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3221. The Five Futures of Cyber Conflict and Cooperation

Author:
Jason Healey
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The word cyberspace is nearly thirty years old, and during that time, academics, theorists, and strategists have been considering how conflict will unfold in this new domain .As yet, though, little has been published on what kinds of different futures may await us .For example, many writers seem to imply that cyberspace itself is relatively static, when it is in fact constantly transformed through changes in usage and technology. Indeed, today's generation of digital natives has never known a world without the Internet, and their experience of cyberspace—especially in terms of security, privacy, and collaboration—will be very different from that of previous generations weaned on mainframes, modems, desktop computers, and AOL. If cyberspace is different and younger generations use it differently, then future conflict and cooperation in cyberspace may be unlike anything experienced or even envisioned by Cold War-era thinkers and strategists.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:
North America

3222. Naval Future: International Preponderance Through Naval Partnership

Author:
Martin Murphy and Lee Willett
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In 2005 US Navy ship numbers fell lower than at any point since 1916 and little has changed since then. The Royal Navy now has fewer ships and sailors than Nelson had at Trafalgar. It is of course true that counting hulls is no longer a reliable way of assessing naval power yet numbers matter.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, International Security, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States

3223. The EU should not shy away from setting CO2-related targets for transport

Author:
Christian Egenhofer
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Transport is the only sector in the EU in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Unless this trend can be reversed, the EU will have little chance of reaching its objectives in the context of global obligations on industrialised countries to reduce emissions between 80% and 95% by 2050 compared to 1990. Many different solutions exist, including, for example, new technology such as electrification of road transport, modal shift, optimising existing technologies and policy measures and more radical measures such as binding GHG emissions targets. While there is some merit to all of these approaches, this Policy Brief argues that current EU policy thinking is not (yet) bold enough to credibly tackle the GHG emissions challenge from transport.
Topic:
Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

3224. One question, any answers? The EU's role in solving the Kurdish question in Turkey

Author:
Johanna Nykänen
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Kurdish question in Turkey is one of the most pressing issues facing the EU in its near neighbourhood. It involves a rights-based dimension caused by the lack of cultural rights and freedoms for the Kurds, and a security dimension caused by the violent conflict between the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Turkish military. It has the potential to destabilise Turkey as well as its Kurdish-inhabited neighbours of Iran, Iraq and Syria, with ramifications for Turkey's EU membership negotiations and the EU 's foreign-policy goals in the region. The EU is also directly intertwined with the issue, not least because of its large and active Kurdish diaspora. As such, the EU has a major stake in finding a solution to the question.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

3225. Southeast Asia and the Outcomes of the COP16

Author:
J. Jackson Ewing and Irene A. Kuntjoro
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded its annual meeting in December 2010, reaching agreements that are relevant for the climate strategies and policies of states and regions worldwide. This policy brief explores the deliberations and outcomes of this 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) as they relate to Southeast Asian responses to climate change at the community, state and regional levels. This brief proceeds in three sections. Section I reviews the diplomatic processes of the COP16, examining how they diverge from the approaches of the recent past, and critically assesses the agreements realised at the conference. Section II addresses the specific implications that these developments have for Southeast Asian countries and the region at large, paying particular attention to the unique vulnerabilities experienced to varying degrees throughout the region. Section III offers strategic recommendations relating to the current state of international climate negotiations and the existing policies and needs of Southeast Asian stakeholders.
Topic:
Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United Nations, Mexico, and Southeast Asia

3226. Playing Ostrich: Lessons Learned from South Africa's Response to Terrorism

Author:
Hussein Solomon
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
South Africa has come to occupy a central node in global terror networks in recent years. Despite growing evidence of the risks posed, South Africa has been slow to adopt and implement a more robust counterterrorism policy. Creating the political will to address this threat will require independent oversight of national intelligence efforts and an objective assessment of the terrorism risk in order to make counterterrorism a national priority.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, London, and Zambia

3227. A missed opportunity: Mining for sustainable development

Author:
France Bourgouin
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Donors and NGOs are missing an opportunity: they should be helping to turn large-scale commercial mining activities into sustainable development for poor countries that are rich in minerals. Instead of shying away, they should engage their development expertise and technical assistance and join forces with mining companies and local governments. This would help increase the spill-over of economic gains into local societies in a just and sustainable manner.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

3228. Growing Jasmines: What should the EU do in Tunisia now?

Author:
Fabrizio Tassinari, Ulla Holm, and Helle Malmvig
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The EU misread the situation in Tunisia. However, the fact that the EU approach did not work as expected should not lead now to a hasty overhaul of the existing policy framework. But the EU will have to be clearer, smarter and stricter about how its policy instruments are implemented.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Arabia, and North Africa

3229. Bosnia: Europe's Time to Act

Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After years of hesitancy, European Union (EU) member states should make 2011 the year when the lead international role in Bosnia and Herzegovina shifts from the Office of the High Representative (OHR) to a reinforced EU delegation. Bosnia has outgrown the OHR established in 1995 after the Dayton Peace Agreement and the creation of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC). Today the country needs EU technical assistance and political guidance to become a credible candidate for EU membership, not an international overseer to legislate for it or maintain security. Member states should rapidly install a comprehensive plan to reinforce the EU presence, including an embassy led by a strong ambassador, strengthen the membership perspective and build local credibility. OHR should withdraw from domestic politics and, unless a threat to peace emerges, focus on reviewing past decisions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans

3230. Improving Afghan War Strategy

Author:
Michael E. O'Hanlon
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The year 2010 in Afghanistan had some encouraging signs but on balance it was less positive than had been hoped. In 2011, therefore, it is important to do two things: first, look for further improvements in our strategy; and second, develop a backup plan, should the current approach not yield the kind of progress that is necessary and expected.
Topic:
NATO, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia