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3892. Tchad: sortir du piège pétrolier
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Depuis 2003, l'exploitation du pétrole a contribué lourdement à la détérioration de la gouvernance interne au Tchad, menant à une succession de crises politiques et de rébellions. Les retombées financières du pétrole – 53 millions de barils rapportant 1,2 milliards de dollars à l'Etat en 2007 – ont attisé les appétits au sein du régime qui ont, à leur tour, nourri des dissensions et débouché sur des rébellions rapidement soutenues par le voisin soudanais. Les revenus du pétrole ont par ailleurs donné au président Idriss Déby les moyens de rejeter tout dialogue politique véritable, et de répondre aux menaces de renversement venues du Soudan par le surarmement. L'enthousiasme suscité par l'exploitation du pétrole a fait place à un désenchantement généralisé. Pour sortir de ce cercle vicieux et susciter les conditions d'une stabilisation durable du pays, le gouvernement tchadien doit redéfinir un consensus national autour de la gestion des revenus pétroliers, et ses partenaires principaux, la France, les Etats-Unis et la Chine, doivent conditionner leur soutien au régime à cette politique, tout en oeuvrant à la stabilisation complémentaire de ses relations avec le Soudan.
- Topic:
- Corruption and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Africa
3893. Indonesia: Noordin Top's Support Base
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- More than a month after the 17 July 2009 hotel bombings in Jakarta, Noordin Mohammed Top remains at large, but his network is proving to be larger and more sophisticated than previously thought. Not only was it responsible for coordinated bombings at two luxury hotels in the heart of Jakarta's business district, but it also was apparently contemplating a car bomb attack on President Yudhoyono's residence. As more information comes to light, it looks increasingly likely that Noordin sought and received Middle Eastern funding. While the extent of foreign involvement this time around remains unclear, recruitment in Indonesia has proved disturbingly easy. The salafi jihadi ideology that legitimises attacks on the U.S. and its allies, and Muslims who associate with them, remains confined to a tiny fringe, but that fringe includes disaffected factions of many different radical groups and impressionable youths with no history of violence.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Indonesia, Asia, and Jakarta
3894. Turkey and the Palestinian Question
- Author:
- Bülent Aras
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The Palestinian question is a central issue at the both state and society level in Turkey. Thousands of Turkish people protested the Israeli aggression against the Palestinians in Gaza this month in different parts of Turkey. Turkish PM Erdogan responded to the Israeli action by labeling it an act of disrespect to Turkey and suspended Turkey's facilitating role for indirect talks between Israel and Syria. Erdogan also initiated an intensive diplomatic campaign at the regional and international levels, utilizing Turkey's seat in the United Nations Security Council. Turkey calls for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and urges a compromise between rival Palestinian groups. Finally, the war on Gaza will have far-reaching consequences for the future of the region as well as for Turkish-Israeli relations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, and Palestine
3895. Macedonia's Name: Breaking the Deadlock
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Macedonia is a relative success story in a region scarred by unresolved statehood and territory issues. International engagement has, since the 2001 conflict with an ethnic Albanian insurgency, brought progress in integrating Albanians into political life. This has been underpinned by the promise of European Union (EU) and NATO integration, goals that unite ethnic Macedonians and Albanians. But the main NATO/EU strategy for stabilising Macedonia and the region via enlargement was derailed in 2008 by the dispute with Greece over the country's name. Athens claims that, by calling itself “Macedonia”, it appropriates part of the Hellenic heritage and implies a claim against Greece's northern province. At summits it blocked Macedonian membership in NATO and EU accession talks until the issue is settled. Mystifying to outsiders, the dispute touches existential nerves, especially in Macedonia, and has serious regional implications. The parties need to rebuild trust; member states need to press both to compromise, especially Greece to respect its commitment not to block Skopje in international organisations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Macedonia, and Albania
3896. North Caucasus Weekly - Volume X, Issue 1
- Author:
- Valeriy Dzutsev
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- IN THIS ISSUE: Website: Few Improvements in the North Caucasus in 2008 Violence Haunts a New Year in Ingushetia and Dagestan Chechens Protest Parole for Budanov Spain Extradites Chechen Terror Suspect A Look Back at Insurgent Activities in the North Caucasus in 2008By Mairbek Vatchagaev Ingushetia's New Leader Hints at a Merger with ChechnyaBy Valeriy Dzutsev.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3897. Engaging Syria? Lessons from the French Experience
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- How is one to engage Damascus? As the incoming U.S. administration examines the future of its relationship with Syria, seemingly persuaded that an improvement in bilateral ties and an Israeli-Syrian agreement could fundamentally modify the regional landscape, France's recent experience offers useful lessons. Determined to engage in dialogue - but also ready to break off if the other side was uncooperative - and creative in approach, while fixing it within a clearly defined framework of objectives, President Sarkozy also knew how to seize on unexpected opportunities when they presented themselves.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Syria
3898. North Caucasus Weekly - Volume X, Issue 2
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In this issue: Chechen Who Accused Kadyrov of Torture Murdered in Vienna Kadyrov Denounces Parole for Budanov Human Rights Watch's Annual Report Details North Caucasus Abuses Explosion Destroys Building in Nazran; Cause Uncertain North Caucasus Insurgency Attracting Mainly Young and Committed Members By Mairbek Vatchagaev Is Krymshamkhalov's Murder a Political Assassination?
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3899. Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War
- Author:
- Gilles Dorronsoro
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- After seven years of war, the international community has failed to create the conditions for a sustainable Afghan state. The reality is that the international coalition now has limited resources and a narrow political time frame to create lasting Afghan institutions. Yet building such institutions is our only realistic exit strategy. The debate in Washington and European capitals has recently centered on how many more troops will be sent to Afghanistan in 2009 as part of a military surge. Such a tactical adjustment is unlikely to make much of a difference in a country where the basic population-to-troops ratio is estimated at approximately 430 people per foreign soldier.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
3900. Avoiding Mutual Misunderstanding: Sino-U.S. Relations and the New Administration
- Author:
- Tianjian Shi and Meredith Wen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- After the election of Barack Obama as president, Carnegie's Beijing Office assembled a group of leading scholars of international relations to discuss their expectations of the new administration. This policy brief conveys their opinions on various aspects of Sino-American relations and on America foreign policy in general.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Beijing