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2621. Indonesia: Averting Election Violence in Aceh

Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In less than two months, on 9 April, Aceh will go to the polls to elect a governor and vice governor, as well as seventeen district heads and deputies. Despite rhetorical commitments on the part of all contenders to a peaceful election, the potential for isolated acts of violence between now and then is high; the potential for trouble after the results are announced may be even higher, especially if it is a close election. Getting as many trained monitors to Aceh as possible in the coming weeks is critical.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

2622. Constructing a German Europe? Germany's Europe Debate Revisited

Author:
Timo Behr and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Germany's ambiguous role during the eurozone crisis has stoked fears that a more self-confident and dynamic Germany is threatening the political independence and economic well-being of its neighbours and will lead to a “German Europe”. German weakness, not power, is the main challenge to EU integration. In order to build a supranational EU and a “European Germany”, Germans will have to overhaul their Cold War institutions and traditions that have become a brake on EU integration. Germany's political elite continues to favour a federalist vision for the EU, but faces a somewhat more sceptical public as well as strong domestic veto players, such as the Federal Constitutional Court, which limit their pro-integrationist tendency. While Germany continues to support the use of the “Community method”, Angela Merkel has increasingly resorted to the “Union method” that places function over form and prioritizes pragmatic problem-solving to address the current crisis. Germany's uncompromising attitude towards the eurozone crisis and its sometimes erratic foreign policy are the product of its deeply embedded stability culture and instinctive pacifism, rather than a sign of growing global ambitions. European partners will have to help Germany in its indispensable leadership role by jointly formulating a vision for the European integration project and by assisting Germany in adapting its political institutions and culture.
Topic:
Cold War, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2623. Russian Protest On- and Offline: The role of social media in the Moscow opposition demonstrations in December 2011

Author:
Markku Lonkila
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Social media played an important role in the Moscow opposition demonstrations in December 2011, functioning both as an alternative arena for public debate and as a tool for mobilising the protests. In a matter of months, the political atmosphere in the country changed and the legitimacy of the Russian power vertical was called into question. Even before the Duma elections in 2011, social media had turned into an alternative forum for political debate in Russia. These media frayed the image of United Russia and Vladimir Putin, politicised new audiences, and helped to form both a collective 'anti' identity and networks among the protesters. The reports of the falsification of the Duma elections circulated through social media channels and exploded into anger on the part of the betrayed voters. Social media were put to good effect when making the practical arrangements for the protests, such as financing the street demonstrations and recruiting participants. Albeit crucial in mobilising discontent, social media is less well-suited to building lasting political structures. In the longer run, the conflict-torn opposition has to transform the protests into offline organisations and decide, among other things, who can represent the street protesters in negotiations with the power-holders. Imposing strict internet control in Russia does not seem likely since the Russian urban middle class is accustomed to seeking information and expressing itself freely on the net. Removing this freedom would lead to an increase in anti-government sentiments and the intensification of protests in big Russian cities.
Topic:
Democratization, Science and Technology, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Russia and Moscow

2624. A Shift in Focus: Putting the interests of Somali people first

Author:
Ellie Kemp and Ben Murphy
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
More than six months after famine was declared by the United Nations (UN), Somaliais still in the throes of its worst humanitarian crisis in decades. More than 325,000 children are suffering acute malnutrition inside Somalia, and 31per centof the total population are estimated to be in crisis, while hundreds of thousands have fled to neighbouring countries.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, Islam, Poverty, United Nations, and Famine
Political Geography:
Africa and United Kingdom

2625. Pakistan Floods Emergency: Lessons from a continuing crisis

Author:
Shaheen Chughtai and Cate Heinrich
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The floods that began in August 2011 resulted in one of the most destructive disasters that Pakistan has experienced. More than five million people have been affected: 1.8 million people were left homeless and more than 2.2 million acres of crops were lost, resulting in agricultural losses of nearly $2 billion.
Topic:
Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

2626. A Safe and Just Space for Humanity: Can we live within the doughnut?

Author:
Kate Raworth
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Humanity's challenge in the 21st century is to eradicate poverty and achieve prosperity for all within the means of the planet's limited natural resources. In the run-up to Rio+20, this discussion paper presents a visual framework – shaped like a doughnut – which brings planetary boundaries together with social boundaries, creating a safe and just space between the two, in which humanity can thrive. Moving into this space demands far greater equity – within and between countries – in the use of natural resources, and far greater efficiency in transforming those resources to meet human needs.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, Poverty, and Natural Resources

2627. Fit for Purpose? The European External Action Service one year on

Author:
Steven Blockmans, Natalia Alonso, and Tidhar Wald
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The first anniversary of the European External Action Service (EEAS) finds the European Union (EU) in the midst of an economic, financial, and identity crisis that has aggravated the ongoing decline in Europe's stature on the global scene as new political and economic actors emerge. The new diplomatic service provides the EU with an opportunity to address its shortcomings in foreign policy by bringing greater coherence to external policy making; by enhancing consistency across EU instruments; and by adopting a more comprehensive and strategic approach to global challenges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

2628. Left Behind by the G20? How inequality and environmental degradation threaten to exclude poor people from the benefits of economic growth

Author:
Kate Raworth, Caroline Pearce, and Richard Gower
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In 2010, the G20 committed themselves to promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth. They argued that 'for prosperity to be sustained it must be shared' and also endorsed 'green growth', which promises to decouple economic expansion from environmental degradation. But G20 countries have some way to go to match this commitment. This paper assesses their record, and points the way forward.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty

2629. A Dangerous Delay: The cost of late response to early warnings in the 2011 drought in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Debbie Hillier and Benedict Dempsey
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The 2011 crisis in the Horn of Africa has been the most severe emergency of its kind this century. More than 13 million people are still affected, with hundreds of thousands placed at risk of starvation. One estimate suggests that 50,000–100,000 people have died. This crisis unfolded despite having been predicted. Although brought on by drought, it was human factors which turned the crisis into a deadly emergency.
Topic:
Development, Non-Governmental Organization, United Nations, and Famine
Political Geography:
Africa

2630. Stepping up Growth Policies

Author:
Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The eurozone is in recession and will show negative growth in 2012; GDP will fall sharply in Greece and Portugal, and there is substantial risk that Spain and Italy will follow suit (the Commission's recent forecasts seem overly optimistic and complacent; the IMF is more downbeat). But fiscal policies are uniformly restrictive throughout the eurozone and much of the Union, and the hopes that fiscal consolidation could spur growth by improving household and business confidence are not materialising. In reality, domestic demand has been hit too hard by fiscal consolidation, and investment throughout the Union remains well below pre- crisis levels. Credit is tight due to the deteriorating quality of borrowers and the ongoing deleveraging in banking.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece