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4261. PolicyWatch #1391: Can Lebanon's March 14 Reverse the Tide?

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, Lebanon's new national unity government is slated to announce its ministerial statement (bayan waziri), the policy document that will define Beirut's working parameters and agenda through the spring 2009 elections. For the pro-West majority March 14 coalition, the priority will be to incorporate into the statement a reference to UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, which prohibits weapons movement to Hizballah and expands government sovereignty throughout Lebanon. Hizballah, for its part, will look to maintain the legitimacy of "the resistance." Although March 14 still maintains a government majority, three years of hostility and self-inflicted wounds have left the ruling party dramatically weakened, making it unclear whether the coalition will be able to prevent Hizballah from consolidating further political gains.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

4262. PolicyWatch #1389: Hizballah's Military Wing Under Pressure Despite Political Gains

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, Lebanon's new national unity government is slated to announce its ministerial statement (bayan waziri), the policy document that will define Beirut's working parameters and agenda through the spring 2009 elections. For the pro-West majority March 14 coalition, the priority will be to incorporate into the statement a reference to UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, which prohibits weapons movement to Hizballah and expands government sovereignty throughout Lebanon. Hizballah, for its part, will look to maintain the legitimacy of "the resistance." Although March 14 still maintains a government majority, three years of hostility and self-inflicted wounds have left the ruling party dramatically weakened, making it unclear whether the coalition will be able to prevent Hizballah from consolidating further political gains.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

4263. PolicyWatch #1388: Saudi Arabia: Interfaith Talks Abroad, Intolerance at Home

Author:
Simon Henderson and Jasmine El-Gamal
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, Saudi Arabia is organizing a global interfaith conference in Madrid, with more than 200 Muslim, Christian, Jewish, Hindu, and Buddhist religious leaders from 54 countries expected to attend. The conference, in the words of its main organizer, the Mecca-based Muslim World League, will "focus on common human values." Many in the West, however, will likely judge the conference as a Saudi public relations effort to emphasize its leadership of the Islamic world, and to ward off criticism, especially from the United States, that Saudi Arabia bears continuing responsibility for political and financial backing of Sunni extremists across the Middle East.
Topic:
Islam and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

4264. PolicyWatch #1384: Supplicants to Saudi Arabia: The Jeddah Energy Meeting

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This weekend, Saudi Arabia will attempt to counter accusations that it has not done enough to stop rising oil prices by hosting an international energy summit of government and oil-company officials. Invitations were sent after the kingdom -- the world's top oil exporter, home to nearly a quarter of known reserves -- was pressured to take action on prices that have increased 40 percent so far this year. Unless Saudi pricing policy changes, however, the meeting is unlikely to bring any relief to consumers.
Topic:
Energy Policy and Oil
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

4265. PolicyWatch #1383: Domestic and Regional Politics Delay U.S.-Iraqi Security Agreement

Author:
Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While experts negotiate the technical aspects of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) -- an arrangement that would govern future security relations between Iraq and the United States -- Iraqi politicians are engaged in a rhetorical campaign against such an agreement, making it nearly impossible to finalize a deal by this summer. Meanwhile, the escalating debate now includes Iraq's neighbors, with top Iranian officials expressing their opposition to any kind of security arrangement.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

4266. PolicyWatch #1382: Reconciling with Hamas? Abbas's Hedge Against a Failed Peace Process

Author:
Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 4, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas marked the anniversary of the 1967 War by making a surprise call for dialogue with Hamas. In response to multiple challenges to his authority -- impasse on the peace process, ongoing dissent within Fatah, and regional pressure to resolve the internal Palestinian conflict -- Abbas has abandoned his demands for Hamas to return Gaza to its pre-June 2007 condition and apologize for its violent coup. However, a gulf remains between Hamas and Fatah, and it is unlikely that renewed dialogue can bridge the gap. Abbas's move may be an effort to pressure the United States to become more involved, and to maintain a fallback position if peace is not achieved. Accordingly, his call to Hamas should be seen as tactical, rather than a strategic, turning point toward Palestinian reconciliation.
Topic:
Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

4267. PolicyWatch #1380: Ahmadinezhad Deflects Critcism with Attacks on Clerics

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In late May, an official close to Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad publicly accused more than forty high-ranking government officials -- including some of the country's most powerful clerics -- of economic corruption. These unprecedented revelations may signal the start of a significant power struggle inside the Iranian government, one likely to intensify between now and the May 2009 presidential election.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

4268. PolicyWatch #1378: Ending (or Deepening) the Crisis in Lebanon: The Role of Electoral Reform

Author:
Jean-Pierre Katrib
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The May 25 election of Gen. Michel Suleiman as Lebanon's twelfth president was a central element of the Qatari-brokered compromise between the March 14 coalition and the Hizballah-led opposition. The agreement was greeted with relief in Washington and other international capitals, allaying fears that Lebanon was once again heading toward civil war. Now that Fouad Siniora has been re-designated as prime minister, the Doha agreement's remaining elements include the difficult task of establishing a "national unity government" and holding parliamentary elections in 2009. The new law governing those elections will determine whether Lebanon will have a solid future foundation or if the day of final reckoning has been merely postponed.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon

4269. PolicyWatch #1377: Treatment of Bahais: A Test of Human Rights in Iran

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 14, the Iranian government arrested six prominent Bahai leaders and accused them of "endangering national security." The timing of the arrests has led some to speculate that the Iranian government is trying to link these leaders to the April explosion at a religious center in Shiraz that killed fourteen people. Considering Iran's clerical establishment believes the existence of religious minorities undermines official Shiite orthodoxy, these latest arrests are just another black mark on Iran's long and dismal record of protecting individual human rights and religious freedom.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

4270. PolicyWatch #1376: Turkey Turns Cold to European Defense: Implications for Western Security

Author:
Erdal Tatli
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In June 2007, Turkey decided to turn its back on European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) after a long series of negotiations with the EU. Although the Cyprus issue has always complicated Turkey's involvement in ESDP, Turkey has been an important actor in Western security architecture for decades, and its withdrawal from the force has profound implications for the United States, Europe, and Western security institutions, including NATO.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East