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231. Health sovereignty: How to build a resilient European response to pandemics

Author:
Jonathan Hackenbroich, Jeremy Shapiro, and Tara Varma
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The coronavirus affected EU member states in different ways and to different extents, but almost all found that their public health relied, more than they understood, on goods or services from third countries. This reliance undermined Europe’s capacity to respond autonomously. The EU bodies coordinating the response and providing an early warning system were slow to act and requests for aid from EU member states went unheeded, creating feelings of abandonment among the worst-hit countries. Europe must improve its early warning systems, supply chain resilience, medical research and development, and cyber security and technology, to act decisively in future public health emergencies. Europe can build greater health security by creating common strategic stocks, diversifying and reshoring supply chains, strengthening investment protection in innovative companies, investing in R&D, and coordinating efforts in multilateral forums.
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Crisis Management, Pandemic, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

232. A return to Africa: Why North African states are looking south

Author:
Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
North African countries, each for their own reasons, are increasingly turning their attention towards sub-Saharan Africa. Morocco is pursuing a comprehensive campaign to increase its influence and win support with regard to Western Sahara. Algeria may be showing new flexibility in its response to security threats to its south. Tunisia is beginning to look for new economic opportunities in Africa. Egypt is responding to a series of strategic concerns, particularly over the waters of the Nile. Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia are also all dealing with increased migration flows, with migrants seeking to work on their territories or pass through it to reach Europe. This North African turn to sub-Saharan Africa offers opportunities for European cooperation. But the EU should be aware of the distinctive agendas of North African countries and the reservations that their initiatives engender in some countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Migration, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, North Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

233. In sickness and in health: European cooperation during the coronavirus crisis

Author:
Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
ECFR research into how EU member states and institutions worked together – or failed to – at the height of covid-19 confirms Germany was the bloc’s undisputed crisis leader. Germany made a shaky start in showing solidarity on the pandemic, but regained other member states’ trust on the health and economy fronts. The Netherlands, however, paid a reputational price as the leading ‘frugal’ state opposing greater financial burden-sharing. EU institutions won few plaudits but policymakers still look to it for post-crisis economic leadership. France emerged at the head of a strengthened ‘southern’ grouping of member states, while the Visegrad platform was invisible during this crisis. It will fall to Germany and France to close the north-south divide, building coalitions on major policies. But they should not forget that closing the east-west divide remains an important goal.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Health Care Policy, European Union, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

234. The Brexit parenthesis: Three ways the pandemic is changing UK politics

Author:
Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The shock of covid-19 in Britain may end the culture-wars politics set off by the Brexit referendum – which split the country between Leave and Remain, town and city, old and young. Many people had lent their votes to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives for cultural reasons, in spite of the fact that they were closer to the opposition Labour Party on economic issues. Covid-19 might cause a rethink, as voters expect competence from the government. Counterintuitively, both Leavers and Remainers are open to a leftist domestic agenda and greater cooperation with international partners – issues on which Labour is normally strong. Covid-19 has caused voters to take a dimmer view of previously touted post-Brexit trade partners like the US and China. They think more highly of countries such as Germany. The battleground will be ‘Red Wall defectors’ – voters who gave Johnson his 2019 general election landslide but who are reassessing what matters to them after Brexit. A politics divided along the lines of Leavers and Remainers could disappear as quickly as it appeared – but the Conservatives may nevertheless attempt to stoke the divisions of 2016 that secured them Brexit.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Brexit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

235. Demonstration effects: How the Hirak protest movement is reshaping Algerian politics

Author:
Amel Boubekeur
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Hirak protest movement has revealed flaws in Algeria’s ruling system, which lacks the tools to reinvent itself or negotiate a new social contract with the people. The army has been unable to restore the “civilian president” narrative it used for two decades, while the current president has been unable to disguise his dependence on the military leadership. The regime can no longer use rigged elections as a substitute for negotiations with citizens. The regime is trying to promote a narrative on the removal of mafias connected with the former president as a guarantee of a new era. The Hirak has created a political culture of popular empowerment, but it still has to agree on a road map for a political transition.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Social Movement, Elections, Protests, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:
Algeria and North Africa

236. Networks of impunity: Corruption and European foreign policy

Author:
Chris Raggett
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
European governments have failed to prevent corrupt actors from laundering hundreds of billions of dollars through the international financial system and their own economies. This breakdown in the rule of law empowers kleptocratic regimes across the globe, which capitalise on the political culture underpinning Europe’s approach to globalisation. Western governments create a negative feedback loop that hinders their foreign policy initiatives when they treat corruption in other countries as an inherent part of the local culture. European policymakers should aim to catch up with, and overtake, their US counterparts on anti-money laundering regulation and enforcement. European countries should create national institutions – and an international coalition of Western states – that are dedicated to countering kleptocrats.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, European Union, Rule of Law, Financial Crimes, and Impunity
Political Geography:
Europe

237. Digital stability: How technology can empower future generations in the Middle East

Author:
Manuel Langendorf
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The growth of the digital economy in the Middle East and North Africa could become one of the key solutions to the region’s youth unemployment crisis. Governments in the region have taken steps to create an environment in which technology startups can thrive. However, they need to overcome challenges such as flaws in their education systems, bureaucratic inefficiency, and a lack of funding for new businesses. Digitisation not only creates new opportunities for employment and political participation but also enables digital authoritarianism in the region. Europeans must help construct the region’s digital infrastructure, to prevent China from popularising its internet governance model there. The European Union should support the digitisation drive in the Middle East and North Africa through regulation, capacity-building, and funding.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Political stability, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

238. Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus

Author:
Julien Barnes-Dacey
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
After nine years of conflict, the US is mounting a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Syria, seeking the regime’s demise. But, with Assad having effectively won the war, he is unlikely to succumb to US economic pressure. Assad bears responsibility for the country’s freefall but this strategy will further accelerate societal collapse, especially as coronavirus looms, and will not deliver a transition. European governments should pivot to a longer-term strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future aligned with European interests. This should include increased – and cautious – support to them within government-controlled Syria. The unpredictability of the Trump administration means persuading the US down this track is not impossible – Europeans should seek to influence Washington to widen space for societal support.
Topic:
Sanctions, Conflict, Syrian War, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

239. A problem shared: Russia and the transformation of Europe’s eastern neighbourhood

Author:
Dumitru Minzarari and Vadim Pistrinciuc
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The EU’s Eastern Partnership policy is set to receive an update rather than an upgrade consummate with current geopolitical pressures. The Eastern Partnership’s central flaw is its design, which allows local political elites to build ‘facade democracy’. Core to democratic transformation are genuine rule of law reform and strong security against external threats. Adopting a new ‘shared sovereignty’ model would allow the EU into Eastern Partnership states to push through reform, guarantee the rule of law, and expose evasive local elites. Failure to strengthen Eastern Partnership states in this way could strengthen Russia and allow authoritarianism to diffuse westward into the EU. The EU should make shared sovereignty the basis for future Eastern Partnership relations, building on the momentum of the new accession process secured by France.
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Partnerships, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

240. The post-coronavirus world is already here

Author:
Josep Borrell
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The pandemic will likely magnify existing geopolitical dynamics and test the strength of Europe’s democratic systems. Europe needs a new kind of globalisation capable of striking a balance between the advantages of open markets and interdependence, and between the sovereignty and security of countries. Europe should work to prevent the US-China rivalry from having negative repercussions in certain regions of the world – particularly Africa. European leaders need to focus on meeting the immediate needs of healthcare systems, providing an income for people who cannot work, and giving businesses guarantees. The European model will only mean something in the eyes of the world if we can successfully promote solidarity among EU member states.
Topic:
Globalization, Geopolitics, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, and United States of America