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392. Myanmar’s 2020 Elections and Conflict Dynamics
- Author:
- Mary Callahan and Myo Zaw Oo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In late 2020, Myanmar will hold a general election for more than a thousand seats in Union, state, and regional legislative bodies. The next year and a half will also see two high-level, conflict-laden processes capture domestic and international attention—the 21st Century Panglong peace conference and possible attempts to repatriate Rohingya refugees. This report evaluates the environment in which the peace process, Rohingya repatriation, and the election intersect and identifies opportunities for mitigating conflict in the run-up to the election.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Democracy, Refugees, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Myanmar
393. The United Wa State Army and Burma’s Peace Process
- Author:
- Bertil Lintner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The United Wa State Army, a force of some twenty-thousand fighters, is the largest of Burma’s ethnic armed organizations. It is also the best equipped, boasting modern and sophisticated Chinese weaponry, and operates a formidable drug empire in the Golden Triangle region. This report examines the history of the Wa people, the United Wa State Army’s long-standing political and military ties to China, and the Wa’s role in Burma’s fragile peace process.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Ethnicity, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Burma, and Southeast Asia
394. Addressing the Challenges of Urbanization in Africa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
- Abstract:
- Africa is the world’s least urbanized continent, and yet the rate at which its cities are expanding is growing faster than no other worldwide – at an average of 3.5 percent per year. This growth of urbanization does, however, vary across the continent, ranging from the already heavily urbanized North Africa (47.8 percent) to the least urbanized Sub-Saharan Africa (32.8 percent).The aggregate rate of urbanization on the continent is projected to grow from 40 percent in 2015 to 56 percent in 2050. The enormous speed at which Africa’s cities are growing is linked to other key development trends, most prominently accelerating economic and population growth, increasing migration from rural to urban areas, and the youth bulge. It is strongly driven by Africans’ perceptions that cities – in contrast to the continent’s rural areas – offer an abundance of livelihood opportunities, including employment and income-generating opportunities, food security, and access to finance, education and social capital as well as social protection.
- Topic:
- Urbanization, Economic growth, Urban, Population Growth, and Cities
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, and Sahara
395. Opportunities and Pitfalls in Practical Translation of Youth Inclusivity for Sustainable Peacebuilding in Africa
- Author:
- Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
- Abstract:
- The share of Africa’s youth in the world is expected to increase to a staggering 42 percent by 2030 and is projected to continue to grow throughout the remainder of the 21st century, more than doubling from current levels by 2055. Data on direct conflict casualties suggests that more than 90 percent of all deaths occur among young adult males. Today, some 50 percent of the 1.4 billion people living in countries impacted by crises and fragility are under the age of 20. The Security Council has recognized that an estimated 408 million youth (ages 15-29) reside in settings affected by armed conflict or organized violence whereby 1 out of 4 youth globally are affected by armed conflict. These figures are gut-wrenching but indispensable for our understanding of peacebuilding in today’s age. With a global population of over 1.8 billion, young people— though disproportionally affected by armed conflict and organized violence—could potentially employ the unique capacity and ability to take on our planet’s most deep routed conflicts. Their inclusion and leadership are therefore imperative to the successful pursuit of peacebuilding.
- Topic:
- Population, Peacekeeping, Youth, Peace, and Casualties
- Political Geography:
- Africa
396. Emerging Security Challenges: framing the policy content
- Author:
- Graeme P. Herd, Detlef Puhl, and Sean Costigan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Security challenges are ‘emergent’ or ‘emerging’ when the wider community of security experts begin to discuss and debate a given issue as a prelude to developing, resourcing and then implementing appropriate policy responses. Some security challenges are "ab ovo" – they emerge onto the policy landscape at incredible speed, complete and entire, rather than slowly over a long gestation period. For some institutions, the ‘real’ emerging challenge is defined as much by institutional and cultural change needed to enable more efficient, effective and legitimate policy response as it is by the inherent complexity of the challenges themselves. Highest priority challenges (e.g. climatological, nuclear, biological, health and agriculture-related) are those that threaten the survival of people and institutions. Second order priority challenges undermine essential ways of life and the fabric of state-society relations, the nature of democratic governance and the integrity of the ‘social contract’.
- Topic:
- Security and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Global
397. Strengthening local and national infrastructures for peace in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho and South Sudan
- Author:
- Nontobeko Zondi and Wandile Langa
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- In 2016, ACCORD outlined its 2017-2021 Six-Pillar Strategy, which seeks to contribute to sustainable peace, security and development in Africa by mitigating conflict. One of the critical pillars of the Strategy is Pillar 2, which focuses on strengthening local and national infrastructures for peace. This Policy and Practice Brief aims to reflect on the practical experiences, challenges and lessons of ACCORD in advancing the concept of local and national capacity for peace, in the period 2018 to 2019. The preliminary reflections are drawn from ACCORD’s work in four countries, namely, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Lesotho and South Sudan.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies, Peacekeeping, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Burundi, Lesotho, and Democratic Republic of Congo
398. The WTO's Existential Crisis: How to Salvage Its Ability to Settle Trade Disputes
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott and Euijin Jung
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- US refusal to allow the appointment of new judges (or members) to the World Trade Organization’s Appellate Body—a key component of its renowned dispute settlement system—has pushed the organization into an existential crisis. The Appellate Body no longer has the requisite number of members to hear new cases on appeal. The terms of two of the three remaining members have expired, leaving the WTO without an appeal function. US officials charge that certain Appellate Body decisions on WTO dispute panel rulings have expanded WTO obligations and constrained WTO rights—what trade lawyers call “judicial overreach”—and so they have blocked the appointment of new Appellate Body members until other WTO countries address US complaints. Schott and Jung analyze the WTO cases brought against the United States and find that the problem of judicial overreach seems to surface primarily in a subset of US losses in antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) cases that target specific methods of calculating dumping margins. They warn that disabling the whole appellate system is a disproportionate response to the specific problem. It will weaken enforcement of WTO obligations and undermine prospects for negotiations to update the WTO rulebook, thus corroding the rules-based trading system, one that has been modeled on US law and practice. A better approach would be to exempt AD/CVD cases from appellate review (while still subjecting them to dispute panel rulings). This targeted change in the WTO Appellate Body process, coupled with procedural reforms already advanced in proposals that have been widely supported by WTO members, could mitigate US concerns and allow the Appellate Body to be repopulated.
- Topic:
- Government, World Trade Organization, Law, Judiciary, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
399. Hyperinflation in Venezuela: A Stabilization Handbook
- Author:
- Gonzalo Huertas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The unrelenting surge in prices in Venezuela has crippled the economy and deepened the humanitarian crisis there. Huertas lays out a feasible stabilization plan to stop Venezuela’s hyperinflation. The extent of the humanitarian crisis and shortage of basic goods and services suggests that, on the fiscal side, a stabilization plan should focus primarily on reallocating rather than reducing spending. The authorities should avoid austerity policies and instead spend on taking care of the Venezuelan people. Stabilizing the price level while providing relief to the country’s population would require significant financial assistance from the rest of the world, so it is critical that Venezuela secure strong financial support from the international community. Successful stabilization requires a credible plan to transition to a responsible fiscal policy, the financial resources to carry it out, and the political will to sustain it.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Finance, Inflation, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
400. Global E-Commerce Talks Stumble on Data Issues, Privacy, and More
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyaou (Lucy) Lu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In early 2019, several important members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) submitted noteworthy proposals in a realm of international commerce that has evolved faster than rules to govern it: e-commerce or digital trade. While countries agree on less controversial subjects like banning unsolicited commercial electronic messages, the three leading WTO members—China, the European Union, and the United States—have big differences in their approaches to more challenging issues: data flows, data localization, privacy invasions by data collectors, transfer of source code, imposition of customs duties and internet taxes, and internet censorship. Their differing viewpoints lead Hufbauer and Lu to conclude that the prospect of reaching a high-level WTO e-commerce agreement is not promising. To reach an agreement, either most of the contentious issues must be dropped or the number of participating countries must be sharply reduced. A WTO accord, even of low ambition, would have value if only to establish basic digital norms on matters such as banning unsolicited commercial messages and protecting online consumers from fraudulent practices. A more ambitious accord covering the controversial issues should be negotiated in bilateral and/or plurilateral/regional pacts rather than in the WTO.
- Topic:
- Economics, World Trade Organization, Finance, Privacy, and Data
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, United States of America, and European Union