselves from other groups of inmates. The risk of radicalisation is increased when this world view is applied to religious identity formation. Therefore, it is important that there is a good and stabile representation of imams in prisons who can convey an inclusive understanding of religion to the inmates so that they do not use their religion to dissociate themselves from the surrounding society. A noticeable presence of an imam in a prison also makes it harder for other inmates with a radical religious world view to assume an authoritative role in relation to the young converts. This requires an increased focus on the issue as well as a co-ordinated effort. This brief looks at radicalisation in prisons and how it can be dealt with.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism

4350. From bear to bull? Sub-Saharan Africa and Global Capital Markets

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The current boom in global commodity prices and the expansion of Chinese interests in sub-Saharan Africa are part of a general warming of external investors to the region. This policy brief examines trends in commercial financial instruments such as equities, bonds and commercial bank lending and their impact on economic development. It reviews the nature and behaviour of these instruments in developing countries compared with more traditional development finance, such as foreign aid. This provides a foundation for analysing past and present trends in sub-Saharan Africa. It is argued that, like many other low income countries in the past, sub-Saharan Africa has received negligible inflows of external commercial financing. If anything, the region has been additionally excluded from these flows due to very weak levels of financial sector development even compared to other low income countries. At the same time, recent changes in global and domestic conditions mean that the situation is evolving rapidly. There is mounting evidence to show that many economies in sub-Saharan Africa are enjoying significantly expanded access to commercial external capital flows. Given good prospects that this trend will continue, the playing field for traditional donors is likely to alter significantly. The brief concludes by reflecting on how donors might respond to these emerging policy challenges.
Topic:
Development, Markets, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Africa and China