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3781. Oil, Gas and International Insecurity: Tackling a Self-fuelling Fire

Author:
Daniel Litvin
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In the United States, European Union and Asia, fears about dependence on oil and gas imports from unstable regions have become a major theme of political debate. This paper provides a high-level and historical perspective on this complex issue. Dependence on oil and gas imports raises real economic- and political-security issues for many countries. Neither the global economic crisis nor climate change policies - both of which look set to restrain oil and gas demand - will solve the problem entirely. In fact, over the next few decades it is likely to become worse.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Asia

3782. Trade and the Global Economic Crisis: Immediate Challenges and Long-term Threats

Author:
Jim Rollo and Peter Holmes
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The collapse of world trade is threatening to create a negative feedback loop to the global economy. Some countries have seen their trade fall by 30–50% in the year to February 2009, a bigger fall than between 1929 and 1930. Annual figures for world trade in 2008 show a big fall in the fourth quarter – a trend that has been accelerating. The world's trade ministers have failed to get the Doha Development Agenda back on track, despite direct instructions from the G20 leaders to do so quickly after the November summit in Washington, DC. This failure sends a very powerful negative signal about the G20's lack of policy coordination on even bigger issues. There is a two-way interaction between trade and the macro-economy at a national and global level. The current crisis is threatening countries that rely on export-led growth, a strategy that has led billions out of poverty. It is imperative for there to be recognition that the current shrinkage in global trade is a macro-economic problem requiring macro-economic solutions, and that the necessary actions must be coordinated.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy

3783. North Africa: The Hidden Risks to Regional Stability

Author:
Claire Spencer
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
North Africa may not be as stable as it looks: socio-economic and political pressures are fracturing the consensus between governments and governed and may overtake terrorism and criminality as the region's main destabilizing forces. With political leadership in the region effectively a lifelong position, the growth of authoritarianism is undermining the prospects for achieving political and economic liberalization. Despite the worsening global economic climate, a window of opportunity exists to accelerate socially sensitive and productive domestic investment and open space for greater autonomous political and economic development. Success depends on renegotiating the social contracts on which North Africa's states are based. A broadening of participation, above all through the extension of legal employment, targeted investment on education, health and skills, and the establishment of independent legal and regulatory frameworks, will go some way towards addressing socio-economic stresses. A change in the political environment, however, requires a re-evaluation of how the region's security climate is seen from outside, with adjustments in the kind of support given to regional governments by its key international partners, the European Union and the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Islam, and International Security
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Arabia

3784. Immigration in Europe at a Time of Economic Hardship

Author:
Toby Archer
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The global recession is resetting the context of the immigration debate across Europe. Immigration is one of the most visible manifestations of globalization for large numbers of Europeans. Globalization is a disruptive process challenging long held social assumptions and beliefs. It creates resistance, and concern over immigration is part of this. The recession is amplifying this effect significantly. The costs and benefits of globalization have never been equally shared, either within states or amongst them. Certain social groups fear immigration more than others, particularly in labour competition. The recession is leading to national or nationalist priorities becoming more popular and xenophobia can result. Political leaders understand this and even those who actively try to explain the advantages of immigration still tend to discuss it unhelpfully as a security issue. Immigration is a legally complex set of interrelated but different issues. The public discourse tends to not separate them, leading to all immigration issues being politically loaded. The EU plays an important role, but because borders and who can cross them is so closely linked to notions of sovereignty, the Union takes a secondary position to national policies.
Topic:
Globalization, Migration, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe

3785. Czech Point: A Mid-Term Evaluation of an On-Going Small State Presidency

Author:
Tiia Lehtonen
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Czech EU Presidency has now reached its mid-term. It can be reasonably argued that the change of Presidency came at a challenging time for both the EU and the Czech Republic itself. The initial priorities of the Czech Presidency, the 'three Es', were ambitious to say the least, and the provisional results in implementing them are consequently modest at best. The internal disorder of the Czech administration has had a visible and rather negative impact on its competence to run a successful Presidency. The lack of a genuine consensus on various EU issues within the Czech political elite and the autonomy of President Klaus have resulted in problems in terms of satisfactorily driving forward the individual priorities and the Union as a whole. As calls for protectionism have increased in the light of the recession, it has become ever more difficult for the Czech Republic to take a leading position in the EU within the realm of the economic crisis and to find common grounds for all member states. The first European Council meeting under the Czech Presidency will be held on 19th and 20th March in Brussels. Another significant opportunity for the Czechs to exert an influence will be during the G20 Summit in early April.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Czech Republic

3786. Haiti: Saving the Environment, Preventing Instability and Conflict

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Reversing a decades-long trend of environmental destruction is essential to Haiti's development, social and economic stability and, ultimately, security. Instability and violent conflict are not attributable solely to environmental degradation. But they are made more likely by the latter's interaction with such factors as weak institutions and governance, political fragility, pervasive and extreme poverty, vulnerability to natural disasters, rapid population growth, urban overcrowding and social and economic inequality. Concerted national effort and international support is required to stop deforestation and land erosion; reduce energy shortages and charcoal dependence; address rural and urban pollution, including the absence of a solid waste collection and recycling system; and strengthen an inadequate capacity to cope with natural disasters.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Post Colonialism

3787. Nigeria: Seizing the Moment in the Niger Delta

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The report of the government-constituted Technical Committee on the Niger Delta, submitted to Nigeria's President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua on 1 December 2008, offers an opportunity to reduce violent conflict significantly and begin longer-term regional development in the oil-rich region. The government needs to respond urgently and positively, in particular by accepting a third-party mediator to facilitate discussions of amnesty and demobilisation of militants, in order to dispel growing misgivings in the Delta, save the region from further violence and organised criminality, and ensure Nigeria's continued reliability as a leading source of energy for the world.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Oil, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

3788. Just peace? Peacebuilding and rule of law in Africa: Lessons for policymakers

Author:
Olga Martin-Ortega, Chandra Lekha Sriram, and Johanna Herman
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
Rule of law promotion is integral to peacebuilding, but not always well integrated It is important to distinguish between technical delivery of rule of law assistance and access to justice as perceived by the population Rule of law promotion and transitional justice may be complementary, or competitive Despite emphasis on the formal sector, informal justice processes are often most accessible to the vast majority Such informal processes may be transformed both by conflict and by peacebuilding activities Emphasis on state institutions in rule of law promotion can inadvertently undermine equal access to justice Given these challenges, the international community faces serious dilemmas about whom to engage, and particularly whether to engage the informal sector at all.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Peace Studies, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

3789. Indonesia: Radicalisation of the "Palembang Group"

Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Indonesia has earned well-deserved praise for its handling of home-grown extremism, but the problem has not gone away. In April 2009, ten men involved in a jihadi group in Palembang, South Sumatra, were sent to prison on terrorism charges for killing a Christian teacher and planning more ambitious attacks. Their history provides an unusually detailed case study of radicalisation - the process by which law-abiding individuals become willing to use violence to achieve their goals. The sobering revelation from Palembang is how easy that transformation can be if the right ingredients are present: a core group of individuals, a charismatic leader, motivation and opportunity. Another ingredient, access to weapons, is important but not essential: the Palembang group carried out its first attack with a hammer and only later moved to making bombs.
Topic:
Political Violence and Islam
Political Geography:
Asia

3790. Which Diaspora for Whose Development? Some Critical Questions about the Roles of African Diaspora Organizations as Development Actorse

Author:
Oliver Bakewell
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Today there is great interest in diasporas' role in development across Africa and much enthusiasm for identifying policies that can maximise their contribution. In this new DIIS Brief Oliver Bakewell, senior research officer at the International Migration Institute, University of Oxford, raises four questions that challenge uncritical enthusiasm for diasporas' increased involvement in development: 1) Who is in the diaspora? 2) Where is the diaspora? 3) How does diaspora engagement affect accountability? And 4) What ideas of development are being used?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Migration
Political Geography:
Africa