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3251. Le Nord-ouest du Tchad: la prochaine zone à haut risque ?

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Depuis plus de cinq ans, alors que la rébellion armée de l'Est du Tchad et la crise du Darfour focalisent l'attention, le Nord-ouest du pays a suscité peu d'intérêts. Cependant, l'ampleur de plus en plus grande du trafic international de drogues et du terrorisme dans la bande sahélo-saharienne, l'émergence d'un islamisme combattant dans les pays voisins, l'intensification des ressentiments intercommunautaires et l'érosion des mécanismes de justice traditionnelle, la sous-administration et l'abandon qui caractérisent la politique gouvernementale à l'égard de cette région, risquent de devenir des facteurs de déstabilisation. Les autorités tchadiennes doivent changer de mode de gouvernance dans cette région et désamorcer les différentes sources de tensions ou les risques de déstabilisation avant que ceux-ci n'atteignent un seuil critique.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3252. ASEAN Community Building: Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Civilian Protection in Southeast Asia

Author:
Mely Caballero-Anthony and Holly Haywood
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
Initiatives introduced under the various pillars of the envisaged ASEAN Community, notably the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC), represent potential entry points for building a more effective framework for civilian protection in Southeast Asia. This policy brief attempts to delineate some ways by which the opportunities presented by the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR) and the ASEAN Commission on the Promotion and Protection of the Rights of Women and Children (ACWC) initiatives, as well as the momentum surrounding the development of a regional capacity for ensuring peace and stability, could be advanced.
Topic:
Gender Issues and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

3253. Bridge over the Dniestr: Confidence-Building Measures in Moldova

Author:
Walter Kemp
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Damaged by shelling during the 1992 conflict, the Gura Bicului Bridge, which spans the Dniestr river, was reconstructed in 2001 with money from the European Union. The bridge—along the main highway between the Black Sea and the Baltic coast—should facilitate trade and contacts between Moldova and the break-away region of Transdniestria. But it has never been reopened: only pedestrians and bicyclists are allowed to cross. It stands as a potent symbol of how hard it has been, for the past twenty years, to bridge the two sides of the Dniestr.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, and Asia

3254. Security developments in East Asia: what implications for the EU?

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
East Asia is home to some of the most important trading partners of the Union. China is foremost among these, ranking second only to the US - in 2009, EU-China trade totalled a massive €296 billion - while the EU is China's most important trading partner. Japan is the sixth-largest trade partner of the EU - in 2009, EU-Japan trade was almost €92 billion. South Korea is the EU's eighth-largest trade partner and the EU has become South Korea's second largest export destination - total trade in 2009 was above €53 billion. Furthermore, on 6 October 2010 the EU and South Korea signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) which is the most ambitious bilateral trade agreement ever negotiated by the EU, and the first with an Asian country.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, Israel, Asia, and South Korea

3255. The Arab Revolt: Roots and Perspectives

Author:
Vicken Cheterian
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Arab revolt that started in Tunisia and over¬threw the reign of Zein El-Abedeen Ben Ali is taking the form of a huge wave. The regime of Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, the central state of the Arab World, followed suit. Uprising in Libya continues, in spite of attempts by the Kaddhafi regime to kill it in blood and fire. Ali Abdallah Saleh of Yemen declared that he will not seek a new mandate, a concession which only emboldened both opposition and youth revolt. King Abdallah of Jordan sacked the unpopular government of Samir Rifai, and named Maruf Bakhit as the new prime minister and asked him to bring “true political reforms”. In a word, the entire Arab World is facing an unprecedented wave of revolt.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Economics, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

3256. Myanmar's Post-Election Landscape

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The November 2010 elections in Myanmar were not free and fair and the country has not escaped authoritarian rule. Predictably, in such a tightly controlled poll, the regime's own Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won a landslide victory leaving the military elite still in control. Together with the quarter of legislative seats reserved for soldiers, this means there will be little political space for opposition members in parliament. The new government that has been formed, and which will assume power in the coming weeks, also reflects the continued dominance of the old order with the president and one of the two vice presidents drawn from its ranks and a number of cabinet ministers recycled.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Myanmar

3257. What Is In Haiti's Future?

Author:
Robert Maguire and Tara Nesvaderani
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Haiti's slow pace of recovery from the January 2010 earthquake is due to the magnitude of the calamity, pre-existing conditions, institutional weaknesses, resource limitations, a cholera epidemic and disputed elections. The pace of new cholera infections and deaths has begun to slow, although infections and death rates remain high in rural areas and risk of renewed high infection rates is significant. Following protracted controversy after presidential and parliamentary elections held in late November 2010, second round runoffs have been scheduled for March 20th with President Rene Préval remaining in office through mid-May. The unexpected return to Haiti in mid-January of former dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier and the potential return of exiled former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide have added to the country's turmoil and uncertainty. Scenarios for Haiti's future are based not only on the international community's ability to provide needed support, but also on the ability of Haiti's leaders and people to successfully elect a credible national government.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

3258. Lessons from Haiti and Beyond: Report from the 2010 International Conference on Crisis Mapping

Author:
Jessica Henzelman, D. Roz Sewell, Jen Ziemke, and Patrick Meier
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Crisis mapping is a growing field that seeks to leverage mobile platforms, computational models, geospatial technologies, crowd sourced data, and visual analytics to power effective early warning for rapid response to complex humanitarian emergencies. The second International Conference on Crisis Mapping convened from October 1 to 3, 2010, to discuss lessons learned from past and present initiatives and strategies for moving the field forward. Over 250 participants from major international organizations, the technology community, universities, and NGOs attended. Some of the main themes from the conference included the need to design environment-appropriate technologies, improve analysis tools and systems, create standards for the emergent field, engage local populations, and gain a better understanding of the challenges of operating in complex political environments.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Natural Disasters, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

3259. Defusing Egypt's Demographic Time Bomb

Author:
Raymond Gilpin, Amal A. Kandeel, and Paul Sullivan
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Limited opportunities for economic progress and political expression helped force Egypt's youthful population on the streets and precipitated the demise of long-time leader Hosni Mubarak. Prospects for stability are linked to the government's ability to address youth employment—a core demand of the protesters. The January/February 2011 protests could be the tip of the iceberg. Robust and sustained action is needed to improve human security, starting with employment and income generation opportunities. An effective economic transition in Egypt need not be a zero-sum game. Done correctly, employment-based economic restructuring that focuses on the most vulnerable (and volatile) segments of the population could lay the foundation for a stronger, stable and more peaceful Egypt. The next steps in Egypt's revolution will tackle the difficult task of expanding economic opportunity and providing space for more representative, accountable and participatory governance. Fundamentally, this would require the Egyptian government and military to progressively cede control of the levers of economic power. Employment creation that focuses on the youth is not a silver bullet and will not guarantee success on its own. It will, however, broaden the constituency for reform by making Egypt's youth bulge more involved in shaping the destiny of the country's 82 million citizens.
Topic:
Demographics and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

3260. Covering and Countering Extremism in Pakistan's Developing Media

Author:
Hannah Byam and Christopher Neu
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
With a rise in terrorist activity spreading fear through highly publicized attacks, Pakistan's media landscape has increasingly been used as a battleground between those seeking to promote violent conflict and others seeking to manage or deter it. Pakistan's media community has not yet developed an adequate or widely accepted strategy for responding to this context of persistent extremism and conflict. The rapid rise of extremist radio stations in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) provinces has paralleled an increase in terrorist attacks, facilitated by affordable access to FM radio, loose government regulation of broadcast media and militant control of pockets in KPK and FATA. Negative media attitudes toward the Pakistan-U.S. relationship often reflect national political differences and market incentives for sensationalist coverage. These attitudes can be transformed through changes in the diplomatic relationship between the countries based on open communication rather than institutional media reform.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Terrorism, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and Asia