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2651. Interest Rate Shock and Sustainability of Italy's Sovereign Debt

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Contagion from Greece, together with domestic political uncertainty in Italy, caused interest rates on Italian sovereign debt to spike in the second half of 2011. As shown in figure 1, the risk spread above German bunds for 10-year Italian government bonds rose from 200 basis points in early July 2011, to a range of 300 to 400 basis points after the July 21 Greek package with its new emphasis on private sector involvement. There was a second surge to the 400 to 500 basis point range in November through January, following the October 27 Greek package that insisted on a 50 percent reduction in private sector claims.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Italy

2652. Prospects for youth-led movements for political change in Pakistan

Author:
Michael Kugelman
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This policy brief assesses the potential for two types of youth-led political change movements in Pakistan. One is an Arab Spring-like campaign, fuelled by demands for better governance and new leadership. The other is a religious movement akin to the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which seeks to transform Pakistan into a rigid Islamic state. The brief discusses the presence in Pakistan of several factors that suggest the possibility of the emergence of an Arab Spring-type movement. These include economic problems; corruption; a young, rapidly urbanising and disillusioned population; youth-galvanising incidents; and, in Imran Khan, a charismatic political figure capable of channelling mass sentiment into political change.
Topic:
Political Violence, Youth Culture, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Arabia

2653. The Private Sector and Humanitarian Relief

Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Oxfam believes that the increasing involvement of the private sector in humanitarian relief can add to overall humanitarian capacity . The private sector brings skills and competencies, and is likely to also bring new practices and perspectives to the humanitarian aid community. Any private sector involvement in humanitarian relief must conform with the humanitarian principles embodied in the Red Cross/Crescent and NGO Code of Conduct, including impartial aid based on assessed need, accountability to beneficiaries as well as donors, reduction of future vulnerability as well as immediate relief, and coordination. Oxfam recommends that humanitarian agencies pursue long-term partnerships with private sector entities, so that the private sector's engagement in humanitarian work is strategic, and not just reactive. Partnerships can be bilateral or through consortia, via a variety of modalities. Oxfam has adopted processes for its own engagement with the private sector that it recommends to other humanitarian NGOs. These include screening potential private sector partners to address ethical concerns, potential conflicts with Oxfam's mission and humanitarian principles, and conflicts of interest for the company. Pilot projects can test the working relationship and suitability/appropriateness of contributions before projects are scaled up. These principles apply to private sector humanitarian engagement, including response to natural disasters, conflicts, and complex emergencies, as well as in post-disaster recovery and reconstruction.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Markets, and Foreign Aid

2654. Gender equality: it's your business

Author:
Lauren McCarthy, Liz Kirk, and Dr Kate Grosser
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This Briefing for Business is intended for senior managers in global and national companies, especially those retailing and producing food and fast-moving consumer goods, and which source goods or labour in developing countries. Although many companies already do much to protect human rights in their operations and value chains, there is more that they can and must do.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Markets

2655. To Stay Ahead of China, Stay Engaged in Asia

Author:
Michael Beckley
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Despite the hype about the rise of China, current power trends favor continued U.S. dominance. National power has three main material components: wealth, innovation, and military power. Over the last twenty years, China has fallen further behind the United States in all of these areas.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

2656. Liquidity in times of crisis: Even the ESM needs it

Author:
Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that the new permanent European rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), should be provided with a liquidity backstop by having it registered as a bank – and be treated as such by the European Central Bank. If the crisis were to become acute again, the ESM would stand ready to intervene in secondary markets, potentially with almost unlimited amounts of funding. Access to central bank financing will be crucial in a future crisis, because in such a crisis risk aversion is likely to be extreme, and even the ESM might not be able to raise at very short notice the huge sums that might be required to prevent a breakdown of the financial system. Hundreds of billions of euro might be needed just to top up the programmes for Greece, Ireland and Portugal – and Spain and Italy may require more than a thousand billion euro. Sums of this order of magnitude cannot be raised quickly by a new institution. Simply increasing the headline size of the ESM might thus be of little use.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland

2657. Renewables and the EU Internal Electricity Market: The case for an arranged marriage

Author:
Jonas Teusch
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This Policy Brief argues that pursuing the renewables objective could contribute to the completion of the internal electricity market, help to overcome opposition to transmission projects and decrease the market power of incumbents. Conversely, an integrated internal electricity market means less price volatility in specific regional markets, which allows for more efficient deployment and grid integration of renewables.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

2658. The Migration Industry and Future Directions for Migration Policy

Author:
Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen and Ninna Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Migration has become business, big business. Over the last few decades a host of new opportunities have emerged that capitalise on migrants' desire to move as well as on governments' attempts to manage migratory flows. Across the globe we are witnessing a wide assembly of actors whose existence depends on money paid either to facilitate or to constrain migration mobility – specialised transportation companies, visa facilitation agencies, labour recruiters, security contractors, human smugglers and NGOs. The businesses involved in this migration industry range from small migrant entrepreneurs using their own experience to assist others making the journey, to big multinational companies who compete in the booming market of government contracts to carry out migration management. The commercialisation of international migration is evident at every step of the migratory process and takes place in virtually every country of emigration, transit and immigration. As such, the migration industry is not only an important phenomenon in and of itself, it also fundamentally impacts migratory flows and governments' attempts to manage or regulate migration.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, Migration, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Europe

2659. Reforming the Common Agricultural Policy in the Shadow of the WTO

Author:
Carsten Daugbjerg
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Agricultural trade became fully integrated into negotiations on trade liberalisation in the Uruguay Round commencing under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1986 and has been the cause of much discontent ever since – every major setback in the GATT and World Trade Organization (WTO) trade rounds has been caused by lack of progress in agricultural trade negotiations.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, and Food
Political Geography:
Europe

2660. Arab League's Syrian Policy

Author:
Müjge Küçükkeleş
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Suspension of Syria's Arab League membership in November 2011 could be characterized as a turning point in Arab league's 66-year old history. By condemning the Syrian and Libyan regimes for disproportionate use of violence against their own people, the Arab League has somewhat found rightful the demand of Arab people. the League has signaled with these decisions that it would move away from ideas of Arab nationalism and Arab unity in pursuit of further integration with the international system. On the other hand, the authoritarian state systems of most of the member states of the League make it difficult to regard Arab League decisions as steps supporting democracy. The League's ''democratic stance'' is an outcome of the pressure of revolutions as much as of harmony of interests among the member states. Even though strengthening democracy in the region seems like an unrealistic desire of member states, these decisions push each member towards thinking about change and thus pave the way for democratic reform process. The study at hand consists of two parts. The first part addresses the League's policy proposals, decisions, and reactions regarding the Syrian crisis and concentrates on what these all policy measures mean for the League as a regional organization. The second part examines regional dynamics that play a crucial role in the current crisis by looking at different positions of regional and global actors on the Syrian crisis.
Topic:
Political Violence, Regional Cooperation, Regime Change, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and Syria