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2261. Our bond market, your problem?

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Comments from the US Federal Reserve aimed at signalling that monetary policy cannot stay at historically low levels indefinitely have caused bond yields and credit spreads to rise both in the US and abroad. Higher borrowing rates are particularly inappropriate for the Eurozone which, unlike the US, is still struggling to emerge from recession. This tightening of financial conditions will place pressure on the ECB to act. Although surveys show that investors' bearishness on US government bonds is at an extreme level, suggesting that in the coming weeks bond yields are more likely to fall than rise, the longer-term trend in bond yields is now upwards. But we do not expect the rise in yields over the next two or three years to kill off the US recovery. Consequently, we believe that the US equity market is still on an upward uptrend, albeit one that will experience regular spikes in volatility as the Fed gradually moves away from its ultra-loose policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2262. Faster taper – limited impact

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Markets took fright after Ben Bernanke's press conference on 19 June at the prospect of an early end to QE. Bond purchases might be tapered off sooner, as the Fed now expects unemployment to fall to its target of 6.5% next year rather than in 2015. It is not yet clear whether any of the bonds bought as part of QE will eventually be sold off. While it is obvious that an end to the Fed's purchases will have an impact on output growth and asset prices, our Global Economic Model shows that the effects will be limited.
Topic:
Markets, Global Recession, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

2263. Why the ECB should cut borrowing costs in periphery

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The European Central Bank has postponed any plans to introduce targeted measures to reduce the cost of borrowing for small and medium-sized businesses in the credit-starved peripheral Eurozone economies. Given the widening gap between the lower costs of borrowing for companies in Germany and France and the higher costs in the periphery, we think that there is a strong case for the ECB to take action. Simulations using our Global Macroeconomic Model show that if half the tightening in credit conditions seen since 2008 were to be reversed within two years, Eurozone GDP would be 0.7% higher by the end of 2017 than under our baseline forecast. There would be over 400,000 fewer people unemployed. This would be particularly beneficial for peripheral Eurozone risk assets.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2264. UK housing market: bellows to a bubble?

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The housing market is recovering, according to recent price and activity data. Post-crisis price corrections were smaller in the UK than in the US and much of Europe, and demand is now being bolstered by the government's Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes. This has given rise to some worries that the UK is in danger of inflating another house price bubble. While housing supply is very tight, we are not convinced that these schemes will have enough impact on demand to cause prices to take off.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

2265. The case for rising US corporate capex

Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Shifts in financial balances between sectors of the economy are worth watching because they can signal broader cyclical changes. The US household financial balance turned negative in Q1. But that was mainly due to distortions in income related to tax increases in 2013. Taking the average of Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, households still have a positive balance. More importantly, the conditions are in place for a rise in capital expenditure (capex) by the corporate sector. This would allow both household and public sector savings to increase. It would also mean an upside risk to our main scenario for the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

2266. A Turkish Perspective on Security Issues in the Mediterranean

Author:
Şadi Ergüvenç
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The Mediterranean is where the atmosphere of mutual distrust, fear and polarization prevail. Arab Israeli dispute and Turkish Greek differences over the Aegean and Cyprus impede efforts for developing mutual confidence and co operation. Recently, economic and financial crises and the “Arab Risings” have brought along more reasons for concern. Islamophobia and racism versus Islamic jihadism increase the risk of confrontation. Turkey together with Spain appeals for an “Alliance of Civilizations” and exploits its double identity, European and Muslim, through a proactive and multilateral poli cy for finding peaceful solutions to chronic regional solutions. Greece and Greek Cypriot governments should refrain from unilateral attempts to declare maritime borders.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

2267. Policy and practice requirements for bringing to scale sexual violence services in low resource settings.

Author:
N Kilonzo, E Dartnall, and M Obbayi
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:
As many as seven in ten women in the world report experiencing physical and/or sexual violence at some point in their lifetime [1]. The impact of sexual violence on health, productivity, economy and a country's ability to achieve its development goals is well documented [2]. States have a responsibility to enact and enforce laws that protect their citizens from sexual violence. Where protection fails, there is a responsibility to provide survivors with the requisite services to address the physiological, psychological consequences and ensure they receive positive justice outcomes. However, few countries have the policy, legal environments and service infrastructure to respond or influence uptake of health, social and justice related services by survivors of sexual violence [3]. For example, 127 countries still do not have effective laws on marital rape even though it is a crime under international law [4]. Cultural beliefs and societal responses can be major barriers to victims seeking help post assault. A range of sectors are required to deliver services to survivors of sexual violence including health, criminal justice and social services [5, 6]. In many countries around the world, post rape care is often fragmented, of limited scope, coverage and quality, focusing mainly on immediate clinical care with poor medico-legal linkages [3], with limited attention given to mental health needs of survivors and service providers [7, 8]. Follow up and long-term management of sexual and reproductive health including HIV outcomes of survivors is severely lacking.
Topic:
Crime, Development, Gender Issues, Health, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Health Care Policy

2268. Five Pillars of a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post 2014

Author:
Khalid Aziz
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Most of the conditions for a successful transition into a stable Afghanistan would require appropriate bureaucratic and institutional mechanisms to ensure that the momentum for change is harnessed and that timely follow-ups take place. The major parties with stakes in the security of Afghanistan will need a roadmap and a framework for achieving the policy outcomes identified in this policy brief.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

2269. How to Reduce Migrant Worker Recruitment Costs

Author:
Philip Martin
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Recruitment matches workers with jobs, a process that is often complicated by asymmetric information, viz. employers know more about the jobs they are offering than job seekers, who know more about their abilities than employers. Economists have developed a variety of models to explain how employers screen applicants to find the workers best suited to fill the jobs they offer, and how workers signal their ability to employers by earning degrees and certificates.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Migration, and Labor Issues

2270. Women in Conflict Mediation: Why It Matters

Author:
Andrea Ó Súilleabháin and Marie O'Reilly
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Traditional approaches to international conflict mediation—in which statesmen hammer out agreements between governments, or between governments and well-defined rebel movements—are falling short in the face of 21st century violence. Interstate conflict has decreased dramatically, and today one off civil wars with clearly defined parties are relatively rare: 90 percent of civil wars occur in countries already affected by conflict. Despite international efforts to mediate and implement peace agreements, between a quarter and a half of all civil wars recur within five years.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, War, and Peacekeeping