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2922. Debt reduction without default?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper proposes a two-step, market-based approach to debt reduction: · Step 1.The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) would offer holders of debt of the countries with an EFSF programme (probably Greece, Ireland and Portugal = GIP) an exchange into EFSF paper at the market price prior to their entry into an EFSF-funded programme. The offer would be valid for 90 days. Banks would be forced in the context of the ongoing stress tests to write down even their banking book and thus would have an incentive to accept the offer. · Step 2. Once the EFSF had acquired most of the GIP debt, it would assess debt sustainability country by country. a) If the market price discount at which it acquired the bonds is enough to ensure sustainability, the EFSF will write down the nominal value of its claims to this amount, provided the country agrees to additional adjustment efforts (and, in some cases, asset sales). b) If under a central scenario this discount is not enough to ensure sustainability, the EFSF might agree on a lower interest rate, but with GDP warrants to participate in the upside.
- Topic:
- Debt, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
2923. The Many Faces of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
- Author:
- Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (“Tandhim Al Qaeda fi Bilad Al Maghrib Al Islami”, commonly referred to by its French acronym AQMI) is a reformed version of an Algerian terrorist group formed in September 1998, Al Jama'a Al Salafiya lil Da'wa wal Qital (Salafist Group for Predication and Combat, GSPC). Born in the context of the waning Algerian civil war that had raged in that country between 1992 and 1998, with an estimated 150,000 dead, the GSPC carried with it three consequential elements: the violent legacy of the civil war and its heavy toll on Algerian society; an entrenched radical Islamist identity prone to armed violence; and a design on the part of this group to not disarm and perpetuate its armed insurrection.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, Algeria, and North Africa
2924. Strategic Pretence or Strategic Defence? Britain, France and the Common Security and Defence Policy after Libya
- Author:
- Julian Lindley-French
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- With British and French aircraft undertaking most of the air operations over Libya and some fiftyfive years on from the Suez debacle, historical irony abounds. On November 2 2010, London and Paris agreed the Defence and Security Cooperation Treaty1 (see box below). On the face of it the accord is by and large military-technical: to develop co-operation between British and French Armed Forces, to promote the sharing and pooling of materials and equipment including through mutual interdependence, and leading to the building of joint facilities. This it is hoped will promote mutual access to each other's defence markets, through the promotion of industrial and technological co-operation. But what has the treaty to do with the European Union (EU) and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)? Does the treaty mark the first step on the road to regalvanising Europe's strategic defence or is it simply the strategic pretence of two aging, failing powers unable to accept a world that has moved on?
- Topic:
- NATO, Democratization, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Britain, France, Libya, Arabia, and North Africa
2925. Transition in Arab States: Time for an "EU-Master Plan"
- Author:
- Walter Feichtinger
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The revolts in Tunisia and Egypt were effective in ousting the regimes of Ben Ali and Mubarak, bringing rumor and protests to Yemen, Syria and other places and starting a violent revolution against Muammar Gaddafi – but it remains to be seen whether the abrupt achieved cohesion among the protesters will overcome the political transformation and bridge long existing gaps between the various groups and factions in these countries. Demonstrations in Tunisia, and also in Egypt, indicate that there is limited cohesion and tolerance within politics and civil society when it comes to tackling daily problems and finding lasting solutions.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia
2926. The Great Arab Revolution: Challenges, Dilemmas and Opportunities?
- Author:
- Graeme P. Herd
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Beyond noting the fluidity, ambiguity and ambivalence associated with the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, there is little consensus on causes and likely consequences. Do these geopolitical earthquakes constitute an “Arab Spring” leading to transition democratization, akin to 1989 in Central and Eastern Europe? Or should we look to 1979 in Iran, and the prospect of Sunni rather than Shia theocracy taking hold? Might the wider Muslim world – Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Turkey – provide alternative potential governance models for the MENA region, given indigenous variants appear exhausted and no longer able to self-reproduce? What are the lessons which other MENA incumbent regimes and the international community will identify? How might those lessons be learned?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
2927. Beyond Aid: Migration as a Tool for Disaster Recovery
- Author:
- Michael Clemens and Kaci Farrell
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes can devastate people's lives and a country's economy, particularly in the developing world. More than 200,000 people perished when a catastrophic earthquake struck Haiti in January 2010, and Americans responded with an outpouring of private and public assistance. Those relief efforts, as they nearly always do, focused primarily on delivering aid. The United States barely used another tool for disaster relief: migration policy. This policy brief explores the various legal channels through which the U.S. government could, after future overseas disasters, leverage the power of migration to help limited numbers of people. We describe what could have been done for Haiti, but the lessons apply to future scenarios.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Natural Disasters, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States
2928. Focus UNFPA: Four Recommendations for Action
- Author:
- Katie Stein
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- With a new executive director appointed in November 2010, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is in a position to re-assert its role and lead the world's effort toward landmark achievements in improving women's health and well-being. The Fund's performance will literally be a matter of life or death for millions of women and children. The numbers speak for themselves: an estimated 215 million women lack access to modern contraceptives, and there are approximately 350,000 maternal deaths each year. As the lead agency for the United Nations' work on population and reproductive health, UNFPA can reduce this terrible and unnecessary toll of lost lives.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Gender Issues, Health, and United Nations
2929. Growing Business or Development Priority? Multilateral Development Banks' Direct Support to Private Firms
- Author:
- Guillermo Perry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Direct support to private firms in developing countries constitutes a large and growing share of multilateral development banks' financial activities. This trend contrasts with the advice MDBs gave developing countries until a decade ago to privatize or liquidate the development banks supporting private firms, or to transform them into nonbanking development agencies. Opinion has changed since then, especially after development banks successfully intervened in the recent financial crisis. In this brief, Guillermo Perry assesses whether arguments in favor of such MDB direct support are valid and whether MDBs are living up to priorities coherent with such arguments. He finds that they do so only partially. His recommendations include deepening MDB support to small and medium enterprises, reducing the procyclicality of MDB lending, increasing the share of MDB loans and guarantees to private firms that are made in domestic currencies, and paying more attention to firms in infrastructure and social sectors and to those introducing new products, exports, or technologies.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
2930. Optimizing Africa's Security Force Structures
- Author:
- Helmoed Heitman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- There is much happening in Africa that is positive— economically, socially, and politically. But a large share of the continent remains fragile, putting those gains at risk. The most pressing challenges facing many African states are paramilitary threats— threats that are beyond the ability of most police forces and frequently transcend national borders. Organized crime, rural banditry, piracy, local warlords, guerrillas, ethnic and religious violence, and extremist Islamist groups are just a few of an array of such threats.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Crime, Ethnic Conflict, Poverty, Insurgency, and Piracy
- Political Geography:
- Africa