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2512. Much ado about nothing? State-controlled entities and the change in German investment law
- Author:
- Thomas Jost
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- The rise of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) -- together state-controlled entities (SCEs) -- has led to concerns that SCEs could threaten national security by following political rather than mere commercial goals with respect to their foreign direct investment (FDI). While developed countries acknowledged that the rise of SCEs should not lead to new barriers to FDI, several have changed their legislation to expand government oversight of FDI flows. In 2009, Germany also tightened its foreign investment regime. What are the first experiences with this change in German investment law?
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
2513. Poland: Industry Forecast
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- GDP is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2012 and expand by 2.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 3.2% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2012 and expand by 5.3% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 4.3% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 25.4% in 2011 to 27.2% by 2016 and increase to 28.7% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to decline from 58.5% in 2011 to 57.2% in 2016 and fall to 56.2% in 2021.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
2514. China: Industry Forecast
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- GDP is expected to rise by 7.9% in 2012 and expand by 8.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 7.8% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 8.8% in 2012 and expand by 9.4% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 7.9% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 34.0% in 2011 to 35.1% by 2016 and increase to 35.6% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to expand from 41.7% in 2011 to 43.8% in 2016 and rise to 45.5% in 2021.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
2515. Country Economic Forecasts: Thailand
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- GDP expanded by 11% on the quarter in Q1 in seasonally adjusted terms, recovering strongly after contracting by more than 10% on the same basis in Q4 when flooding decimated the manufacturing sector. But compared with a year earlier, the economy expanded by just 0.3% in Q1, illustrating the scale of the catastrophe.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Thailand and Southeast Asia
2516. Country Economic Forecasts: Germany
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The German economy is clearly slowing in the face of the latest phase of the Eurozone crisis. We expect the impact of the crisis on business investment and exports to cause the economy to contract in Q2 before recovering slowly in H2. As a result, GDP growth is now forecast to slow to 0.7% in 2012 overall from 3.1% last year, before accelerating to 1.4% in 2013.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
2517. Country Economic Forecasts: Czech Republic
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- GDP fell by a larger than expected 1% on the quarter in 2012Q1 according to initial data released in mid-May. As a result, we now expect GDP will fall 1.1% in 2012. On the political side, the government has avoided a snap election by surviving a confidence vote on 27 April. However, it will find it harder to stick to its austerity plans as its majority was weakened by the vote. Under current policies, we now expect the fiscal deficit to rise to 3.6% of GDP in 2012 from 3.1% in 2011 due to the weakness of the economy.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Czech Republic
2518. Zero: The Surprising and Unambiguous Policy Relevance of the Cuban Missile Crisis
- Author:
- Janet M. Lang and James G. Blight
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Herman Kahn was one of the most eminent nuclear strategists of the early Cold War period. He advised Presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy while working at the RAND Corporation, and also wrote one of the most controversial bestsellers of the era, Thinking about the Unthinkable. Reading it is shocking even today, as one encounters the concepts Kahn made famous, such as megadeath (a nuclear war killing tens or hundreds of millions of people); escalation dominance (threatening to blow up the world if an adversary does not relent); the doomsday machine (US-Soviet nuclear arsenals that, if used, would blow up the world, no matter what leaders might desire); and use 'em or lose 'em (striking first in a nuclear war to destroy the enemy's forces). No wonder the title role in Stanley Kubrick's black satiric film Dr. Strangelove (1964) is reportedly based on the real Herman Kahn. But Kahn himself always said he was merely being realistic, facing directly the terrifying new reality created by the existence of the ultimate weapon.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States and Cuba
2519. Beyond Treaties: Immediate Steps to Reduce Nuclear Dangers
- Author:
- James M. Acton
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The U.S. political parties are divided on nuclear weapons policy. Meanwhile, the United States and Russia have reached an arms control impasse and no new agreement is on the horizon. Confidence-building measures could help reduce nuclear risks between the United States and Russia, advancing the goals of both countries and both U.S. presidential candidates.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
2520. Islamic Militancy in Africa
- Author:
- Terje Østebø
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The rise of Islamic militancy in parts of the Sahel and Horn of Africa poses growing threats to regional stability. The appeal of these militants stems from their ability to tap into and persuade marginalized communities, particularly youth, that their grievances can be rectified by the establishment of a more pure Islamist culture. Despite breakthroughs, Islamic militants in Africa typically do not possess great military power and may not seek to govern at the state level. Rather, they tend to be homegrown phenomena, focused on local concerns. Islamic militant organizations in Africa generally only command the support of small minorities within Muslim communities. However, ill-considered interventions, especially those involving Western forces, can reinforce the militants' narrative, thereby strengthening their credibility and recruitment.
- Topic:
- Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Africa