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3321. Setback for Iran's Opposition: Khamenei's Hardline Reinforced

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A few hours after the official demonstration marking the February 11 anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated, "Was the presence of tens of millions of motivated and aware people in the festival of the thirty-first anniversary of revolution enough to awaken [to their mistakes] the internal enemies and deceived individuals who sometimes hypocritically speak of 'the people'?" Khamenei had spent months worrying that the opposition Green Movement would hijack the anniversary. Yesterday, he seemed to regain his self-confidence by proving that he could manage Tehran's streets. In light of this development, how will the Supreme Leader deal with both Iran's political crisis and the nuclear dossier?
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

3322. How to Assess Political Fissures in Iran

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji, David Cvach, and Ali Alfoneh
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The means for assessing political fissures in Iran are by nature very limited and have become even more so since the June 12, 2009, election. Independent studies and data on the Iranian public, such as opinion polling, are sparse and not useful, and the Iranian press follows very strict red lines in discussing politics. Western diplomats in Iran are also restrained from understanding the political environment due to the oppressively formal nature of relations with Iranian officials, who rarely discuss sensitive issues with their Western counterparts. The latter are thus forced to gather information anecdotally, in private meetings with business leaders, cultural elites, and journalists -- hardly a sufficient sample of Iranian society.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Washington, and Middle East

3323. Khamenei and the Politics of Indecision

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
February 11, the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, is the most important official holiday in Iran. The public faces of the opposition Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, have called for street demonstrations to mark the occasion. Meanwhile, government officials at every level have warned against such protests, threatening tough action against any participants. In this tense atmosphere, what are the prospects that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will agree to political compromise?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Islam
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

3324. Serious Play: War Games Explore Options on Iran

Author:
Jeffrey White and Loring White
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
What if Iran's hardline leadership emerges from the current confrontations at home strengthened and emboldened? If so, the nuclear issue will be back with a vengeance. And three recent war games focused on the Iranian nuclear weapons issue suggest that the prospects for halting the regime's progress toward nuclear weapons are not good.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, and War
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

3325. Traditional Dispute Resolution and Stability in Afghanistan

Author:
John Dempsey and Noah Coburn
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Stability in Afghanistan will remain elusive unless disputes between individuals and among communities can be resolved through peaceful and equitable means. However, state justice institutions are barely functioning in much of the country and are incapable of meeting many justice and dispute resolution needs of Afghans. Instead, the majority of Afghans turn to traditional justice mechanisms—including tribal councils and village and religious leaders—to address both civil and criminal disputes. In many parts of the country, including areas recently cleared of insurgents, the best way to make signi_cant, visible, short-term (12 to 18 months) gains in peacefully resolving disputes is to work with community-based structures. USIP has drawn important lessons from its work with Afghan partners to implement pilot programs exploring links between the state and traditional justice systems in four provinces across the country (in Nangarhar, Khost, Paktia and Herat). Programs designed to create or strengthen existing links between traditional justice bodies and state institutions can build mutual trust and harness the strengths of each. Donor-funded traditional justice programs need to involve the Afghan government while also accounting for the practical needs of communities to settle disputes in line with their own traditions and procedures, as well as Afghanistan's laws and human rights norms.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

3326. Congress and Parliaments in Security Sector Reform

Author:
Robert M. Perito
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Legislative oversight of the security sector is crucial to ensure that security policies and expenditures are undertaken with full transparency, accountability and concern for other national priorities and popular attitudes. This is important in conflict states, particularly during peace or stability operations. Establishing legislative oversight is difficult in conflict countries because of the absence of historical tradition, the complexity of security agencies, the technical nature of the issues, secrecy laws and the lack of expertise among parliamentarians and their staffs. The U.S. Congress provides a model for effective legislative oversight of the security sector for other countries to emulate. Congress has developed the legal authorities and the traditions required to form an effective partnership with the Defense and Justice departments, the U.S. military forces and civilian security services. Due to the importance of legislative oversight of the security sector to the democratic process, the U.S. Congress provides advice and training to foreign parliaments and parliamentarians in security sector reform. Congress has important partnership arrangements with parliaments in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Georgia, Kosovo and other conflict countries.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Georgia

3327. Delays Will Not Improve Afghan Elections

Author:
Scott Worden
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The presidential and provincial council elections held in Afghanistan in August 2009 were marred by irregularities and fraud, leading voters and candidates to question the fairness and utility of the democratic process there. The Afghan government announced in late January that it will delay Parliamentary elections until September 2010—several months beyond the deadline set by Afghanistan's constitution. The extra time is needed to make adequate logistical preparations, but little has been done so far to reform electoral institutions or policies to prevent a repeat of the problems of the 2009 elections. Without signi_cant changes in the personnel and policies of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)—the constitutional body responsible for overseeing all electoral processes— the 2010 election is likely to fall below international standards and risks undermining government (and international) legitimacy at a critical period for the counterinsurgency strategy. In addition, signi_ cant long-term reforms, including a wholesale revision of the voter registry, must be initiated now to ensure that the district council and other future Afghan elections are credible and acceptable.
Topic:
Democratization, Sovereignty, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

3328. Time for a Peace Paradigm in Colombia

Author:
Virginia M. Bouvier
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since the advent of Plan Colombia in 2000, U.S. policymakers have sought to help Colombian governments win their multiple wars against insurgents, drugs and terrorism. Conventional wisdom had suggested that pursuing these paths concurrently would lead to peace and security. Colombia today is farther from a peace settlement than it has been in years. With national elections scheduled for the first half of 2010 and presidential candidates yet to be defined, peace does not appear on the government's public policy agenda and it has yet to materialize as a campaign issue. Faith in a military victory appears deeply entrenched at a popular level. Illegal armed groups are retrenching and adapting to years of sustained military offensives and the increased capacity of Colombia's armed forces. While security indicators had largely improved, violence in major cities last year jumped sharply, and internal displacement has reached crisis proportions. Colombia's conflict is increasingly affecting the Andean neighborhood, sending hundreds of thousands of Colombians across the borders. Patterns of violence and intimidation are emerging as illegal armed groups increasingly settle into these border regions. Sporadic incursions and incidents at the border have ratcheted up rhetoric and sparked diplomatic standoffs and movement of troops. A recent bilateral military accord between Colombia and the United States has also exacerbated tensions in the hemisphere. Policymakers increasingly question whether staying the course in Colombia is in the U.S. best interests. Some are calling for an overhaul of U.S. policy. Peace and regional security are integral to the multitude of U.S. interests in Colombia, and they should no longer be subsumed to other strategic interests. It is time to seek peace as a priority. This approach should emphasize respect for human rights and the rule of law; support for truth, justice and reparations for the victims of armed conflict; and the facilitation of processes conducive to peace as a key policy objective.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, and Latin America

3329. Peacebuilding through Health Among Israelis and Palestinians

Author:
Leonard Rubenstein and Anjalee Kohli
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The concept of “peace through health” or “health as a bridge for peace” has been in existence for decades, but remains ambiguous. The idea is best understood as cross-border or cross-group initiatives toward increasing understanding, cooperation, and trust, addressing health concerns of populations and mobilizing health professionals as advocates for peace. Such initiatives can potentially contribute to building a foundation for state-building and economic development. But few rigorous evaluations of peace through health initiatives have been conducted, and the limitations of the idea must be recognized. Peacemaking is an inherently political process, and health-related initiatives are unlikely to contribute directly to peace settlements. Palestinian and Israeli health professionals have a long history of cross-border cooperation in health, including collaboration in disease surveillance, training and advocacy for health. Cooperation is increasingly difficult because of ongoing travel restrictions on Palestinians in the West Bank, because the initiatives are increasingly seen by Palestinians as political in nature—even as a tacit endorsement of the Israeli occupation—and because many Palestin¬ian health professionals prefer to invest their energy in building an effective health system in the West Bank independent of Israel. Efforts to foster cooperation through health initiatives—especially in situations where differentials are so great as in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—must be directed toward meeting real health needs of the population, be founded on mutuality, and focus on building effective systems.
Political Geography:
Israel

3330. Negotiating Sudan's Post-Referendum Arrangements

Author:
Jon Temin
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
With Southern Sudan's referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or secede approaching, it is vital that the international community encourage and support negotiations on postreferendum arrangements, which include issues ranging from wealth sharing to citizenship rights to security arrangements. Good coordination among the international community will be essential. A single mediator with a clear and strong mandate should lead negotiations on postreferendum arrangements, supported by a contact group or group of friends that can insert targeted pressures and incentives into the process. The mediator needs to be strong enough to prevent “forum shopping” and contain or co-opt spoilers. States and non-state actors that wish to play a central role in negotiations on post-referendum arrangements should demonstrate a long term commitment to Sudan and to overseeing implementation of any agreement. Negotiations on post-referendum arrangements and the ongoing negotiations on Darfur should be kept separate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan