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3011. Protectors of Putin's vertical: Russian power ministries before the 2011-2012 elections

Author:
Alexander Golts
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Contrary to the traditional behaviour during the election period, the Russian government is risking irritating the security ministries and agencies by conducting extremely painful reforms in the Armed Forces and the Ministry of the Interior. However, the authorities cannot avoid such reforms because of the total inefficiency of these two “power ministries”. In the aftermath of the Russian-Georgian conflict in August 2008, the Defence Ministry decided to carry out the most radical military reform undertaken in Russia over the past 100 years. However, it is still unclear whether the reformers will be able to resolve the main problem concerning the military construction – the repeal of conscription. In contrast to the Armed Forces, the reform of the Ministry of the Interior does not even touch the major deficiencies in the law enforcement agencies, namely their centralization, lack of public control, and the prevalence of repressive functions over protection of citizens. The ongoing reform is merely a great purge. The country's leadership believes that by firing corrupt police officers, it can solve the problem of corruption in general. The reform of the Security Council and the rejection of any reform of the Ministry of the Interior troops is a prescription for possible public unrest rather than an attempt to improve inter-agency coordination. The genuine reason for these reforms is the complete exhaustion of Prime Minister Putin's model of organizing the security forces. Yet, the next president will need their complete loyalty because of the real possibility of public unrest in the next few years.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia

3012. The Political Feasibility of the Istanbul Canal Project

Author:
Mensur Akgün and Sylvia Tiryaki
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Popularly referred to as the “crazy” project, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Istanbul Canal Project has been debated vigorously since its proposal prior to the 2011 elections in the country. While some questioned its economic and ecological feasibility, others carried the discussion towards the Project's political implications. In addition to evaluating these debates, in this policy brief we discuss the Project through a historical perspective that includes the dynamics of the 1936 Montreux Convention. We argue that the feasibility of the Canal Project is valid only after certain changes are made in the application of the Montreux Convention. However, we conclude that this may lead to an outcome in which the signatories would question the legitimacy of the Convention under present conditions.
Topic:
Economics and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Turkey

3013. Turkey's 2000/1 Banking Crisis: A Case Study for the Transformation of the Greek Finance?

Author:
Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On April 2010, recently after the eruption of the Greek crisis, an unexpected hand from Turkey reached to Greece. Proud with his country's last decade growth figures, Turkey's then Vice Prime Minister, Ali Babacan, paid a visit to Greece in order to share his country's reform period after its 2000/1 crisis, arguing that it could also be a case study for Greece. In this brief, I analyzed Greek and Turkish financial crises. Although it is a mere fact that the structural problems in Greek economy complicate the reform period in Greece, there are certain lessons that Greeks can learn from the Turkish experience. As Turks did after 2001, they should see the crisis as an opportunity to overcome the long time problems . In this regard, Greeks first and foremost should establish consensus among themselves, signaling to the markets that they are ready to face the burdens of the reform period.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Greece

3014. Where Do We Stand in the Field of Nuclear Disarmament: What Is Next After the New START

Author:
Nurşin Ateşoğlu Güney
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) agreement, without any doubt, has started a new debate on whether the international community has finally entered a renaissance in the field of disarmament after a long period of stalemate. In this regard, the New START agreement, together with the New York Nuclear Safety Summit of 2010 and the NPT Review Conference of 2010, seems to be creating a rather positive atmosphere. Yet, if one examines the discussions that took place at the US and the Russian parliament's before and after the ratification of the New START, he/she will come to the conclusion that the progress on nuclear disarmament, at the levels of both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, will not be an easy one. The situation will remain unchanged unless certain contentious military issues between Washington and Moscow are somehow resolved. In this regard, the next round of the New START agreement will be crucial. This situation will not only affect the future of the US and the Russian militaries' relationships to one another, but it will also change the balance of relations among the nuclear “haves” and “have nots” of the NPT Treaty. It is, therefore, expected that the NPT's two tracks, namely disarmament and nuclear nonproliferation, will be affected either in a positive or negative way in the future, depending on the evolution of the post New START era. Within this perspective, the possibility that US and Russia will implement new disarmament agreements has gained utmost importance in the aftermath of the New START for the future implications of the US President Barack Obama's “Global Zero Policy.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and New York

3015. Antarctica: assessing and protecting Australia's national interests

Author:
Ellie Fogarty
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
International interest in Antarctica is rising. Major powers such as China and Russia have voiced their interest in the continent's resource potential, strongly suggesting the current prohibition of resource exploitation will be revisited after 2048. These developments pose a potential threat to the longevity of the Antarctic Treaty System as well as Australia's dormant claim to 42 per cent of the continent. Australia has limited Antarctic presence and capability, and posits its policy in terms of science and environmental management rather than national security. This raises questions about its ability to preserve its sovereignty claim.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Australia

3016. Turning the tide: improving access to climate financing in the Pacific Islands

Author:
Nic Maclellan
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits developed countries to provide assistance to 'developing country parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet the costs of adaptation.' Despite recent commitments of 'fast-start' climate funding from donors, Pacific Island governments face significant obstacles in accessing sufficient resources to address the adverse effects of climate change on food security, water supply, coastal management and public health. Greater international coordination is required to increase access to climate finance for small island states. Without this coordination, efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 could be set back, due to the diversion of long - term development funding to disaster response and rebuilding.
Topic:
Security, Health, and Food
Political Geography:
United Nations, Australia, and Island

3017. Living with the dragon: why Australia needs a China strategy

Author:
Alan Dupont
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
If, metaphorically, Australia rode to prosperity on the back of a sheep in the last century, our skill in riding the Chinese dragon will determine our prosperity in this century. Yet despite its obvious importance, Australia has failed to grasp the full implications of China's meteoric rise or the risk of conflict in the Western Pacific. Our approach to China is fragmented, superficial, overly focused on raw - material exports, conflicted, ambivalent and under - resourced. Getting China wrong will have seriously detrimental consequences for our future security and growth.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China and Australia

3018. Keeping Haiti Safe: Police Reform

Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Haiti's porous land and sea borders remain susceptible to drug trafficking, smuggling and other illegal activities that weaken the rule of law and deprive the state of vital revenue. Post-quake insecurity underscores continued vulnerability to violent crime and political instability. Overcrowded urban slums, plagued by deep poverty, limited economic opportunities and the weakness of government institutions, particularly the Haitian National Police (HNP), breed armed groups and remain a source of broader instability. If the Martelly administration is to guarantee citizen safety successfully, it must remove tainted officers and expand the HNP's institutional and operational capacity across the country by completing a reform that incorporates community policing and violence reduction programs.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Crime, and Natural Disasters

3019. Taking Stock: Madrasa Reform in Pakistan

Author:
Kaja Borchgrevink and Kristian Berg Harpviken
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Searching for the roots of terrorism after the attacks of 9/11, the world's attention turned to Pakistan and to Pakistan's religious schools, the “madrasas”. This put pressure on the Pakistani government to reform the madrasas and ignited a long standing debate on the role of religious education in Pakistan and its links to radicalisation and militancy. This policy brief argues that the madrasa debate is not premised on a fair description of reality. The madrasa sector is diverse. The majority of Pakistan's madrasas are moderate institutions, concerned with promoting Islamic beliefs and knowledge. This makes it important to distinguish between moderate and militant madrasas. Madrasas must be seen as part of an Islamic tradition of learning, not primarily as political groups, but rather as socio-cultural institutions that are revered by many in Pakistan today.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

3020. Fragile states: a fluid concept for peacebuilding and statebuilding

Author:
Fernanda Faria
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The “fragile states” concept is widely used in peacebuilding and statebuilding. Yet the term itself, as well as its use, is the topic of considerable debate. There is no internationally agreed definition of what is meant by fragile states. The term encompasses a number of partially overlapping yet distinct notions and labels. The models that are used to identify, measure, and monitor fragility often compare countries and situations that are so heterogeneous that the value of such comparisons is not clear.
Topic:
Political Violence, Development, Poverty, Fragile/Failed State, and Peacekeeping